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Insider: Beyond the Hype – Analyzing the $5+ Dragons of Tarkir Preorders

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With the complete Dragon's of Tarkir spoiler out, it's time to start talking card prices.

As we're all aware, pre-ordering will lose you money more often than not. Even still, tons of cards get pre-ordered and the occasional gem will increase in value from its pre-order price. So let's talk about cards that are receiving considerable hype and what their price trajectory looks like.

Deathmist Raptor

I like Deathmist Raptor more than most. I think that it plays super well with Den Protector and I could see these two showing up with Rattleclaw Mystic and Sagu Mauler in a post-rotation deck.

deathmistraptor

That said, the card doesn't really have a home right now, and that's going to cause it to decrease a few dollars in value before rotation happens, when I predict it could see some serious play and increase in value.

It is possible that Raptor could show up in GW Devotion in the place of Fleecemain Lion due to synergy with Whisperwood Elemental and Mastery of the Unseen, but the value is so marginal compared to what the rest of the deck is doing and it only really occurs when the deck is working anyway.

Verdict: Wait

Dragon Whisperer

ZOMG RED DEVOTION IS BACK!

Except not really. It's true that Dragon Whisperer adds another decent enabler for a potential Red Devotion deck, but is it really the hero that we need?

Dragon Whisperer

As somebody who played a ton of Red Devotion, I would say definitely not. The things that made the deck good were Burning-Tree Emissary giving you free wins, Boros Reckoner being an absurd Magic card, and the deck being the best home for the insanely efficient Chained to the Rocks.

Not only are the most explosive cards in the deck gone, but there's also a much better Chained to the Rocks deck in the format. This card could find its way into Mono Red Aggro, but it doesn't solve the Drown in Sorrow problem and it's not often better than other two-drops.

Verdict: Avoid.

Dragonlords

I'm going to lump these together, because I feel the same way about the lot of them, for the most part.

Dragonlord AtarkaDragonlord DromokaDragonlord OjutaiDragonlord Kolaghan
Dragonlord Silumgar

Kolaghan actually pre-orders for a little less than $5, which is interesting because I think he's the second best of the lot.

He's technically less powerful than Atarka, but his colors have much worse pay-off cards in the same mana-range and he's much better at pressuring planeswalkers. A convenient ability, considering he punishes opponents for playing planeswalkers that they've already played that game.

Atarka sits at an awkward mana cost and likely won't see play for as long as we have Genesis Hydra. Dromoka doesn't make the slightest bit of sense in the very powerful existing Selesnya deck, Kolaghan is probably too expensive in the sort of deck that would want him, and Ojutai just looks worse than leaving up mana for Dissolve and Jace's Ingenuity.

Silumgar is great, though. He punishes players for playing planeswalkers in a big way and comes in for sideboard games against opponents who shouldn't have much in the way of answers to him anymore. Or, if you think that they will have answers, you can leave him on your sideboard and potentially strand them with dead cards.

Silumgar also strikes me as a home-run for Commander, and I don't know if we'll ever see much, if any, of a dip in price on that particular dragonlord.

Verdict: Buy as many Silumgar as immediately needed, assess later as a potential spec. Avoid the others.

Narest, Transcendent

R&D has to really screw up for a $50 pre-order to ever be justified. Maybe they gave ol' Narset a little too much loyalty, but this is a planeswalker that is completely reliant on external factors to have any impact in games. In particular, she takes up a slot that would be used for high-impact cards in a control shell and doesn't really deliver much as a top-deck.

Narset Transcendent

I believe Narset will see play. I could even see Narset being part of a very good deck.

That said, the price here is in Jace, the Mind Sculptor territory. Jace completely warped a format in addition to being in a pretty unpopular set, in which he accounted for most of the value of.

$50 isn't the price you pay for "very good". It's the price you pay for absurdities.

Verdict: Wait.

Ojutai Exemplars

I like this card a lot.

That said, I don't know if it quite hacks it in the style of decks that want it. Jeskai decks are already glutted at three and have access to Outpost Siege at four.

None of the options for these decks, aside from Monastery Mentor, force you to wait to leave up mana and have other spells to cast them, and the difference between doing this for Mentor and Exemplars is substantial.

Ojutai Exemplars

I've having difficulty imagining that this card never sees Standard play. I'm having more difficulty imagining that it sees enough play pre-rotation to maintain a $10 price tag.

There's just so much going on at four mana right now, and a lot of it is at very high power levels. I'm sure that Mentor and Exemplars can fit into a sweet deck post-rotation, but I expect a dip here before we get there.

Verdict: Wait.

Ojutai's Command

ojutaiscommand

Let's be real. Unless you're using this to cast Calculated Dismissal, you're paying a lot for what you get. Even when that is what you're doing, only being able to target creatures is very poor.

The first ability not being good at all in decks that want a four mana spell like this is ultimately what kills this card for me. If the wording was slightly changed so that you could get back Monastery Mentor, I'd see something here, but that's just not the case. Don't believe the hype.

Verdict: Avoid.

Sarkhan Unbroken

This card is very good and actively makes me want to play Temur. He might be a little weak pre-rotation, but he's almost guaranteed to show up when we lose Theros.

sarkhanunbroken

But that sure is a long way off, and $30 isn't what we should be paying to wait and see. Expect a dip here. Depending on how far Sarkhan falls, I could even see really liking him as a spec.

Keep an eye on this one, because the power is definitely there.

Verdict: Wait.

Shaman of Forgotten Ways

It's a Palladium Myr that trades the ability to cast non-creatures for a third point of toughness. The formidable ability is basically flavor text.

There's not much reason to play this while we still have Nykthos, and I'm not sure there will be much reason to play it after we lose Nykthos either. I want to say this is a neat Commander card, but pre-ordering for Commander specs is assuredly wrong.

Shaman of Forgotten Ways

Verdict: Avoid.

Shorecrasher Elemental

Unlike with Red Devotion, Blue Devotion still has all of its payoff cards in Standard.

Shorecrasher Elemental gives you a sweet devotion enabler, but at the cost of totally sucking.

In order to trade with ubiquitous cards like Siege Rhino and Courser of Kruphix, you'll need to sink some mana into your Shorecrasher. Master of Waves also struggles in a world of Drown in Sorrow and Bile Blight.

That said, I think that there is a build of Blue Devotion that can work. There are very powerful pieces and Disdainful Stroke can help you beat most of the things you care about.

Even still, the deck isn't going to take over the format or be long-lived. If the deck spikes a tournament you might see small gains on Shorecrasher, but mostly you can expect to watch its price slowly decline.

Verdict: Avoid

One More Thing: An Under-Hyped Card

I'm pretty surprised that Dromoka's Command is pre-ordering for as little as it is. This card has abilities that are awesome against everybody but straight control decks, and it's easily the best Command.

Dromoka's Command

With the ability to pump and fight Siege Rhinos, this card heightens the importance of being on the play in Abzan mirrors and offers a powerful maindeck way to beat Chained to the Rocks and Outpost Siege.

It's not as exciting as other cards, and I think that's what is causing it to be under-hyped. It is just a regular rare, but I was expecting a $5 tag on this one, and that's just not the case.

I expect this card to do very well at an early tournament and see at least a temporary price bump. It's also quite likely to be good even after rotation, so I'd watch it as a spec.

Verdict: Buy

~

Dragons of Tarkir looks like a sweet set, and I'm excited to start playing with it. If you're playing at a pre-release this weekend, then I wish you the best of luck and I hope that this information helps you to make some good trades!

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

One thought on “Insider: Beyond the Hype – Analyzing the $5+ Dragons of Tarkir Preorders

  1. I mean, prerelease is always avoid/wait, but I think you’re missing the beauty of dragon bear. It’s not a red devotion card, it’s casual gold. Could also see play in a rampy deck. if you have the mana to make dragons with it, you probably have formidable, but I can see how this would probably not actually see constructed play. Still, dragon roost on a bear seems like something you’d want to pick up a bunch of at some point

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