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Insider: MTG Stock Watch 2/22/15

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Welcome back, readers! It's time for another of my bi-weekly articles looking at the trends in the MTG finance market as a whole. As usual we start with the cheaper cards that saw the most change.

Penny Stocks

#1 Summer Bloom (Starter) (+223.6%) - Wow, talk about the impact of the last PT (coupled with some success on the SCG Circuit). Summer Bloom is one of the key cards in the Bloom Titan decks of Modern (allowing for the turn two titan).

It's important to note that the Starter version is the one seeing the massive rise and that in Starter 1999 it was a rare (so there are even fewer of them). The other versions are still gaining, but nowhere near this high of a jump.

summerbloomrare

#2 Outpost Siege (+70.9%) - With the resurgence of aggro style decks in Standard, having a free "Goblin Bombardment" trigger when a creature dies (though you can't sacrifice creatures to it) is a great way to finish off an opponent and punish the control decks that rely so heavily on wrath effects to stabilize. The alternate ability (Chandra's +0) is a great way for fast aggro decks to gain card advantage, especially since by the time they cast the Siege they are likely low on cards to begin with.

outpost siege

#3 Mishra's Bauble (+48.4%) - Another carry over from the PT, this card showed up in Patrick Chapin's graveyard based delve deck as a free cantrip that helps fill the graveyard. Its single printing coupled with coming from a slightly older set gave it some potential, though Patrick's mediocre record at the actual PT does bring the deck's actual competitiveness into question. Still a great example of how a PT can affect a card's price.

Mishras bauble

#4 Summer Bloom (9th Edition) (+47.4%) - As I mentioned for the first spot, this card is still on a tear financially thanks to repeated successful showings. The deck itself is incredibly powerful, but has proven itself to be somewhat finicky; given it has very little ability to react to an opponent's plays and relies heavily on speed and going "over the top".

summerbloom9th

#5 Chromanticore (+37.7%) - This is seeing a bit of play in a Standard deck based around Soulflayer. It was posted on SCG and I've heard of a few people trying to build Soulflayer into a "voltroned up" threat. By exiling Chromanticore and a Sylvan Caryatid, one can build a hexproof Baneslayer Angel again, though obviously you're jumping through more hoops than just paying 2 white and 3 colorless mana. Still the interaction is powerful and delve has re-proven it's power level in Standard.

chromanticore

Blue Chip Stocks

As usual our Legacy staples show much smaller shifts in pricing.

#1 Tarmogoyf (+7.11%) - Wowzers, the king of efficient creatures got a huge bump thanks to the recent bannings of Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time in Modern (and Treasure Cruise in Legacy).

This isn't a huge surprise when you really think about it, but we haven't seen this big of a jump in a single week in quite awhile. This just goes to show you how prevalent he was at the Modern PT and how much confidence players have in him either not showing up in MM2015 (unlikely) or showing back up at mythic rare (which will cause his price to drop a bit, but likely not a ton).

tarmogoyf

#2 Show and Tell (-1.65%) - It appears that the old Sneak and Show players have still felt that now is not Sneak and Show's time to shine again. The shift away from Treasure Cruise style decks (which play a plethora of cheap/efficient countermagic) should eventually cause this card to rebound, but until that time we'll keep seeing it dip (especially given it's only played in a couple Legacy decks (Know and Tell, Sneak and Show, Reanimator). This also may be linked to the fact that Containment Priest is a beating for any of these "cheat a fatty into play" style decks and they haven't adapted to it yet.

show and tell

#3 Dark Confidant (-1.52%) - This one I'll admit is a bit surprising, given the best card advantages in Modern just got banned (both TC and Pod) one would expect Bob to rise back to his former glory. But with Modern being so heavily focused on a creatures, there's just so much removal floating around and poor Bob is only immune to a little of it (mainly Slaughter Pact).

dark confidant

#4 Plateau (-1.45%) - The red-white dual has long been the outcast of the dual land family. It doesn't tap for blue and both red and white are usually more "supplemental colors" (as in they provide efficient removal, but not a lot of power outside of Stoneforge Mystic). The old American/Jeskai Delver decks seem to have vanished as have the Jeskai Blade decks of last year. Should we see them experience a resurgence, expect this land to bounce back; after all, there are a finite number of copies and it's not reprintable.

Plateau

#5 Bayou (-1.33%) - This dual saw its first big jump with the resurgence of Elves (with the black splash for Thoughtseize), but Elves has semi-fallen out of favor (when Ross Merriam won't play it...nobody should). Similar to Plateau though, when the deck that creates the most demand starts to resurge so will its price. It also helps that this land plays a role in the Shardless BUG decks that seem relatively well positioned right now.

bayou

Opportunities

This week's opportunities will focus on the Modern format.

#1 Primeval Titan - We've seen Summer Bloom and Amulet of Vigor jump dramatically. It seems odd that these cards are only good in a deck that plays Primeval Titan, and yet he's only had three total printings (GP Promo and as a mythic in both M11/M12). Sure he's banned in EDH, but that's because his power level was so ridiculous they had to ban him...so with all the other cards in the Bloom Titan deck jumping dramatically, why hasn't he budged?

One might argue that it's due to the "cost of entry" being considerably higher than the other cards (after all, a month ago you could buy almost 8 Summer Blooms for the cost of one Primeval Titan); but if that's the case than the price jumps on those cards are mainly due to speculators and not players (since players would want everything for the deck, not just the cheap stuff).

#2 Gavony Township - This single-printed land (I don't believe it's found its way into a duel deck) from Innistrad will not make its way into MM2015 and yet it had a strong showing on camera at the last Modern PT. It breaks Abzan mirrors in half by eliminating stalemates (when your Siege Rhinos are bigger than theirs you tend to win). It's not legendary so multiples can be on the field at once and it can turn even the lowliest mana dork into a true threat given enough time.

#3 Vault of the Archangel - Similar to Gavony Township above, this land did some work on camera at the last Modern PT. It turns all of your little guys into Ambush Vipers and the fact that it shares colors with Lingering Souls (not to mention how well it plays with that card) means it has a lot of promise. Now this one did show up in the Modern Event Deck, but the fact that foils of this are only $4 (and it's also awesome in EDH) means that I'd target foils if possible first.

#4 Academy Ruins - We got an insider email about this at the onset of the Modern PT, but the card didn't really seem to pan out. However, its power level is still really high and for those who don't remember, pre-Modern Masters printing it was a $13 card. Lands have a lot of power in Modern because without a Wasteland in the format, non-basic land destruction is usually limited to one or two copies per deck (if any). I personally think we'll begin to see a shift towards more non-basic "spell" lands as the format progresses (especially if we see a drop in Blood Moon usage).

#5 Vedalken Shackles - It's important to remember that blue shocklands count towards Vedalken Shackles so one doesn't need a high basic Island count to run the card effectively. It serves as a great answer to decks that rely on a single threat and can be used as a pseudo removal spell to take weaker creatures to chump block more powerful ones that can't be taken. This used to be an almost $20 card with limited play and while the MMA printing seemed to have killed the original price, it's important to note that it was a mythic in MMA so there honestly weren't a whole lot added to supply. Given its lack of use currently it just doesn't seem all that likely to find a home in MM2015 so it has a lot of upside potential.

Growth Stocks

As you can see the whole Innistrad block didn't fair too well this past month, with Dark Ascension taking the biggest hit. Though it's not surprising given the whole set isn't worth a box today. Our biggest gainer was Mirrodin Besieged though it does look possible that a single outlier is propping up what would likely be a much smaller gain.

It's still important to note that with the exception of Dark Ascension sealed product is still going for considerably more than its original purchase price of around $95 per box (if you bought online or from some LGS's). My biggest concern with sealed product of any kind is the difficulty of unloading it, so I'd love to hear people's thoughts on that particular aspect in the comments. I've mainly invested in sealed duel decks and commander decks, but have yet to sell any.

Week of 2/22/15

Box Most Recent Completed Auction Second Most Recent Third Most Recent Fourth Most Recent New Average Average comparison
Innistrad $205.00 $205.00 $205.00 $205.00 $205.00 -4.51%
Dark Ascension $90.00 $78.08 $83.36 $91.00 $85.61 -17.48%
Avacyn Restored $140.00 $134.95 $144.95 $133.00 $138.23 -3.97%
Scars of Mirrodin $219.95 $165.00 $209.95 $194.99 $197.47 9.87%
Mirrodin Besieged $153.58 $169.90 $142.50 $140.00 $151.50 12.62%
New Phyrexia $344.95 $299.00 $310.00 $275.00 $307.24 1.50%
Zendikar $516.99 $455.00 $529.99 $529.00 $507.75 -3.39%
Worldwake $699.99 $674.99 $674.99 $675.00 $681.24 0.07%
Rise of the Eldrazi $509.99 $479.99 $446.69 $524.99 $490.42 -5.01%

One thought on “Insider: MTG Stock Watch 2/22/15

  1. Local Facebook groups can be a good way to unload sealed product. I find there are always people who are looking to buy sealed booster boxes for drafting.

    Not sure about Commander/Duel Decks though, I’d imagine eBay would be better for that type of product?

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