Watching Grand Prix Vancouver coverage last weekend, one thing became decisively clear.

I believe Wizards put it best in their summary of the first nine rounds on Day 1:

The story of the [first] day was the resurgence of Splinter Twin after the momentum gain that was Pro Tour Fate Reforged. The two-card combo has broken out like a bad rash here, and some decks are even running cards like Vedalken Shackles maindeck to take down the mirror.

If you’re sitting on a bunch of Splinter Twins, I’d begin to sweat if I were you.

Suddenly I’m reminded of the old-school Snapple commercials. You know, the one with the Snapple bottle cheerleaders chanting for Cola and the announcer confessing they want to be number three. Oh, why don’t you just invest 31 seconds of time and watch it:

What does this have to do with MTG Finance? Everything.

I Want To Be #3!!!

I’d settle for number two, but I definitely don’t want to be speculating heavily on cards in the best Modern deck right now, no matter what it is.

I mean, it’ll be a great ride sitting on the cards in the best Modern deck... for a couple months. But once a deck consistently outperforms, it leaps onto WOTC’s radar – that’s when you know potential bans are incoming.

And we all know what happens to banned cards:

Or even cards only played in the deck that was hosed by said banning:

The Orzhov Pontiff chart above is most telling, if you ask me. That card was on an exponential rise, being bought out everywhere as key maindeck and sideboard tech for and against Birthing Pod strategies.

After briefly touching $20, the card swiftly fell back down to $10. But it was the banning of Birthing Pod that buried the hatchet, sending this card’s value all the way down to its pre-spike price of around $6.

Clearly, and quite obviously, bannings can have a drastically negative impact on many card prices.

Just ask yet another recently hit card, Linvala, Keeper of Silence. She may be a very difficult to find Angel, but she’s no longer all that relevant in Modern. Now it really is just casual play or Angel collectors propping up her ludicrous price. Needless to say, there’s no upside here.

My Strategy Going Forward

In a way, I’ve created a paradox for myself. I don’t want to be sitting on many copies of any card if it’s currently in a dominant Modern build. As a recent Melira Pod player in Modern, I know the pain of watching a deck drop in value overnight. It’s not a pretty picture and I wouldn’t wish it on anyone.

But if I avoid hot cards altogether, I’ll miss out on some of the greatest runs in Modern. Orzhov Pontiff made some people a ton of money before it tanked right back down again. And while they didn’t have a chance to bounce yet, I am confident there was a ton of upside in Voice of Resurgence and Chord of Calling. Not anymore.

We must resort to a balancing act – we want to be invested in hot Modern cards as they rise, but we must not become complacent. If you decide to buy into Splinter Twin because the deck is suddenly dominant, you sign yourself up for closely monitoring the metagame. One too many GP wins, and you could be looking at a sizable loss.

I don’t care how hot the card is now – selling into hype is still the play. Always.

Splinter Twin

The List

$

See Trader Tools

0%

Spread

$6.97

See Trader Tools

Click to load historical prices.

Or if you discover you prefer Abzan cards for their recent popularity, be careful going ultra-deep on Siege Rhino. It’s a Standard card still, for one, but it also cannot be too powerful in Modern without getting overly scrutinized.

I’m not saying we’re there yet. Far from it. I’m just urging care when buying deep into any Modern card in a dominant deck.

What’s the definition of “dominant”? Beats me. Wizards seems to have some arbitrary criteria they use. Birthing Pod was dominant. Deathrite Shaman was dominant. Treasure Cruise was dominant. I believe they aim to ban any card that warps the format so much that a large number of other fringe decks are not played because they just aren’t good enough.

Then again, how many Modern decks are actually “good enough” now? Three? Four? Certainly not enough. So the recent bannings didn’t really solve the problem, did it? It made for a lot of excitement at Pro Tour Fate Reforged only to witness a format get solved in three days.

Well, that’s what we get for demanding a Modern Pro Tour. Wizards did warn us about this, I suppose.

I say, let’s bring on the Legacy Pro Tour. But that’s just me.

In any event, just be careful when buying deeply into the best Modern deck. And for those who enjoy battling at various tournaments, I’d strongly urge you to strive for number three. That is, picking up the third best deck in the current metagame.

It will be good enough to keep you competitive, while also dodging the WOTC banning radar. This is the perfect balance to ensure you can win some events while not getting blown out by a sudden banning.

Wrapping It Up

I want to be number three! What I really mean to say is, I don’t want to play the “best” Modern deck right now. I did that with my Melira Pod deck and I got buried by the recent banning.

I suppose the writing was on the wall, and I can’t say I was truly surprised by the announcement. But there’s still that glimmer of hope inside that just maybe you’ll be allowed to continue using your $500 investment for another three months.

Put this way, the chain of events sounds rather depressing, doesn’t it? I really pity the players who foiled out their Melira Pod build, only to watch it tank in value. I can’t think of other hobbies where such large investments can suddenly become unusable.

It would be like buying a new set of golf clubs, only to find out they didn’t follow the PGA’s standards for golf club design and so they were banned. I can’t imagine the PGA does this all that often.

Wizards of the Coast has certainly developed a reputation for acting rashly when banning cards in Modern. They are doing their very best to keep the format healthy, but so far I would have to say success has eluded them.

And if the metagame continues to be Splinter Twin, Burn, Abzan, and Bloom Titan, I think additional changes will be inevitable. Just make sure you’re on the third best deck when that time comes.

Happy balancing!

…

Sigbits

• SCG is sold out of nonfoil Splinter Twins at $21.29. If the deck puts up a strong showing in the GP Vancouver Top 8, expect this to be $30 very rapidly.
• I am finally building my first somewhat strategized Tiny Leaders deck. My leader of choice? Well, I wanted to play Blue/Black, so that left me with only one option. Sygg, River Cutthroat. I found my copy for $6 on eBay, but SCG is completely sold out at $5.45. If Tiny Leaders continues to gain momentum, this card will certainly hit $10, as Blue/Black is a fairly popular color combination in Magic. Just look at Underground Sea if you don’t believe me.
• Something doesn’t look right. Star City Games has no nonfoil Pact of Negations in stock. That’s to be expected. What seems odd is their pricing: $24.99 for Future Sight copies but $13.99 for Modern Masters copies? They’re the same artwork, right? And the price discrepancy isn’t nearly this significant on TCG Player. I can understand the discrepancy on foils, but the nonfoil versions should be much closer in price. Something needs to be updated here.