Last week Star City Games revealed two market-moving announcements--one was overly publicized from the proverbial rooftops while the other subtle and unadvertised. One led to a dramatic response from the MTG community while the other had people equally flabbergasted.

Despite their differences in tone, the combination of the two could mean market moving trends in the coming months. I say “could” because I have my doubts.

The first piece of news to hit the wires last week was Star City Games’ recent bump in NM buy prices on Unlimited Power:

• Ancestral Recall: $1250.00
• Black Lotus: $4500.00 (it was $5000 throughout the week)
• Mox Emerald: $800.00
• Mox Jet: $900.00
• Mox Pearl: $800.00
• Mox Ruby: $800.00
• Mox Sapphire: $1200.00
• Time Walk: $900.00
• Timetwister: $500.00

The second piece of news was the announcement for the Star City Games Open circuit structure changes heading into 2015. This announcement essentially states that every Open event will operate like a Grand Prix. There will be a major event that lasts both days with $20k in prizes and many vendors will be on-site to interact with. The vast majority of these events are Standard, but there are a few Legacy and Modern events sprinkled throughout. The formats not headlining the weekend will still be played as 5k events on Sunday, though don’t expect to see any live coverage for them.

As all of this buzz hit social media, many pros and financiers shared their opinions en masse. For the most part, I remained quiet, left to my internal thoughts as I sorted through potential implications.

While I’m not 100% confident in what I’ve come up with, I do feel sufficiently prepared to at least share an initial reaction. Without further adieu, I’ll go through every format and share my most recent thoughts on each in light of this information.

Standard

All of a sudden we have a Standard “Grand Prix” nearly every weekend, and all of them are in the US. The opportunities to become a professional Magic player are going to multiply drastically, and this will definitely drive greater interest in the format. But does this increased interest mean money-making opportunity?

Perhaps not in an obvious way. Almost every card in Standard, across all sets and colors, have seen significant declines in price over the past few months. A card like Sylvan Caryatid, which is a major enabler for multi-colored decks, has done nothing but decline despite the magnitude of play it has seen.

Granted, the card is off its pre-rotation spike, but not by nearly as much.

Even multi-format all-star Thoughtseize has been dropping pretty hard over the past couple weeks. That precious opportunity to buy list copies to Star City Games at $17.50 is now gone, as they have dropped their buy price all the way down to $12.50, still rivaling most sites you can find through Trader Tools.

Thoughtseize

Iconic Masters

$9

See Trader Tools

11%

Spread

$10

See Trader Tools

Click to load historical prices.

I’m not going to show 20 more price curves revealing the same trend because it is unnecessary and belabors the point. Standard is a hot format with a TON of diversity, but card values aren’t mirroring this truth. Perhaps we’ve finally reached a point where the market is fully efficient.

In other words, we now have so many speculators and investors buying strong cards in anticipation for Standard rotation. Maybe they rapidly bought up the hot cards immediately after rotation, taking away any remaining opportunity throughout the remainder of the Standard season.

This could bode poorly for those stuck in Standard positions going forward. The drastic increase in visibility of Standard will hopefully jump start the Standard economy, but I have my doubts.

Everyone who grinds the SCG circuit already has their Standard decks. An increase in premier events will mean those decks can be played more frequently for larger sums of money, but I am not confident that this will translate to any increase in demand. Throw in the efficiency of this Standard market along with the fact that Hasbro is motivated to print as much product as they can sell with any new set and you have a pretty glum outlook on new cards.

At this point, I’m inclined to avoid any new card unless there’s a quick flip opportunity. The only exception may be foil eternal cards like Thoughtseize or Treasure Cruise. But even the foil market is getting “solved” more rapidly than ever before. Proceed with extreme caution.

Modern

The Modern format is in a state of flux. Cards like Treasure Cruise and Young Pyromancer have completely shaken up the metagame. With this shake-up, we’re likely to see some price fluctuations. These fluctuations could lead to profits for savvy investors.

I don’t think opportunities change much at all in light of the recent SCG news. There are a couple 20k Modern Opens sprinkled throughout the Open schedule, but not a meaningful amount. Chances are the Modern metagame shift due to newly printed cards will have a much more profound impact on card prices than would a couple 20k events. This is especially the case for cards finally making a splash in the format more so than cards that have been around for a while.

For example, compare the price charts for Birthing Pod and Chalice of the Void. There were twelve Pods in GP Madrid’s Top 8, all in main decks. There were six Chalices: three in a main deck and three in a sideboard. Yet the resulting price movement on Chalice has been much more positive simply because it is being “re-discovered”.

My final comment on Modern is this: I’m incredibly afraid of buying deeply into any given Modern card out of fear of reprinting.

Wizards has shown us time and again they are willing to reprint almost anything in one product or another. I don’t care about Birthing Pod’s Phyrexian flavor or the fact that it contains Phyrexian mana. It could show up in a Modern Event deck, Modern Masters set, Commander deck, or an array of other such products.

Therefore my latest strategy on Modern has been to focus on foils, which are much sparser. Foil Chalices are especially attractive under $20, for example. And while I don’t expect Chalice to be reprinted again in a new Modern Masters set, you can never be certain.

Legacy

Most comments I’ve read about Legacy’s trajectory after the latest SCG announcements have been negative. People are concerned this is the beginning of the end for the much-beloved eternal format. Without all that online coverage, how will new players be attracted to the format? What’s going to inspire players to trade out of their Standard and Modern cards to pick up Dual Lands at a ratio of 20:1?

First of all, everyone needs to take a step back and relax. There are still going to be Legacy 5k events every single weekend. The vast majority of Standard players from Day 1 will not make Day 2, leaving them to decide between Modern and Legacy. Those who have played Legacy in the past will continue to play Legacy. I don’t think you’re going to see much of a drop-off in Legacy tournament attendance.

We may see fewer players jump into the format after watching live coverage. Then again, now there are a handful of 20k Legacy events to get excited about! It’s almost like adding three new Legacy Grand Prix to the US tournament circuit--a significant increase compared to what we have today.

Have you ever heard of “too much of a good thing”? I think the latest SCG Open structure is likely to burn people out on Standard coverage. Spectators will get more excited than ever before on the weekends when Modern or Legacy are the premier events. I, for one, will be. Instead of knowing I can tune in to watch some Legacy any Sunday afternoon, I know I have to wait for the weekends of the premier events. This will get me thinking about Legacy coverage more than before!

Could less coverage mean more exciting coverage when it comes to Legacy? Could the increase in major Legacy events within the US (while maintaining the same number of overall Legacy events) actually increase player excitement? It’s too early to say either way.

In the meantime, my strategy is simple and echoes the same sentiment Corbin shared in a recent piece: avoid overly trendy Legacy cards and focus on the tried and true staples. Dual Lands are cheaper now than they’ve been in months – take advantage and acquire the copies you’ve been needing. Itching to pick up a Force of Will for your Commander deck? Perhaps now is the time to pull the trigger.

As for any potential sell-off based on panic--I say be patient, wait for opportunities and acquire as needed. I’m not going to move my whole portfolio into Legacy, but I am strategically adding to my Dual Land collection while it remains a buyer’s market.

Should prices drop further on this news, it’ll only mean I can acquire more!

Vintage

Last but not least we have the elephant in the room: Vintage. The SCG circuit changes have nothing to do with Vintage, of course. It’s their recent move on Power prices that could drastically influence this format.

A few months ago I was pushing Power feverishly. Almost every week I was pointing out how much trouble Star City had with keeping these in stock. I predicted buy price increases. They finally happened.

What’s next? I honestly have no clue, but I suspect the market will not support these higher prices. Already I’ve noticed a sudden influx of Power on the market as people attempt to cash out at these newly inflated prices.

If I were you and I had some excess copies, I’d move them now. Then again, if you have a super-long term view (more than a couple years), then maybe you still hold as you always have. After all, it’s not like these will become any less rare in the future, right?

As for Vintage as a format, I don’t believe these Power price changes are related at all. No, there’s not a sudden jump in Vintage demand that I’m aware of. SCG didn’t announce a Vintage 20k event (although it would be amazing to watch!). I believe we are just seeing natural market movements as copies become less and less available over time. Players want Power for their cubes and the like, and while movement is very slow, it has been noticeable. Collectors are also eager to acquire their set of Power simply to have and admire.

I will make one last observation on Vintage – it appears the recent price jumps in non-Power staples has finally ended. As evidence, check out the price chart of Mana Drain, which has definitely shown a flattening trend.

If you’ve been following my advice over the past few months by acquiring Vintage staples like Mana Drain, I’d think about cashing out soon and moving into the next opportunity. We got a nice bump on these, but it may take another year to see more noticeable price appreciation. Let’s move our resources elsewhere.

Wrapping It Up

After writing this column, I’m noticing something rather discouraging: I’m fairly bearish on almost every format. I don’t like new cards in Standard because I fear they are being overprinted and overbought. Modern cards will be solid buys, but only after we see what’s reprinted in the coming months. Legacy cards aren’t too exciting right now as people are uncertain how the recent SCG circuit will impact demand. And Vintage is… well… downright expensive.

So where is my money going? As I mentioned, right now I’m targeting Dual Lands and strategic foils like Chalice of the Void. The key is to focus on older cards so that we can be sure there aren’t excess quantities of them. By looking at foils, I’m also identifying those opportunities which are even harder to find and are more price-immune to reprints.

That’s about all I can recommend with confidence right now. Tread carefully, remain focused, and you’ll avoid the dangerous pitfalls of MTG Speculation.

…

Sigbits

• Star City Games is almost completely sold out of Chalice of the Void. These are definitely going to see a price bump soon, so acquire your personal copies now before that happens. Right now SCG’s prices are below TCG Low – this is a trend that never lasts.
• Here’s another interesting pickup idea: foil Archangel of Thune. She’s made a few appearances in GP Madrid’s Top 8. While never a 4-of, the foils see demand from both casual players and Modern players alike. Reprints won’t damage the price of original foil printings nearly as badly, either. SCG currently only has two copies in stock at $34.99.
• Foil Shock Lands are also not a bad place to park some money, but it’s the original foil versions that have shown the most price resilience. Foil Dissension Hallowed Fountain, for example, are $119.99 on SCG. They currently have only SP and MP copies in stock, and not many for that matter. I suspect there will come a time when these go even higher no matter what reprints we see.