In the long list of differences between paper Magic and MTGO, a list that I find longer every time I think about it, we can include speculations around the release of new sets.

As far as I know, pre-ordering is a notion that doesn't exist on MTGO. In the digital world of Magic you have to wait for the prerelease events to start, you can't pre-order a playset one month in advance. For Khans of Tarkir it all started last week on MTGO.

With no possibility of pre-ordering, everything starts with a Big Bang with the digital cards. During the first days prices are extremely high due to a combined effect of a very limited supply and a pretty high demand from Constructed deck builders.

Prices decrease rapidly as boosters are opened by the thousands and cards start flooding the market. The majority of the rares will slowly head to an absolute bottom of ~0.05 Tix that should be reached around December. This downward trend is also mostly true with mythics. Only one or two mythics per set at most won't head down after their release and until the following winter.

While tempting, speculating on a fall set is a rather risky strategy. At best if you are a very talented metagame reader and can anticipate the Pro Tour results, which decks are the real deal and which are flukes, you may have a shot at making some Tix.

Don't Fall for the Fall Set

After three and a half years of investment on MTGO I came to realize that when a new fall set is released on MTGO the goal is not to focus on this particular set but to actually focus on previous sets. This is also mostly true for the following sets of the block, but in my experience there's definitely more money to be lost than gained with the fall set.

Rare Prices Are Going to Dip for Months

Fall sets are the most drafted sets on MTGO. Khans of Tarkir is going to be drafted as the newest set and as a triple booster format for about four months. By comparison M15 was the newest set for only two months. The 2nd and 3rd set of a regular block, even if smaller sets, are usually drafted with a 1-1-2 or 1-2-3 draft structure, which still supplies a lot of the first set cards.

The supply for Khans of Tarkir is therefore going to be heavy and constant for dozen of weeks. Khans of Tarkir supply will finally slow down only when players are getting bored and switching to M15 or THS/BNG/JOU for better EV or for a different draft format.

This implies an inevitable pressure on prices. Even for in-demand rares prices will go down for a while. Not even Snapcaster Mage, not even the RTR shock lands or Deathrite Shaman or Abrupt Decay or Thoughtseize sustained their price, let alone saw a price increase during the first two to four months. Nor will the fetchlands escape this price hammering.

With Theros and its Pro Tour, which was the first Standard Pro Tour right after the format rotation, a couple of rares resisted the trend for a little bit. Hero's Downfall started at ~4 Tix, followed by a nice spike at ~10 Tix about a week after the PT, went back to earth three weeks later and finally kept losing steam until last summer when the black instant was priced at ~1.5 Tix.

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx and Thoughtseize also resisted a bit the declining trend for a couple of days. No rare from Theros was found more expensive in December than two or three weeks after release.

One of my beginner's mistakes back in 2011 during Innistrad days was to acquire rares within the first months and trying to anticipate a rebound from future winners. I notably bought Snapcaster Mage at 12 Tix and Bloodgift Demon at 1 Tix. Needless to say I didn't make money of these "specs".

...So Will Most Mythic Prices

Rares can't fight the massive flow of supply the first months. Mythics are a little less sensitive to supply pressure--nonetheless the majority of the fifteen mythics in a new fall set are bound to lose value over the first months after release. Only a few exceptions will gain significant value before December, such as Sphinx's Revelation, Geist of Saint Traft and Olivia Voldaren.

When looking at the Mythic indexes of Innistrad, Return to Ravnica and Theros between October and December you can see that they are mostly flat. Meaning that if you have a small numbers of gainers all the other mythics are losers in order to balance the average.

Because mythics have less supply around than rares, tournament results, and more particularly Pro Tour results, may influence mythic prices trends. Last year Pro Tour Theros was the first time a Standard Pro Tour was held right after the release of a fall set and more specifically right after the rotation of the Standard format.

This change in the Pro Tour schedule weighted on Theros mythics prices. Price of mythics from Innistrad and Return to Ravnica were not influenced by a Pro Tour. Even for the one that gained value (Sphinx's Revelation or Geist of Saint Traft) prices had about a month to settle down from their release heights.

Theros was released on MTGO only one week before the Pro Tour. Multiple forces battled then to control Theros mythic prices. Low supply pushed prices up, low demand pushed prices down for some mythics, hype from Pro Tour results skyrocketed prices even higher, and finally the flow of supply strongly pushed prices down again.

In the end Master of Waves saw a big spike from 7-8 Tix to 24 Tix in about 48 hours and crashed to 8 Tix soon after. Even as dominant as this merfolk was at PT Theros its price didn't survive the PT spike and actually slowly declined until last June. Here again, I lost some Tix in the mix.

Because of the incoming Pro Tour this weekend, prices of mythics from Khans of Tarkir are going to be all over the place and hyped for several days. This is the perfect storm to lose Tix when supply and demand are changing quickly and when the frenzy of a Pro Tour is added to the mixture. After the Pro Tour, prices are going to stabilize, and similarly to Theros mythics, Khans of Tarkir mythics should be at their lowest, in average, in December.

For all the reasons mentioned here and because speculating on a fall set in the first two to four months after release holds a lot of uncertainty to me I will simply avoid any speculations/investments with Khans of Tarkir.

There is and will be plenty of other opportunities within the next weeks and months. Among them, M15 boosters, Return to Ravnica block rares and some mythics and Modern.

Thoughts on the Fetchlands

Besides all the newcomers, the reprint of the original Onslaught fetchlands is the big attraction from Khans of Tarkir. They should help this set keep some value over time as they will be in demand from all formats and all players. Could they keep a high price tag and maybe even see a price increase sooner than other rares? I don't think so.

Similarly to Return to Ravnica shocklands, Khans of Tarkir fetchlands will drop in value inevitably in the short term. Depending on their popularity at any given time they should rapidly reach a floor withing the 3-5 Tix range. And don't really expect them to break 6 Tix any time soon.

Polluted Delta and Flooded Strand were the most expensive and popular, but they might not be now. Overgrown Tomb and Temple Garden got more expensive than Hallowed Fountain and Steam Vents in Return to Ravnica, and Watery Grave never had the success Sacred Foundry had in Gatecrash. Blue/x lands are not anymore a guaranty of anything these days.

As any other rares, I may consider them only in December and will be looking to acquire them around 3 Tix.

Dealing With the Pro Tour Results

Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir is finally around the corner and with it several investments made this summer with M15 and Theros block cards should come to maturation.

It all naturally depends on the PT results itself but there are a couple of things I'm going to be watching in the wake of this PT in terms of investments. There's more than the deck techs coverage and the winner's deck list.

I won't discuss potential spikes here. There's always a play to do with unexpected cards that receive a lot of attention. Quick flips are always an option and I leave that up to you to decide if it's worth it or not.

Selling Plans

I have already explained a little about my selling strategy on the forum or on some of my articles. What I plan to do this weekend and the following weeks is also based on my experience last year. You can find additional information or explanations on my Nine Months of Portfolio Management series with the articles dealing with M14 rares and mythics and RTR block rare and mythics.

If you don't have to sell everything right after the final of Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir the results should however influence your decisions on selling or holding each of your positions.

I'll be looking to sell two type of cards. Big winners and big losers.

This is pretty obvious, I'm looking to sell cards that benefit from the PT results, although I'm going to make sure I give these cards some extra time to grow if they don't really spike right after the PT. Several cards including Goblin Rabblemaster, Courser of Kruphix or Elspeth, Sun's Champion are anticipated to perform well at this PT and during the coming Standard season, their price peak might be in two months only.

I would be more prompt to sell if the price increase looks more like a spike/hype than an organic growth.

Garruk, Caller of Beasts saw a big increase in about two weeks last year, whereas Jace, Architect of Thought saw a steady price increase until December.

About the losers, I meant by that cards that would make a big flop or would be totally unseen while expected at Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir. Last year, Archangel of Thune, Kalonian Hydra and mostly Chandra, Pyromaster didn't perform as expected. I sold Chandra and the archangel soon after the PT last year but got stuck with the hydra that kept losing value.

This year I'll make sure I don't keep losers in my portfolio. This year I could see Garruk, Apex Predator not performing well after being in the 7-8 Tix range for two months. I won't hesitate to sell it, even with losses, if this black/green Garruk doesn't do anything.

Finally, concerning cards that haven't moved much from this past summer and that are not going to be heavily played at the PT, I would be inclined to keep them as they are still close to their bottom and still have their chances if the metagame gets more favorable for them. I think about the Theros temples for instance, not all of them might get played this weekend. Later in the season they might. Several M15 rares could be in that case too.

Buying Plans

Aside from spikes, there might be some nice opportunities to capture. Remember Desecration Demon and Pack Rat? The demon was already inflated when Pro Tour Theros came but it was a nice surprise for the rats. Pack Rat was a bulk card before the PT, then went up to about 1 Tix a week after the PT and it finally took more than a month for this card to become a Standard staple and be worth over 2 Tix.

These buying opportunities may be very narrow and you have to look for good decks that didn't necessarily have a strong finish. If you are able to spot these cards they may represent a very profitable investment. A lot of Theros block cards are potential gems, only a few of them might make it. It's up to the pros and their decks. Trying to get some info from the pros and deck building teams may help you screen for potential candidates; stay tuned!

 

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux