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Insider: Know Your Limitations & Leverage the Experts

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Throughout my experiences investing in the stock market, Iā€™ve often reverted back to the age-old strategy of ā€œbuying what you knowā€.

In other words, with literally thousands of equities to choose from, itā€™s nearly impossible to have an opinion on every single one. Even CNBC personality Jim Cramer hesitates to provide his thoughts on some stocks ā€“ recently I heard him get stumped by an up-and-coming safety shoe and cowboy boot retailer known as Boot Barn.

Now, of course, itā€™s his full-time job to know about stocks. Heā€™s paid to research them on a daily, if not hourly, basis, and he can certainly afford the time to do so. Especially when heā€™s faced with a stumper.

Many of us speculators arenā€™t pursuing the sport of MTG Finance full-time, however. There may even be more unique Magic: The Gathering cards than there are stocks traded across the NASDAQ and NYSE. Adding in foreign languages and foils, you very well may have more unique Magic cards than you have unique publicly traded companies worldwide. (Perhaps that would be a fun exercise for someone one day?)

So we combine the fact that there are a plethora of unique Magic cards and the notion that many of us are pursuing MTG Finance in our spare time, and we should come to this conclusion: we can't truly know the value and potential of every single card.

Now that Iā€™ve got this premise established, this week I want to share some of the implications of this truth.

Donā€™t Expect To Catch Every Jump

This is a somewhat intuitive statement whose execution is far more elusive. Every day I check the MTG Stocks Interest page ā€“ frequently I find myself feeling regretful for not missing out the latest spike. Perfect hindsight always leads to regret. ā€œOf course Mishra's Bauble is jumping! Itā€™s so obvious nowā€¦ā€ Sound familiar?

Bauble

Or how about this one: ā€œWhy didnā€™t I buy into Nin, the Pain Artist when I read about her in the QS forums?? Itā€™s such an obvious play on Tiny Leaders!ā€

Nin

Itā€™s so easy to fall into this self-deprecating trap. And since I continue to berate myself even as I write this article, I canā€™t offer up much in terms of productive advice. Instead Iā€™ll just re-state the facts and hope it resonates with you and me alike.

We cannot be an expert on every format and on every card. If youā€™ve got other obligations and a separate career, then itā€™s especially difficult to time your buys perfectly. And if youā€™re a Legacy enthusiast, you canā€™t expect to stay on top of every Standard trend. Likewise, if Tiny Leaders and Commander are your favorite formats, then knowing what fringe-playable Modern cards are spiking should not monopolize your focus.

Stick to what you know, and donā€™t fret when you miss an opportunity.

One thing I have managed to internalize is the fact that a new opportunity comes up almost every day. So today (Sunday) I may have missed on the Starter printing of Summer Bloom, which jumped 163%. But later this week Iā€™m confident something else will jump. Maybe Iā€™ll be on top of that one.

Trust the Experts

This is the necessary corollary that ties to the first section of this article. It is because we cannot anticipate every trend that we must rely on our network to outperform in MTG Finance. If you want to truly take advantage of opportunities outside of your area of expertise, youā€™ll need to stay engaged with those you respect for their knowledge of other areas.

For example, I admittedly do not have a deep understanding of Commander. I thoroughly enjoy the format and I have three different decks I like to play against friends. But as I battle against strangers at my LGS, I gradually realize my interpretation of the format is not universal. To me, Commander is a format where I can play all the fun cards I never get to enjoy when playing Legacy or Modern. This means I can pursue shenanigans such as Psychic Battle and Political Trickery.

It seems others do not follow this same train of thought. When playing blue, for example, Commander players tend to favor things like Force of Will and Time Warp, not to mention all the mana artifacts that enable acceleration towards Time Stretch.


Granted this isnā€™t a universally true statement ā€“ itā€™s merely my observation. But my perceptions are my reality. So from a financial standpoint, I know not to rely on myself for EDH analysis. After all, if it were up to me, Portcullis would be a $20 card.

Portcullis

Since Portcullis can be bought for twenty cents instead of twenty dollars, I choose to rely on the experts in the format when speculating.

This usually means our very own Jason Alt, but it also means I pay close attention to how our Insiders describe potential targets in the forums. If I rely on my own intuition, Iā€™ll never get it right. Thereā€™s a reason Iā€™m sitting on five or six copies of Koskun Falls scratching my head. The card just doesnā€™t get there. But where ā€œthereā€ is is beyond me. So I rely on the experts to buy into Commander targets.


And I have my ā€œgo-toā€ experts for other formats as well. Just like I know Jason is my Commander expert, I also know I can rely on Pi (an Insider) for knowledge of all the older, often obscure cards from sets like Legends and Arabian Nights.

In similar fashion I also know who to lean on for Vintage recommendations as well as graded Alpha stuff. I pay closest attention to Sealed Booster Boxes, Modern and Legacy singles, and there are numerous resources who can help with Standard.

Leverage Your Network

Now that youā€™ve recognized there are others in the community who focus on different areas of MTG Finance, how do you fully leverage them? In other words, how do you remain on top of the latest trends and make money using the information the experts provide?

Well, if youā€™re reading this article, youā€™ve already got a head start. Not because I am providing unique insights this week, but because it means you are a QS Insider. This means you have ready access to dozens of experienced MTG speculators in the QS forums.

The Single Card Discussion board is a priceless resource and a terrific place to read up on the latest buzz in MTG Finance. I highly recommend you read this board on a daily basis. After all, if youā€™re a day too late on some of these things you may completely miss the boat on a tremendous opportunity. (But donā€™t worry, there will be another tomorrow.)

Twitter is also a great way of obtaining the most up-to-date information. A ton of MTG financiers and speculators share their live observations of various events, metagames, and the like. And by following international players, you can ensure your feed is updated 24/7. Here's mine, for starters.

Rather than rattle off all the other social media venues for MTG Finance, let me just abbreviate by saying that you should stay as engaged as our time will allow. And if life is just a bit too busy at a given moment, then rest assured youā€™ll have plenty of opportunities to speculate when you return to the game.

I donā€™t see any end to speculation on the horizon.

Wrapping It Up

Tiny Leaders is one of the main reasons why I decided to write on this particular topic. A whole new format is taking shape, and players are eager to speculate left and right, myself included. Iā€™ve already picked up a couple extra copies of Sygg, River Cutthroat because I love Dimir strategies and I recognize this is the only Dimir leader.


But, to be fair, Iā€™m no Tiny Leaders expert. Perhaps no one is just yet, but I suspect a few will rise to the top soon enough. When that happens, pay close attention to what those speculators have to say. We can all buy into cards that involve converted mana costs three or less, but thereā€™s no real guarantee such buys will be any good once the format matures.

Rather than speculate wildly, Iā€™m going to recognize my lack of expertise in this format and pay close attention to what up-and-coming experts are saying.

Keep in mind the Tiny Leaders format hasnā€™t been ā€œsolvedā€ yet. But when youā€™re limiting leaders to a fixed pool (far fewer than there are EDH Generals) and deck size to just fifty cards, then the number of Tier 1 strategies will be finite.

At that point, many players will slow their own creative shenanigans and begin to net-deck, especially if there are Tiny Leader tournaments where valuable prizes can be won. This is when the real profits can be made ā€“ by staying on top of the strategies that are rising to the top and watching for cards that are played over and over again.

And, by the way, Tiny Leaders gives us yet another reason to play Dual Lands. So even if you are in the camp that Legacy is a slowly dying format, rest assured there will be demand for the mana-fixing lands for years to come.

Happy brewing, and I hope to see you in the forums and on Twitter discussing the latest trends!

ā€¦

Sigbits

I was noticing some interesting trends the other day. Namely, the price gap between original foils and their corresponding Modern Masters foils. My hope was to find foil copies of cards I needed for my Modern deck to try and dodge price hits upon reprinting. Sadly, things arenā€™t always consistent. Here are some examples:

  • Pact of Negation has been rallying significantly. Star City Games is sold out of non-foils: $24.99 for Future Sight copies and $19.99 for Modern Masters copies. But the price discrepancy in foils is what surprises me most ā€“ especially since the sets both use the same artwork! MMA copies are $29.99 while Future Sight foils will cost you $49.99!
  • Then we have foil Sword of Fire and Ice, which follows an opposite trend! Darksteel foils are $79.99 while MMA foils are $129.99. Thatā€™s a significant premium, likely driven by the new artwork used in Modern Masters and the existence of the Judge Foil version using the old artwork.
  • But not all new artworks are more desirable. Future Sight foil Tarmogoyf are in Power neighborhood, retailing for $799.99. Meanwhile the Modern Masters foils are $499.99, a full $300 cheaper! So things are not always so straight forward!

10 thoughts on “Insider: Know Your Limitations & Leverage the Experts

  1. Thanks for the vote of confidence! Funnily I would consider myself to be more of an EDH expert than an expert on the old cards (though I probably do very well where those categories overlap). For old cards I use a few basic principles:

    – Is it reserved?
    – Could I see myself playing it?
    – Is it showing movement?

    If it meets at least 2 out of 3 I’m interested, but, I will look for other people’s opinion unless I can score copies cheaply or if I’m just looking to complete a personal playset, if it meets all 3 I’m going for it. Fortunately with old cards even if they don’t continue moving up they rarely go down much and give it a few years and they’ll eventually will unless they are reprinted.

    Personally I would say my expertise lies with casual play in general and bulk rares. The former is based on my interest as a player and the latter as a collector. You will rarely see me make moves on any recent cards, usually I wait for rotation and then I often just pick up enough for my own playset unless I can see it getting a lot of casual interest in the future. Bulk rare wise I simply move through a lot of them (more on that some other time).

    1. You are very modest :). It was my pleasure to give you a mention – you’ve alerted me to numerous relevant Legends cards before anyone else even began talking about them. Angus Mackenzie, Adun Oakenshield come to mind immediately. Your P3K calls were spot-on as well…that is, until Wizards decided to reprint a ton of them.

      And I still watch cards like Island of Wak-Wak very closely, knowing full well they’ll spike at some point. Only this time I already have my 1 copy for personal enjoyment. I have learned not to ignore these suggestions of yours. šŸ™‚

      Speaking of which, are there any classic cards on your radar at this moment our Insiders should be aware of? I like Island of Wak-Wak, but I can’t help but believe there are others. Elephant Graveyard, perhaps?

      1. I was on top of the Legends cards based on Forum discussion, movement on MTGStocks and their casual relevance. I really wouldn’t have claimed to be a front runner there, but I was definitely quick enough to still have a chance. P3K was better, but the reprints really are an issue, these days I just get my playsets and nothing more.

        I definitely still see Island of Wak-Wak breaking out at some point. Same with Winding Canyons (to a lesser extend). I like Berserk enough to have picked up 5 Beta copies (found a cheap 5th). I have the feeling Power will move again and again, with less time between the spikes. I’m mostly finishing out my set there though, getting many pieces of Power just isn’t in my budget.

        I don’t really have a classic card I would recommend at this point, but one could probably do worse than Old Man of the Sea and Khabal Ghoul. I’m not sure I see Elephant Graveyard doing well, it’s just so limited in its applications.

          1. I can see Old Man of the Sea move here. A friend of mine just told me he’s looking for one, and I can’t imagine there are many copies floating around.

            Diamond Valley is an interesting one, and I’ve always considered Forcefield a banner Magic card, with memories of how expensive it was even back in the day. Maybe I should grab those at some point. Thanks pi and David for the suggestions!

          2. Shhh, don’t mention cards I still need to complete playsets for! šŸ˜‰

            I think they are good, but beyond many people’s budgets. I can’t see them go much higher based on infrequent EDH play alone.

            1. To be clear, while they are good, people aren’t likely to see them get played because there are so few players who own copies. If they aren’t seeing them get played they are not seeing how good they are. I think it would be easier for Old Man to creep up by $20-$30 than it would be for Field or Valley to do the same as they are at the edge of what even the most committed EDH players would spend.

        1. Guardian Beast here? Picked up my Old Man a few months ago, and the card is fun to own. I had it in my binder at the last GP I went to, and all the vendors kept low-balling me on it while at the same time commenting on its pristine condition. It was like “Wow, that’s a beautiful copy of this card… too bad no one wants it. $20?”

  2. It’s weird how often I come up with article ideas only to see you talk about similar ones the same week….I guess I shouldn’t have moved to Fridays. I think you bring up some VERY important points that people need to understand and keep in mind when speculating. I enjoyed the article.

    1. David,

      Thank you VERY much for your kind words. I was a little hesitant to write on this topic as it isn’t the traditional description of what cards to buy to make money. But the subject is important all the same. Hopefully others agree with you.

      As for topic stealing – of course it’s unintentional and quite random. I usually come up with article ideas the day before or morning of my writing them. This week, I didn’t have a specific topic for what cards to buy or sell, so I decided to go for a more general topic. With Tiny Leaders rising in popularity, it seemed timely. Great minds think alike!

      Thanks again for commenting,
      Sig

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