A Year-long MTGO Challenge
More than six months ago I completed a series of articles in the Insider section called Nine Months of Portfolio Management, the first part of which is being unlocked today:
- Unlocked Insider: [MTGO] Nine Months of Portfolio Management – Introduction
- Part 2 – Data Analysis
- Part 3 – M14 Mythics, a 100% Winning Blind Bet?
- Part 4 – M14 and Core Set Rares
- Part 5 – Investing in Modern
- Part 6 – Standard Rotation Opportunities
- Part 7 – Opportunity Cost & Opportunity Benefit
- Part 8 – Mismanaging Return to Ravnica Block Positions
- Part 9 – Quick Flips & Very Short Term Specs
- Part 10 – Conclusion
In my (biased?) opinion, it was a very interesting and educational experience about the complete management of a portfolio on MTGO throughout nine months.
It’s time now to move on to another project I briefly mentioned a while ago but haven’t taken the time to put together. I called this project “100 Tix 1 Year”.
The concept is pretty simple. I opened a fresh new MTGO account and dropped 100 Tix in it–nothing more, nothing less. I’m going to invest these 100 Tix the best I can for the next 365 days.
The goal of this challenge is to see how far I can go with 100 Tix in the span of 1 year. 100 Tix is a rather limited bankroll to speculate on MTGO, but I intend to show that even with a very small bankroll, decent returns can be achieved over the course of a year.
This account has no history of trades with anyone and has no credits at any bots. It starts from scratch.
What Approach To Take With a 100 Tix Bankroll?
I often say that there are only to three types of investments on MTGO–Cycles, Speculations and Quick Flips. If you had a chance to read some of my articles, I also say that, depending on your bankroll size, you should adjust the way you use the three types of investments.
With a very small bankroll of 100 Tix, here is how I plan to use them:
- 30% to 50% of my bankroll will be dedicated to Quick Flips and very short term opportunities. I intend to stay as liquid as possible and to avoid long term commitments.
- The other 70% to 50% of my bankroll will be mostly used for cyclical and short term investments. These types of investments are usually extremely reliable with very decent returns.
- Close to nothing for pure speculative positions. In order to grow my portfolio rapidly, I absolutely don’t want to be stuck with specs that may last up to a year before showing any progress.
- With the exception of Quick Flips, I won’t be buying cards worth more than 5 Tix–at least in the beginning while my bankroll is still small. This is to ensure enough diversity and avoid any risk with a specific position that would be too big for this portfolio.
How Should This Unfold?
The first one or two months should be relatively slow. I’ll have to get the account and investments going and I’ll have couple of Tix stuck as credits with several bots. The value of my account might as well be negative after the first month.
The Modern Pro Tour in February could make the account grow rapidly with some juicy quick flips. The growth should then be exponential and I expect to have grown my account by 50% to 100% after the first six months.
A new core set and the rotation of Standard could represent a nice source of Tix, with many good spec maturing by the end of 2015.
Where do I see this account in one year from now? Anywhere between doubling and tripling–maybe even more.
Follow Me And Win Too!
As I like to share my experiments, I’ll make the process of this challenge public and visible to anyone. I’ll be posting on Twitter every single transaction I’ll be making, buying or selling. You can follow this challenge @100T1Y , @QuietSpec and #100T1Ychallenge.
Follow, share, comment, and go with the calls if you believe in them!
Every month I’ll be evaluating my account and write a brief report.
A Contest For You
Finally, I have two little contests for you.
The goal of these contests is to guess the total value in Tix of my account after six months and at the end of the challenge, after one year. To participate:
- Follow @100T1Y on Twitter.
- Leave a comment after this post with your two guesses and your Twitter handle, so I can contact you later on.
- You have until the end of January (January 31st 2015, 11:59 pm EST) to participate via a comment on this post only.
- The value of my account will be estimated after 6 months (June 30th 2015) with the number of Tix + the value of the cards I own at the time (I’ll use for reference 90% of Mtgotraders.com selling prices). I’ll have all my cards sold by December 31st and will have only Tix on the account, this will be its final value.
The closest guess after six and twelve months wins.
What are the prizes?
Six months winner. If you are not a QS Insider, I’ll pay for a three-month’s subscription to QuietSpeculation, valued at $28.75. If you are already a QS Insider, I’ll give a draft set of the newest Standard set on MTGO.
One year winner. Your total prize will be determined by the performance of the “100 Tix 1 Year” challenge and will be equal to half of the profit generated by the challenge.
If you are not a QS Insider, the dollar equivalent of half of the benefit in Tix (1 Tix=$0.95) will be used to pay for your QS Insider membership for that many months. If you are a QS Insider, I’ll transfer you half of the benefit to your MTGO account.
Good luck to all of us!