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Insider: The Modern Fallout from the Bans – Where to Put Your Money in the New Modern Format

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Wow. What a week. The banhammer fell, and it fell hard. As I’m sure we all know, Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time got the axe in Modern, and Cruise in Legacy. Additionally, Golgari Grave-Troll and Worldgorger Dragon were unbanned.

The real question is, what now? More important, what does this mean for us financially?

The Winners

-       Previously-Tier 2 decks are back. Things like Living End, traditional Splinter Twin, and other smaller decks had completely fallen off the radar. These are back, even if they may not be powerhouses in the new format.

-       URW is back, and I really like the idea that Geist of Saint Traft has upside. It’s protected from reprint in Modern Masters 2015, and just had a small-ish promo run to boot. Acquiring these at the $12-14 mark isn’t a bad idea.

-       Control builds based in Jeskai will also have a shot again. Good news for Supreme Verdict and Wrath of God, as well as possibly for Sphinx's Revelation.

-       Dark Confidant is back, and likely will terrorize the format for a while to come. BGx (likely Abzan for Siege Rhino and/or Lingering Souls) will probably become the de facto king of the format. It will almost never be a bad choice, and I expect players to flock to it.

-       Affinity again becomes the preeminent aggro deck (along with some Zoo), and remains a solid starting point for many players. With that in mind, Stony Silence at $2 looks really good, and even Creeping Corrosion at bulk prices looks like a solid bet.

-       I’m less excited about Grave-Troll and Dredge, but if you’re putting any money here, I’d much rather put it in near-bulk Lotleth Trolls and Gravecrawlers (which has plenty of appeal going for it at <$5), rather than in Vengevines, which could hit $30 but have already risen and require a much greater buy-in. Bloodghast isn’t a bad target at $6-7, though again we get to where we’re committing quite a bit for simply a chance at a payoff.

-       If you really want to go deep on Graveyard strategies or a traditional “dredge” deck, nothing is more attractive than currently-bulk Magus of the Bazaar. A Planar Chaos Rare? If this shows up at the Pro Tour and gets some camera time it’s likely $5+ instantly. Hedron Crab is also a sneaky pick-up.

-       Scavenging Ooze. I really liked this before, and it’s even better now. It looks like games are going to swing back around to Goyf wars rather than Pod/Delver wars, and that’s where Ooze shines. Additionally, it has a lot of built-in value against the graveyard strategies opened back up.

-       Liliana of the Veil. I don’t know if they think they can get this into Magic 2016 or what, but if they don’t we’re looking at a long time before this is reprinted. It won’t be in Modern Masters 2, and the PTQ promos won’t significantly dent the price. We’re about to see a lot of Lilianas in our Modern format. I also expect more Lingering Souls, though it’s been reprinted so many times I doubt there’s much upside.

-       More than ever, I love Abrupt Decay. I want every one of these I can get at $10 in trade or $8ish in cash. Barring a reprint, I fully expect this to be $20 in the next 12-18 months. Percentage-wise nothing insane, but a really safe pick all around.

-       Thrun, the Last Troll seems solid at $10-12. The price has been essentially flat for almost a year, which I actually don’t hate. It’s a house against control decks and very good against Rock decks. That said, it has to compete with Siege Rhino at the four-drop spot, and may well not make the cut.

-       Chord of Calling becomes the best creature tutor in the format, and it’s so cheap right now from the reprint I see nothing but upside here.

The Losers

-       I thought Birthing Pod would be in Modern Masters 2015 along with a Phyrexian mana theme of Gitaxian Probe and Spellskite. I stlll think Spellskite is a likely inclusion, but the case for more than a one-off of the theme seems unlikely with Pod gone.

-       All the Delver hate cards. As much as I enjoyed the run on Forked Bolt, it’s going to slowly being sinking back down. Likewise, Chalice of the Void will be in free-fall.

-       Torpor Orb will be slower to fall since it’s kind of a next-level reaction to Pod bannings, but I doubt it goes any higher from this point, so it seems prudent to move these now for a profit.

-       The same goes for Shadow of Doubt. While it still has uses (Scapeshift comes to mind), it’s been steadily trending downward and will likely continue to do so.

-       Ignoble Hierarch? Honestly, I’m not sure. It’s still the premiere mana dork and may find a home in resurgent Infect decks. It’s not like it gets bad or anything, but it is $60 in one card that is staring down a reprint in Modern Masters 2015. I’m just not sure I can justify holding these if you’re not playing with them.

There’s obviously a really long way to go in Modern, and the Pro Tour will kick it all off, possibly with something we haven’t even thought of yet. I don’t know what exactly will happen, but I think we can make some good guess.

And, either way, it’s going to be fun to watch.

 

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

8 thoughts on “Insider: The Modern Fallout from the Bans – Where to Put Your Money in the New Modern Format

  1. What about Young Pyromancer ? I was not expecting it to go much down with the bannings but it is slowly doing so. Is it also a kind of next-level reaction to Treasure Cruise banning ? I mean, the card has a home by itself (even before Treasure Cruise shown up).

    1. Agreed, but for the time being (and foreseeable future) it will be Tier 2. I don’t think it will go down much (maybe the foils), but I don’t see huge upside either since it’s an easy reprint.

  2. I’ve seen some discordance on Chord of Calling… it’s really attractive at $3 – but I’m not so sure I would sink more than a few copies atm.

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