Are you a Quiet Speculation member?
If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.
Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements. There will be some overlap between the two sections.
As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.
Redemption
Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of January 20th, 2015. The MTGO prices reflect the set sell price scraped from the Supernova Bots website, while the TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid price respectively.
Return to Ravnica Block & M14
The Banned & Restricted announcement on Monday has shifted prices across these sets. With Birthing Pod banned, Voice of Resurgence (and DGM along with it) has fallen in price significantly as a result. This card will find a floor eventually, and should prove to be a modest role player in the new Modern metagame. Keep your eyes on this card, but it’s got a long way to fall yet with only price memory providing any support at the moment.
The outlook for both RTR and GTC remains unchanged, with future price gains anticipated as interest in Modern rises in advance of Modern Masters 2015. Two calls from last week that are reiterated here are Sphinx's Revelation and Domri Rade. Both have seen play in Modern in the past, and both have been absent from the format since the release of KTK. With redemption providing a (rising) price floor, both of these cards are very low risk specs, with strong upside potential in the new Modern metagame.
The short-term outlook for M14 is for continued price weakness as Archangel of Thune drops in value due to the banning of Birthing Pod. As the angel falls in price, value should accumulate elsewhere in the set. On top of that, both Mutavault and Scavenging Ooze could see more play in Modern going forward. This set will be closely monitored for opportunities as it is definitely back on the radar with the shake-up of the Modern format.
Theros Block & M15
As for Standard legal sets, M15, JOU and BNG are all priced at a premium compared to TCG Low. This means there will be no price support from redemption for these sets, despite falling in price on MTGO in the last month. There are no targets in BNG or M15 to recommend at this time.
However, the B&R announcement has an impact on the prospects of JOU. Prior to the printing of the delve cards from KTK, Keranos, God of Storms was establishing itself as a Legacy- and Modern-playable card. It was showing up in Miracles and Twin decks in those formats respectively. Having falling by more than 50% since October, this card is one to keep an eye on as it should reassert itself.
Also, Eidolon of the Great Revel is a staple of Burn decks in both Legacy and Modern. Although the B&R announcement doesn’t particularly favor the re-emergence of this strategy, all decks will still have to reckon with Burn. The addition of Monastery Swiftspear to Goblin Guide and Eidolon of the Great Revel means that Burn has a very effective core of creatures that cannot be ignored.
While in Standard, Eidolon of the Great Revel has seen a price floor of around 6 tix. Interest in Modern will be increasing, so this should be considered a strong buy in the 6-7 tix range. As Standard develops with the addition of FRF (and then DTK in the Spring), devotion strategies might reemerge, which could be another boost for this RR two-drop.
THS has some value as a larger set, but is also the most plentiful in terms of supply on MTGO. Generally, the time to speculate on the THS block sets is past, though something like Xenagos, the Reveler could see a metagame shift price increase after Fate Reforged is released. Keep an eye on any Standard results from the upcoming weekend to see an early indication of the impact from the new set.
Khans of Tarkir
KTK is one of the most redeemable sets in memory, albeit a little less so with the recent banning announcement. Nevertheless, the time to be buying mythic rares from this set will be during online release events for Fate Reforged. Make sure you have some tix set aside to stock up on this set. In particular, a card like Siege Rhino should continue to be Standard playable for the next year, and has shown itself to be Modern playable as well. Going deep on this card as a long-term hold is very defensible as a strategy.
Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities
Modern
The changes to the Banned & Restricted list remove one archetype completely, while U/R delver will go back to being a non-Tier 1 deck. Obviously this kills the price on a couple of cards directly related to these decks, however it creates a tremendous speculative opportunity for pretty much everything else in Modern, starting with Junk/Jund decks, Affinity and Splinter Twin variants.
In less than six hours post-announcement on Monday, many Modern staples jumped by 50% or more. Several of these cards were featured in last week’s report. If these cards were great picks before the announcement, prices have moved up too much on some of them to still represent good buying opportunities.
Some not-so-obvious opportunities are still around though. Here are the positions we think are good targets. Since prices are likely to move by the publication of this report we will also include a price limit. If the card breaches the limit, look for other opportunities. The best speculative idea can turn into a very mediocre one if the price is too high.
Living End <3 tix
Flames of the Blood Hand <1 tix
Vendilion Clique <40 tix
Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker <7 tix
Slippery Bogle <0.7 tix
Daybreak Coronet <15 tix
Fulminator Mage <25 tix
Eidolon of the Great Revel <9 tix
Goblin Guide <6 tix
Sphinx's Revelation <12 tix
Steel Overseer <1.8 tix
Domri Rade <7 tix
Magus of the Moon <4 tix
Sundering Titan <10 tix
Knight of the Reliquary <1.5 tix
Not having Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time in Modern is an environment easy to imagine, as it would largely be how Modern was prior to the release of KTK. Without Birthing Pod, it’s simply unknown what Modern will look like now. All prior established archetypes may now have a shot at the spotlight in the upcoming Pro Tour. The best way to be prepared for this is to hold a basket of staples across many archetypes, and wait to see what emerges as the format develops.
Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities
Every week, we’ll cover any sell recommendations pertaining to past buy recommendations, as well as other strong sells. This week, the Banned & Restricted announcement has triggered a large shift in value on many cards, and prices have begun to reflect this. This process of adjustment can move quickly, but sometimes it can extend for a long time with no sign of a bottom.
If you’ve managed to acquire any Modern staples that have jumped in price this week, it’s not yet time to sell those. The constructed portion of the upcoming Pro Tour will be Modern, which should provide a great short-term selling opportunity. But there are some cards that have diminished prospects this week. Following the B&R list announcement last Monday, and if you haven’t done so yet, we feel like you should sell the following cards.
Birthing Pod
Voice of Resurgence
Steam Vents
Chalice of the Void
Dig Through Time
Birthing Pod has nowhere to go but down; this card will settle below 1 tix at some point so it will always be correct to sell it sooner rather than later. Being almost exclusively played in Pod decks, Voice of Resurgence should also fall hard, though it’s still a small-set mythic. The current buy price at Goatbots is about 13 tix; if you can’t get 10 tix or more for your playset, holding is correct.
Steam Vents and Chalice of the Void prices were really dependent on the omnipresence of U/R Delver decks. Although they will not drop as hard as or as low the first two cards, they should be getting cheaper in the short term. The blue-red shockland will still be the most widely played in Modern of all the shocklands.
Finally, one of our calls from last week, Dig Through Time sustained its previous price because of a high playability in the second most played format online, Modern. With its ban we don’t think this delve instant has anything to gain in the next few months. If you bought last week or are holding extra copies, sell now and cut your losses. This will continued to be opened in the months ahead. It might turn out to be a potent option in Legacy, but that’s not yet clear.
Great article
But the selling part would be a little bit late 🙂
Thanks Jerry!
I suggested last week that it might be a good idea to sell Voice of Resurgence (and Archangel of Thune) in advance of the B/R announcement. It’s also important to realize that, even if you don’t sell at the perfect time, it’s usually correct to cut your losses and sell anyway, before prices continue to tank. You might get 2+ tix for Dig Through Time today, but it could very well be ~1 tix in a month.
We’ll try to be more explicit on the sell calls going forward, and there have been rumblings of creating a B/R watch list, which might provide some extra caution on the cards that might be banned.
As Matt mentioned, and as stated in the report, the important with these sells is to save some tix. In case you were not sure whether to hold or to sell, we think it’s a 100% sell situation whatever is your loss here.
In the future, our sell calls will be based on our buying calls, and should hopefully be very positive 🙂
I feel the deck that will be best suited in the new modern format will be junk. Pod was really the only mediocre m/u for the deck and now it’s gone. It preys upon twin decks and has a decent game against the rest of the field. I would keep an eye on the cards that went into that deck.
Absolutely. Some of the big moves have been in Dark Confidant, Liliana of the Veil and Tarmogoyf. However, these have all made big moves upwards in price, so they are all riskier than other cards that might have been overlooked.
Thanks for reading, and commenting!