We often consider that selling into the hype is great move if not the best move to do. Almost two months ago, the B&R list announcement was expected to induce big changes in the Modern environment. Two dominant archetypes got hammered and at least a dozen different decks were assumed to have a spot in this fresh new Modern format.

In the wake of the 19th of January, close to a hundred Modern-playable cards got bought up in few days in a speculative spree. To name a few, Dark Confidant, Liliana of the Veil, Splinter Twin and Vengevine had a lot of hope put on their shoulders.The incoming Pro Tour Fate Reforged was going to decide tops and flops of the Modern winds of change.

This chain of events was the near-perfect storm for speculators. Prices of a lot of Modern cards were already low, either because they were oppressed by Pod and U/R Delver decks or because of a seasonal low, and were therefore good speculative targets. The B&R list announcement made all non-U/R Delver and non-Pod cards instantly go up by 20 to 50%.

In my personal case I had already started to stock up on Modern positions in November-December in anticipation of Pro Tour Fate Reforged, and the B&R list announcement simply made me buy additional positions or reinforce some--expectations of high returns were really high.

However, buying at a good price and in the right window is only half of the job. As of today, I have sold most of the major Modern positions I had bet on for this "Modern season" (January to mid-March). If the overall result is comfortably positive, especially since I was holding several of these positions for only two or three months, not all positions were profitable.

Today I want to discuss all of these positions and their result. It's not always easy to sell at the perfect time--selling too early while the trend is still upward or selling too late because a card never caught up are common dilemma every speculator faces sooner or later. Is selling everything into the Pro Tour hype really good? How far was I to optimal selling prices? Was it a good idea to cut my losses so early? These are some of the questions I tried to answer by retrospectively analyzing the results of my specs.

Outcome of My Modern Specs

Let's start right off with the Modern specs I was on. The list below contains speculations that were made specifically for this Modern season with the goal to be terminated mid-march at the latest. The idea was to take advantage of two major events that were supposed to boost Modern demand--Pro Tour Fate Reforged followed by a Modern MOCS season on MTGO. Return to Ravnica block and M14 positions that I bought with redemption in mind are not listed here. Sphinx's Revelation is the only exception as I hadn't bought it last summer but only more recently after the B&R list announcement.

This list also only contains specs that represented 0.5% or more of my bankroll. I didn't take the specs I had only bought a few copies of so the data presented and discussed here are the most relevant for my bankroll.

In accordance with the Pro Tour results and my personal feelings about the evolution of these specs, I sold almost all of these cards between the end of the Pro Tour and this past weekend. As I mentioned, for the vast majority of these cards I think that the best window to sell them was between February and March, after a period of known high demand for Modern cards and before MMA2015 spoilers potentially ruin the party.

Another point I should mention is that because of changes of activity in my day job I'll have to spend less time on my MTGO speculations. Therefore I wanted to sell as much as possible of my Modern specs now so that I don't have to keep track of them in the coming six months and with an uncertain future as to their prices.

Finally there are four cards I haven't sold yet. Bonfire of the Damned, Restoration Angel and Vexing Devil are three specs that haven't benefited from this Modern season and that are not threatened by a reprint in Modern Masters 2015. For these reasons I felt comfortable keeping them even if it means keeping them for several months if needed. Sundering Titan is the only regular spec I'm waiting on as I feel slight additional gains are possible.

For all the other specs here are my selling prices and percentages gains/losses

Of 45 completed specs, 11 (24.5%) ended negative and 34 (75.5%) positive. This numbers are similar to those I obtained with the specs involved in my Nine Months of Portfolio Management Bankroll. The average percentage gain per position is of +33.2%, a very decent number considering many of these specs were kept for a few months only.

Now let dig a little bit deeper with these data and look at them in the light of the price evolution before and after Pro Tour Fate Reforged.

Retrospective Analysis

The Pro Tour Hype

Looking at the price trends now I was wondering how many of my specs got hyped by the B&R list announcement and the following Pro Tour but didn't really deliver. I'm looking at cards that were low at the beginning of January, increased in price and peaked at the very beginning of February and finally lost ground once the Pro Tour passed. Good examples of this include Dark Confidant, Pyromancer Ascension and Living End. The price didn't always drop back for all of these cards to where it was before (Fulminator Mage for example) but the highest price was clearly around the Pro Tour.

With these parameters, I counted 20 cards that followed that pattern, quite a lot in deed. I was able to sell some early enough and with acceptable profits, but I kept others way too long, causing me some losses. It is easy to say it now, but selling all of these during the weekend of the Pro Tour would have been the best play.

Not surprisingly, the vast majority of these cards didn't perform well at the Pro Tour. As expected, selling the cards that didn't meet the expectation players/speculators had for them is the overall best move.

Better After the Pro Tour

19 cards had their price ramped up to the Pro Tour and were actually higher in the following weeks. Some of these 19 cards only had a small increase in price though.

The reason of their success? Speculators may not have see them as obvious as other specs. Goblin Guide and Eidolon of the Great Revel with Burn, Blood Moon, Dismember and Leyline of Sanctity as disruption cards of choice in any Modern environment, or Primeval Titan and Wilt-Leaf Liege as strong contenders in the current metagame are cards that may been under the radar of several speculators.

The key to these positions, as for pretty much any Modern positions, is to acquire them when they hit a low in their cycle. Then, if they are favored by a Pro Tour or any other Modern event or season, you know you may have a trend to ride here. The fact that some speculators or players may have missed them didn't make their price artificially inflated before the Pro Tour. Primeval Titan didn't jump to 35 or 40 Tix after the B&R list changes, it kept its organic growth from a its 20 Tix floor it was on for months. Disappointing at the Pro Tour would have had the dramatic effect we saw on hyped cards anyway.

Sower of Temptation is good recent example to illustrate that. This quite unnoticed faerie gained some traction mid-January from its three-months floor around 2.5 Tix and is now back to its previous high around 8 Tix. I was/am expecting the same trend with Sundering Titan, but if it doesn't happen I won't lose much since the card was not hyped at all.

And For Some, Nothing Happened

These positions were low compared to their previous record high, and were therefore good targets, but remained mostly flat or slowly kept losing value. They were never really incorporated into a Modern deck or the demand was not strong enough to see price increases. Aether Vial, Ajani Vengeant and Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker are in this category.

There's not much to do about these positions. Depending on your buying price and on how long you kept them before selling you will either lose some Tix or make slim profits on these ones. To me, they look like the inevitable casualties of speculations. They are fundamentally different from the hyped cards (for which I have lost Tix too) as they never really have a good opportunity to be sold with decent profit.

Lessons to Learn

Modern speculations are bound to repeat themselves again and again, next season or next Pro Tour. In the light of the diverse fortunes of my specs I see room for improvements.

First thing with cyclical Modern positions--buying when they hit a low. This is always true and always a good option. I would however put on hold the buying machine as long as too many cards from MMA2015 remain unknown. The current Modern season comes to an end and prices start to cycle down once again, but this time around holding your guns is highly recommended. The buying spree should resume next summer.

Fueled by changes from B&R list or not, consider selling any cards that are particularly hyped and would be a miss during a Pro Tour or any major Modern event. Even a small miss, such as Fulminator Mage or Liliana of the Veil that were in several decks but not in the "new" or wining decks this year, is enough to have their price at the highest during the Pro Tour and not after.

Finally, if you are holding positions that haven't made much noise approaching a major event but are seeing play, hold on to them for a few more weeks, as more gains are likely to come.

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux