Are you a Quiet Speculation member?
If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.
I don’t know about you, but I’ve done exactly one Modern Masters draft so far and really enjoyed it. I don’t seem to be the only one. The set has been a hit as we expected and there’s a ton of anecdotal evidence of people going nuts for the chance to draft it.
More importantly, I’ve also seen a lot of people trying to fill play sets after opening one or two cards from the set. That solidifies my belief that we won't see huge drops for the big rares and (especially) mythics.
But as is the case with any set, there are some things that didn’t make the cut, and that means investment opportunities. There’s also plenty of stuff in the set that provides opportunities for profit, and today I want to explore some of those. I simply don’t have enough room to cover everything that isn’t in the set but could see movement, so instead I want to focus on a few I feel are particularly good targets.
Preliminary Price Movement
As expected, uncommons like Kitchen Finks and Spell Snare are coming down in price and will likely continue to do so for a few more weeks until the supply of Modern Masters slows down.
I think the play here is to keep a close eye on the index of these to try and spot the bottom, which I don’t think will be too difficult to do. Because we’re a long way from Modern season, it’s not like there will be a bottom and then a hard spike. Instead, there will be a bottom followed by a gradual increase until Modern season, at which point I think we see a correction upward.
That means a lot of money can be made on these cards if people start trading them too low. $5 Finks today can easily be $8-10 again next season if the player base grows the way it seems to be headed. Of course, while Finks is one example, I think Spell Snare would be a better target because Finks is neutered somewhat by the introduction of Scavenging Ooze into the format.
Even rares have seen downward movement. Cryptic Command dropped $5 or so since it was spoiled. Again, I think these are temporary moves, and the tipping point is probably right after GP Vegas next week (which I’ll be at!). I think the market will be most flooded after that event and we’ll see a bottom before the inevitable rise.
Moving onto the mythics, we’re not seeing much movement at all, again as I expected. Dark Confidant is moving some, but its price has been quite volatile for a few months already. Elspeth, Knight-Errant, Tarmogoyf and Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker are barely moving at all, and I expect that to remain mostly true moving forward.
Big Misses
Now, let’s move onto some individual cards.
This is a big one. Up to this point it has played second fiddle to Spell Snare in terms of pricing, but that’s going to flip now, and this will keep going up, barring an unforeseen reprint. At $10 right now, it could easily push toward $15 next season.
Another big miss from the set. This thing has moved upwards of $7, and there’s no reason to think it won’t be $10 in six months.
With additional Cryptics entering the market, the barrier to entry for this particular combo deck comes down quite a bit. With Storm and Eggs nearly banned out of the format, there could also be more combo players flocking toward the Goblin Mountaineers.
I like Scapeshift and Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle both to tick up some in this case. Primeval Titan could as well, though that’s certainly more speculative since it’s not quite as proven (the weird turn two Titan deck not withstanding).
I want to talk about this one because I don’t see it as an opportunity. I think it’s super odd of Wizards to leave out such an expensive card when it’s not particularly hard to slot in as a reprint for Modern Masters. That, and some language from WoTC regarding Modern cards already being slotted for sets, makes me believe that we’re seeing Cashseize reprinted elsewhere. I’m staying away from this one.
Here we have a solid staple card that, due to its keyword, won’t be in another set for a while. It’s a pretty easy play to pick these up in anticipation of it having nowhere to go but up.
Another card I’m surprised wasn’t in the set. There has been some speculation about this being in M14 to help support slivers, or even in Theros.
I’m not sure about all that, but there’s no reason to take undue risk. Wait at least a few weeks to find out about M14, and longer if you want to see about Theros. I don’t think there’s any big upward or downward pressure on its price in the meantime. The movement that will come will be closer to Modern season, so a wait-and-see approach on this one may be right.
That said, if we don’t see a reprint it’s going nowhere but up.
Deathrite Shaman has pooped on Hierarch a little bit in the last eight months, but it’s been very stable at just under $30. I think Birds of Paradise and Deathrites keep this from climbing at the rate it has the past two years, but I also don’t think the price is coming down either. That makes this more of a hold than a buy to me.
Mutavault is going to be in M14 according to latest spoils on MTGSalvation.
OMG Mutavault in std again!!! I like where this game is going. Just need counterspell to be std and modern again!!!!
Just saw this! Glad I addressed it in the article already 🙂
Good article, I enjoyed the read. Is the writing on the wall that all of the cards above will eventually be reprinted within the next year? Feels like speculation on these is like playing the lottery unless you acquire and unload these in between spoiled sets. As you hinted, I’m not sure any of these will rise before the late fall when everyone starts thinking about Modern.
Thanks! I’m not sure there’s writing on the wall about the mid-level stuff, but Mutavault and Thoughtseize are more risky. Now that we’re seeing Mutavault in M14, this makes sense. I’d probably be staying away from Thoughtseize and put that money into some of the other targets here.
A lot of this has already been covered in previous articles and at length in the forums, but I do appreciate the “misses” section. I especially like Chord of Calling (people are starting to build podless pod-type decks) and Aven Mindcensor (main deckable hate against pod and anything with saclands). A while ago I started a thread called “What CAN’T Be Reprinted in Modern Masters” to keep tabs on all of the cards that will definitely go up in demand but will not go up in supply before the next Modern season. I would like to see even more discussion on that subject.
Of all the big money cards in MM, Vendilion Clique looks to me like it is losing the most value the quickest – a $50 is now $40. It looks like is may already be showing signs of bouncing back, but I wonder why it took a 20% drop when Goyf has hardly moved and Bob has only lost $5 down to $55.
Clique was never as good in modern as in Legacy, so its price was kind of inflated.
Fair points. There’s also the Judge promo putting more copies of Clique on the market.