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Insider: MTG Stock Watch 12/28/14

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Welcome back, fellow speculators! I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas holiday and (by the time you read this) a happy New Year!

Now that we're done with the pleasantries let's get right back down to business.

Penny Stocks

#1 Cyclonic Rift (Commander 2014) (+46.8%) - This one isn't really a huge surprise. While the normal rule of thumb is that original printings hold more value, the fact that this is such a recent printing means there wasn't really any justification for why the Commander version (which is likely more rare) was half the price of the original RTR version. This is likely a simple market adjustment as they are both now sitting on par with each other.

cyclonic rift 1

cyclonic rift 2

#2 Doomwake Giant (+25.4%) - This card has been tearing up MODO and sits at a whopping 8.47 tickets, whereas its paper counterpart was still under $2. I expect we'll see a continued rise of the paper version (though I don't think $8.5 is likely) as Journey into Nyx wasn't drafted a ton so the rares are far more rare than the first set rares in Theros.

Doomwake Giant

#3 Thran Dynamo (Commander 2014) (+25.5%) - This one isn't too surprising. The other three versions (Urza's Destiny, Archenemy, and FTV:20) are all above $5 on average and when it comes to casual cards that can go in almost any commander deck, players are happy to play with whatever copy they can find cheapest.

The fact that this one was sitting at under $3 before the jump is quite surprising, especially since it was only reprinted in the blue commander deck which from what I've seen on store shelves was the 4th most popular (only in front of black).

thran dynamo

#4 Grave Titan (Commander 2014) (+18.8%) - This one is similar to Cyclonic Rift. The Commander version was simply far below the other versions (both of which are sitting above $5). Grave Titan did make it on camera in the SCG Legacy Open in Atlanta in the maindeck of Jesse Inman's Reanimator deck as a solid threat the deck can actually cast. It also helps that the black Commander deck is clearly the least desirable (judging by multiple store shelves) so fewer are entering circulation than one might expect.

Grave Titan

#5 Ghoulcaller Gisa (Commander 2014) (+16.5%) - This one is a bit more surprising when you first look at it. She's a cool, flavorful commander but not so broken that she really stands out. This is her first and only printing so far so if you want a copy you either have to buy the black Commander deck (which as I've mentioned several times isn't that popular) or buy/trade for her. It seems that more people are taking the second route so demand for the single has gone up a bit this past week.

ghoulcaller gisa

Blue Chip Stocks

#1 Force of Will (+6.97%) - Wow, Force has shot up recently. It's had already jumped to $90 previously and now it's approaching $100 (currently sitting at $96.74 on the mid). With Treasure Cruise in the current Legacy format being so dominant it's not surprising to see that the glue that holds the format together and shares a color is in high demand. The fact that Cruise can mitigate the true cost of casting FoW (an additional card out of your hand) makes it more playable than ever and this demand reflects that.

force of will

#2 Taiga (-3.02%) - Poor, poor Taiga, it continues to fall. Zoo just can't find a home in Legacy at the moment and the other deck that used to run a copy or two (Goblins) seems to have also fallen by the wayside courtesy of Deathrite Shaman and then True-Name Nemesis. The only decks that still run Taiga are Jund, Charbelcher, and Lands...none of which have put up any major showings recently.

taiga

#3 Show and Tell (-2.89%) - This one isn't too surprising either. Show and Tell decks have just not been doing well in the current metagame. It's difficult to cast a three- or four-mana spell in a format riddled with Spell Pierces, Force of Wills, Dazes, and even the occasional Izzet Charm. I have seen some Show and Tell players adopting Boseiju as a way to help jam the Show and Tell, but the fact that Boseiju doesn't make Sneak Attack uncounterable means it's really only there for the Show and Tell.

show and tell

#4 Underground Sea (-2.44%) - With the massive popularity of U/R Delver decks and the fact that Treasure Cruise makes targeted discard spells pretty bad the need for playing black in Legacy is quickly diminishing. Unless we see Cruise banned, I think the Stoneblade decks are going to give up black in favor of red permanently as targeted discard is worse than countering an opposing counterspell or Treasure Cruise for 1 red. Lightning Bolt is also still one of the most efficient removal/burn spells we have.

underground sea

#5 Bayou (+1.60%) - I'm honestly a bit perplexed on this one. We've seen black overall greatly diminished in power level with the advent of the U/R Delver decks and UWR Stoneblade decks currently occupying a lot of the metagame. Bayou's original spike occurred when Deathrite was printed and the Elves decks decided that trying to find answers to their problems in mono-green wasn't worth the hassle anymore. But even the once-mighty Elves decks have been having a hard time defeating decks that maindeck Forked Bolt.

I also must admit that all the minor fluctuations (1-2% changes) could very well be attributed to the variance that occurs with prices when only a few sell.

Bayou

Value Stocks

I thought that the Khans fetchlands would be near their low points, up until WoTC announced they would be including them as options in the land slot in Fate Reforged packs. While similar to the shocks in Dragon's Maze, it's important to note that with DGM you would on average get 2-3 per box, but you had all 10 shocks as options. With Fate Reforged you'll likely see the same odds, but with only 5 fetches as options we'll see twice as many added to the supply as DGM. It may be even more, as Fate Reforged is the second set and will be drafted longer than DGM ever was (it also already seems to have more awesome cards than DGM and a good portion isn't even spoiled yet.)

That being said, I think your value stock picks are really limited. I've had some do well this year (bought Mana Confluences at $8 and saw them jump to $17 before backsliding to their current $12 price) and also had some unfortunate picks stagnate (almost all of my temples have flat-lined and shown little to no growth).

Growth Stocks

This week we see some decent size drops in both Avacyn Restored and in Zendikar product. With the announcement that MM2 will cover all sets up to Innistrad block there could be some concern for the Zendikar fetches being reprinted which would drive the demand for Zendikar product downward.

We also see minor dips in almost everything which could also be tied to the MM2 announcement. With only two positive trends (and both being so minor that it could easily be attributed to variance as a whole), I am feeling a bit less confident in sealed product as an investment. It's also interesting to note that zero new Worldwake boxes entered the eBay marketplace in the past two weeks. This could imply that supply is really drying up and that the price will trend upward for what little sealed product remains.

Week of 12/27/14

Box Most Recent Completed Auction Second Most Recent Third Most Recent Fourth Most Recent New Average Average comparison
Innistrad $190.80 $208.00 $214.99 $199.00 $203.20 -0.93%
Dark Ascension $108.00 $108.00 $93.00 $117.00 $106.50 1.07%
Avacyn Restored $142.00 $121.50 $125.00 $134.95 $130.86 -3.13%
Scars of Mirrodin $174.95 $199.00 $168.00 $167.00 $177.24 0.92%
Mirrodin Besieged $134.18 $148.95 $188.00 $159.99 $157.78 -1.47%
New Phyrexia $359.89 $342.99 $340.55 $344.99 $347.11 -0.46%
Zendikar $499.95 $539.99 $455.00 $485.00 $494.99 -3.79%
Worldwake $698.99 $698.99 $715.00 $700.00 $703.25 0.00%
Rise of the Eldrazi $509.99 $518.02 $530.09 $584.99 $535.77 -1.12%

I've been keeping the data from each of these articles on a separate spreadsheet. Below I've plotted the prices over time (as well as dates of all the sealed product listed here).

sealed product graph

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