A couple weeks ago, I was asked to write up a piece analyzing the strength of Jeskai cards in Khans of Tarkir. Ignorantly I proceeded with my piece, declaiming how poorly synergized the shard was. Mantis Rider to me was an underwhelming 3/3 flier and Jeskai Ascendancy was a do-nothing, clunky enchantment not worth playing.

Technically I could have been more wrong, but not by much.

Two Jeskai tempo decks each running a full set of Mantis Rider appeared in the New Jersey SCG Open Top 8. One of the two lists even won the event!

To add insult to injury, Jeskai Ascendancy has been one of the most speculated upon spells from Khans for its potential in Modern. While the card wasn’t included in the list above, it still would have been a tremendous buy two weeks ago.

Clearly, the Jeskai shard has more potential than I initially thought…

Where I Went Wrong – Part 1

Let’s start with Jeskai Ascendancy. When I wrote my review a couple weeks ago, I did suggest Modern was the only format where I saw this card as being playable. But I was too myopic in my view of this card’s playability, wanting to force it into a B/W Tokens build. What I hadn’t considered was the possibility of this card actually defining a whole archetype. But clearly that’s what is happening.

I completely overlooked a Jeskai deck running a bunch of cantrips, mana dorks and Jeskai Ascendancy to completely “go off” combo style. Talk about a gutsy deck!

It’s definitely important to acknowledge that this list, while very fun and novel, is a bit of a glass cannon. Could you see this list doing well through a load of disruption? Jund decks, for example, seem to have a lot of weapons that would be highly disruptive. Discard spells and creature removal must be potent for the above list, though I could see something like Eidolon of Rhetoric.

Glass cannon aside, the deck is obviously capable of winning. Time will tell whether or not the card is truly breakable, but suddenly I am a believer rather than a naysayer.

Where I Went Wrong: Part 2

It turns out I was wrong and everyone else was right on Mantis Rider. I couldn’t see a deck wanting to cast this spell on turn three or turn four, simply because I couldn’t envision a strong Jeskai list. Kevin Jones clearly proved just how wrong I was.

Two things slipped by my attention when I initially evaluated this card. First, I didn’t realize just how dominant Goblin Rabblemaster was! I thought maybe it was a one-hit wonder, fitting a singular decklist well but not really belonging in others.

This goblin is far more robust and potent than I had originally realized. After seeing how many copies of the card made Top 8’s in the past couple of SCG Opens, I now have to acknowledge my poor judgment. A deck does not have to be called “Rabble Red” in order to benefit from Goblin Rabblemaster. It seems almost any deck with red wants to play this card in Standard. That would certainly explain the $20 price tag!

My second miss was the fact that a Jeskai deck could actually be quite aggressive in Standard. I always acknowledge the strength of Red-based aggressive strategies in a new standard format. My vision this time around was a mono-red build playing burn spells available alongside Eidolon of the Great Revel and the like.

Wrong. Jeskai has access to a bevy of removal and burn spells to pave the way for its aggressively costed beaters Goblin Rabblemaster, Mantis Rider and Seeker of the Way.

The result: a robust Jeskai list that won the New Jersey SCG Open – not to mention the new price tag on Mantis Rider.

Three Strikes and I’m Out

I’m sure my loyal readers can find plenty more examples where I’ve been wrong of late. But I’m going to give myself the benefit of the doubt and stop my count at strike two, if only to make for a good final section title.

I have learned an essential, valuable lesson from this exercise. When I was asked to write an article assessing the playability of a Khans of Tarkir shard, I felt I had the knowledge to do so. I became overconfident and cocky, and I wrote the piece completely in a vacuum without researching what others thought. Instead I merely documented my initial reactions, which were clearly incorrect.

This experience has emphasized how critical our community is to a successfully lucrative hobby in MTG Finance. Some players are probably strong enough at deckbuilding to have anticipated the lists above, as Ryan Overturf mentioned in the comments of my initial revievw. For me, I recognize this is not one of my strengths. I’ve never been one to identify powerful synergies coming from a new set. My strategy has always been to follow the community’s sentiments closely to determine what others are deeming playable.

That’s how I stumbled upon Angel of Serenity a couple years ago. I noticed people on Twitter talking about the card – and not just any people. Professional players and well-respected MTG Finance personalities were both touting the power of the card, leading me to one of my best calls in MTG Finance.

The strategy clearly worked well, so why did I deviate? Why did I neglect the community’s opinion this time by writing up a review based on my own instincts?

Laziness is not a valid excuse, but it’s the only honest one. I was a bit too overconfident, blind to my own weaknesses. I should have recognized that I am not an expert brewer (nor am I even a consistent player these days). My skills are best applied to analysis of macro trends in Magic, such as the utility of mana-fixing lands in a new Standard environment and the cyclical evolution of Dual Land values. These are realms where I am more comfortable to follow my instincts, and it is where I should focus my expertise.

For any other topics – especially those related to a new Standard format or Modern brew – I now recognize how necessary it is to follow what others in the community are pushing rather than developing my own theses. This is a lesson everyone else can learn from without the (potential) embarrassment of my confession.

I encourage you all to take a step back and assess your strengths and weaknesses in MTG Finance. In areas you are capable, please be a voice on Twitter and the QS Forums for others to learn from. In areas where you are less confident, don’t try to do it all yourself. Learn from others in the community and follow trends to identify the best profitable opportunities.

Perhaps if I had done this more recently, I’d be sitting on more than zero copies of Mantis Rider and four copies of Jeskai Ascendancy, despite even the Insider email alert that went out. My temples will make me solid money, but I missed out on a couple of the largest opportunities we’ve had in a while because of my ignorance.

The Pro Tour is nearly upon us, and I’ll be following results very closely to identify what cards are trending. Trust me when I say, I will not make this mistake twice. Hopefully after reading this article, you can avoid making my mistake even once.

…

Sigbits

• I thought preordering Mantis Rider for a couple bucks was a poor decision. Now the card is sold out at SCG at $7.99. Talk about serious price appreciation!
• The following Temples are sold out at SCG with these respective prices: Temple of Malice: $7.99, Temple of Plenty: $9.99, Temple of Epiphany: $7.99, Temple of Malady: $11.99, Temple of Mystery: $3.99, Temple of Silence: $3.99. Some others are close to sold out. If you need any of these for Standard play, I’d suggest getting them immediately. If you are looking to make a few bucks, try and see if you can trade for these at their “sold out prices”, as I only see them going higher in the coming months.
• Could Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker join the elite $50+ Planeswalker club, alongside Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Liliana of the Veil? It is very possible – the card is showing up in winning Standard decklists and it’s a casual gem. Seriously, who doesn’t love the combination of Planeswalkers and Dragons? He’s currently sold out at SCG with a retail price of $39.99. I see $49.99 coming and only time will tell if enough copies are opened to keep the price from going higher. My guess: he’s not a 4-of and he’s not oppressively strong in multiple formats, so I don’t think he goes higher than $50.