Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Edit: Sorry for the delay on posting this article to the Main Page; there was a mixup on the WordPress side of things. -Matt

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of February 22^nd, 2015. The MTGO prices reflect the set sell price scraped from the Supernova Bots website while the TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively. Note that it usually takes about a month after a set releases on MTGO for it be available for redemption, so expect FRF to be redeemable in the first week of March.

Overall, it is very evident in the Weekly Change values for MTGO that prices have started to rebound from the lows reached during FRF release events. Prices are still depressed relative to last month though, indicating there is still potential for higher prices over the coming weeks as the MTGO economy normalizes after the recent conclusion of release events.

Return to Ravnica Block and M14

A special mention is due for M14 this week. It looks like it has finally bottomed in MTGO and it has one of the best ratios between digital and paper set prices, which suggests this set is firmly in ‘good value’ territory. Keep an eye on Archangel of Thune, Mutavault and Scavenging Ooze for cards that carry a low price, relative to their potential in Modern.

Interest in that format will be continue to increase as we approach the Spring and MM2, so this bodes well for all redeemable, online sets that contain Modern playable cards.

The outlook for both RTR and GTC remains positive. Both sets continue to see week-over-week price increases in paper, while the digital version of RTR has also turned upward. This week, GTC on MTGO was flat to negative.

Theros Block and M15

The THS block sets have all rebounded in recent weeks from their bottom during FRF release events, and are also seeing modest price gains in paper. They are not likely to revisit their Fall price peaks, but the coming weeks will be a good time to unwind any lingering positions in these sets.

A recent buy recommendation from THS was Xenagos, the Reveler. The red-green planeswalker has seen a recent bump in price due to the resurgence of red-green strategies in Standard, but they don’t appear to be Tier 1. It’s possible that a new iteration pushes them into a more dominant position in Standard, but more likely it will be taken up only by big mana enthusiasts. It’s time to consider selling Xenagos, though there will be another window coming up shortly where the Standard metagame will be shaken up by DTK.

It’s not clear what could push this deck over the top in terms of power level, but pay attention to the upcoming spoilers and consider the potential impact on this, not yet ready for prime time, strategy.

A second recent recommendation was Keranos, God of Storms from JOU. This card is still in relatively short supply and has seen a firm price above 10 tix in recent weeks. With Twin strategies settled into the Tier 1 of Modern decks, expect this card to appreciate in price leading up to the Modern MOCS preliminaries and championships. That might not even be the short-term peak for this card, if interest in Modern builds out to the release of MM2. This card is firm ‘hold’ at the moment, with no real risk of decline in the coming weeks.

Relative to paper prices, M15 has some of the highest online prices for a large, redeemable set. There’s just very little upside in this set at current prices, though Chandra, Pyromaster has fallen into a potentially attractive price range. If this card falls further to about 5 or 6 tix, it would be correct to start accumulating.

Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged

It might be unnecessary to point this out, but the Modern staple Siege Rhino is currently priced at around 2 tix. With KTK only weeks away from not being actively drafted, the window to pick this card up at a reasonable price is closing. Continue to buy these with an eye to holding them for at least the medium term. This is a low-risk position to take with a fairly decent upside. Landing in the 4 to 6 tix range by February of 2016 is not unreasonable.

Prices for individual cards from FRF are seeing some back and forth as the Standard metagame resolves itself around the new set. Despite the slight bump in the set price in the past week, it’s only a matter of time before a downward trend reestablishes itself. Look for FRF to fall into the 50 to 65 tix range by July, which is roughly a 30-45% downside from current prices.

Consider taking any short-term profits from this set off the table sooner rather than later. Small sets have a high hurdle to clear to get any support from redemption and FRF will not be exceptional in that regard.

Modern

The Top 8 of past weekend’s Grand Prix Vancouver again reflected a fairly diverse Modern format at high level events. Similarly to PT Fate Reforged, a Splinter Twin deck took the trophy home and Amulet Combo decks made a strong impression by putting two copies into the Top 8. This result doesn’t have a lot of financial implications, just a message to ‘stay the course’ as we are still in the middle of a Modern MOCS season.

Vintage and Legacy

The just announced release of Tempest Remastered will no doubt bring a significant increase in the number of Wastelands in the MTGO economy. This is good news for Legacy enthusiasts looking to get established on MTGO. Longer term, keep in mind that there is a Legacy MOCS at the end of 2015. Although still a ways off, compiling a short list of cards that are played in Legacy and currently value priced is a good idea.

Start with Gaea's Cradle and Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Both cards have seen significant price declines in the past year due to a promo printing and showing up in VMA, respectively. It’s not time to buy these to speculate on, but if you are thinking about getting into Legacy or Vintage on MTGO, they are probably not going to be getting much cheaper in the near term.

Tempest Remastered should be well received by players so it’s reasonable to expect to see a rebooted Masques block draft format down the road. This would finally bring down the price on Rishadan Port and other cards from these sets, further lowering the sticker shock of taking up Legacy on MTGO.

Pauper

Pauper has been revitalized with more Daily Events each week. The good news is that this change has been backed up by popular demand, which bodes well for the demand for Pauper cards. Several Pauper cards have been on the rise lately and although speculating on Pauper positions is a little trickier than speculating on cards from Modern and Standard, a few cards might be worth a shot.

A short list of potential targets include TSP Serrated Arrows, Moment's Peace, INV Exclude, Adaptive Snapjaw, VMA Cloud of Faeries, and Cuombajj Witches. Due to their playability and relative low prices compared to previous heights, Mental Note, ODY Innocent Blood and VIS Crypt Rats are Pauper-relevant cards with the most potential from our perspective.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Pauper

Mental Note <0.5 Tix
ODY Innocent Blood
VIS Crypt Rats

Considering their previous heights, these three cards have the most potential for good returns. The introduction of delve is making Mental Note a very attractive target with no previous history of Pauper playability. Being printed in Judgment means the supply for Mental Note is extremely limited and a price of several Tix is reasonable to expect for this card.

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Modern

MMA Slaughter Pact - The black pact has nicely bounced back this past weekend despite being played mostly as a one-of in Modern deck lists. Its price having basically doubled since we recommended buying it, it’s a good opportunity to sell this position now.

Thrun, the Last Troll Thrun didn’t meet our expectation as a sideboard card for green decks in Modern. Its price is currently plummeting and outcomes are not favorable in a near future. With a potential reprint in MM2 on the horizon, it’s time to sell this one, even if it’s at a loss.