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Insider: Looking Where Others Aren’t

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When looking for opportunities in MTG Finance, I like to look at various and obscure sources. Everyone's looking at Khans of Tarkir and Standard right now, but I've been taking the time lately to go through some random sets on Trader Tools. It's interesting what kinds of easy money can be found.

azoriuscharmcuombajjwitcheshatred

Any store, any set, any printing, and any card could randomly allow you to make some free dollars just by taking the time to arrange it.

Quiet Speculation's Sigmund Ausfresser has written quite a bit about arbitrage, so I won't go into the details too much. Suffice it to say that 28 copies of the Archenemy Azorius Signet above is buylisting to AdventuresOn for $0.99 and you can pick them up for half that on TCGplayer. That's around $14 to the first person who takes the time to do this.

The sortable spread in Trader Tools makes this kind of research easy, and yet I've noticed some negative spreads sit for weeks without anybody picking up the opportunity.

Of course, I understand the sentiment of not wanting to risk placing an order on TCGplayer and finding that someone else beat you to the buylist only to leave you stuck with a pile of cards nobody really wants. But if you're willing to grind for a few extra bucks, or just buy enough collections that you see a ton of cards, it's worth knowing what's out there.

Modern Masters 2

Modern Masters was announced during Pro Tour Return to Ravnica, and I fully, 100 percent, expect Modern Masters 2 to be announced during Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir. What does this mean for Modern speculation?

Well, first of all, anything that wasn't reprinted in Modern Masters or a subsequent set is dangerous. The immediate cards that come to mind in this category are Ignoble Hierarch and Grove of the Burnwillows. These have both climbed quite a bit over the last couple years, and I expect them to be top headliners for MM2.

The upcoming announcement should do interesting things to the Modern market. On one hand, people will be worried about key cards being reprinted, potentially leading to collection sales and dropping prices. On the other hand, we've seen what a Modern Masters set can do to incite excitement over the format, so I would not be surprised to see more price spikes due to increased interest. Much of it will come down to WOTC marketing.

In the meantime, I'm holding off on Modern speculation to some extent. Cards like Blinkmoth Nexus seem poised to spike, except for the fact that Modern Masters 2 is right around the corner. Of course, this particular card might be safe if infect is not a strategy included in MM2. But in general, it seems dangerous to be buying into Modern cards in any significant way—and especially if you have long-term plans in mind for them.


Conspiracy

It's clear that Wizards printed a lot of Conspiracy, considering low box and single prices. However, anecdotally, I have not seen a ton of it being drafted at any of my local LGSs. I wonder if to some extent prices have dropped too far, especially the original printings.

stifle

misdirection

exploration

I'm not rushing out to put money down on these cards, but if I happen to see any in trade binders, this seems like the time to pick them up.

The original printings have not gotten any rarer, and there is definitely a demand for old-bordered cards, especially among Legacy players. Foils might be an even better target, but I am hardly an expert in shiny cards and will defer that recommendation to those who are.

It's worth noting that some cards in the set, such as Swords to Plowshares and Reflecting Pool are the least expensive versions of these cards available, often by a wide margin. Reflecting Pool is half the price of its Shadowmoor counterpart, despite having the same border and artwork. This has always been a high-priced card while in Standard, so picking up a playset at this time could pay off if the card is reprinted in the next few years.

conspiracies

This ship has probably sailed on the conspiracy and "draft matters" foils, but the non-foils are pretty cheap and a couple even have negative spreads. Cube has been getting more popular in the last few years, so if you expect that trend to continue, these could be reasonably safe long-term bets—it's unlikely they'll be reprinted, as a potential Conspiracy 2 would likely want to have new cards to offer. Again, I'm not looking to buy out TCGplayer, but I'll snag them out of binders whenever I get a chance.


One last Conspiracy spotlight: Edric, Spymaster of Trest got some attention just before the release of Journey into Nyx due to seeing play in Legacy (I believe in BUG Delver decks). The card was previously only printed in Commander and Commander's Arsenal, meaning supply was low, so it shot up to more than $20 for a short time.

Conspiracy crushed the card's price, and it now averages $1.45 on TCGplayer. It hasn't been showing up a ton in Legacy since earlier this year, but the power level of this card is certainly there. I'm not sure it should be a dollar rare, and I expect it to quickly climb from that price the next time it makes a top eight appearance.

At the very least, now seems like a great time to buy any copies you might want for Cube or Commander, and that includes in cash. I am a fan of Edric at $1.50.

Switching Focus

With everyone focused on Khans of Tarkir and what the new Standard is going to look like, I'm looking at other opportunities that aren't getting so much attention. With new sets, the best way to make a profit is to be on the ball with everything, being faster than the numerous other people trying to make the same moves you are.

By changing focus to topics not currently in the spotlight, we give ourselves a little more breathing room to work at a relaxed pace. That means a lot to me, and if matters to you, try switching your own focus at set releases.

5 thoughts on “Insider: Looking Where Others Aren’t

  1. Good article, and I like the idea of articles looking where others are not, very cool. Really solid call on the conspiracies gaining value down the road for cube players. I feel like looking at Magic history it’s nearly impossible to believe a ‘Conspiracy 2’ will ever happen, conspiracy is done-supplement blocks are the one time a year the design team gets to leave the traditional structure of design for the game. I also kinda doubt Modern Masters 2, since Wizards has never done a ‘part 2’ in paper of any set- but I suppose this would be the set to do it for. ‘Returns’ are to worlds not formats. I think the design team yawns (I don’t blame them) at the idea of a ‘part 2’ series of reprints. I see a mass reprint coming but I fail to see a ‘part 2’ on paper unless WOTC has gotten that tired. A lot of reprints for Modern (maybe more than Modern Masters) coming in Summer, but I think Wizards might be more creative and less caring of Modern than people are giving them credit for.

  2. I’m not sure if I should publicly recommend doing this, but I feel it’s a legitimate practice. Place the buy and sell order simultaneously. Most stores allow a number of days grace period between receipt of buylist order and mailing date. If you order the cards, submit the buy list, and ship as soon as you’re able, i think you’re in the clear.

    1. You could also just try placing the buy and sell order at the same time, but set the shipping address in the buy order to the address where you’re selling to.

  3. You pretty much touched on it in your article but it is worth noting that besides the opportunity to arbitrage being familiar with the cards that have very low (or even negative) spreads from each set really pays off when looking at collections or making trades. If you take two cards that retail for $10 but you trade one that buy lists at 50% of retail for a card that buylists at 85% you essentially made $3.5 on that trade. I’m always on the lookout for cards with low spreads, unfortunately that’s usually indicative of there being really high demand. Usually people intuitively “feel” they should not trade a 50% buylist for a 85% buylist even if they can’t put it into words or know nothing about buy lists since they are usually the most talked about cards. It really pays dividends when buying a collection if you can recognize (or don’t recognize and pass) a few of those low spread cards that you know will buylist well.

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