Is that a loaded question? I have asked this question numerous times. While some may jump to answer, others are more reluctant to comment thus far. Let's start by defining success:

• Lower the barrier to the Modern format--make the cards more accessible (i.e. cheaper).
• Drive interest in the format.

I think the question will ultimately be multi-faceted and rightly so. There are even more variables to consider than just the two points above. So let’s look at a few of those discussions and how it could impact not only each person’s answer but the overall success of these products or the brand of Modern Masters.

There’s Always a Bottom Line

We know as financiers that Wizards of the Coast (and Hasbro) is a business, and they have a bottom line to please shareholders. That has translated into a few things; the changing in block structure and the inclusion of many new supplemental products, including Modern Masters.

Are these changes good for the game? It's debatable, but I would lean towards yes. Though at the same time these changes mean players will be spending more money, financiers included. As financiers we may lose the luxury of a lot of breathing room in between block rotation, and it may well end the slow decline of current Standard Magic cards. In fact, these changes might even make Standard financing much harder than they are now.

Let’s not digress-This is a topic I can expand on in the near future. I just wanted to highlight this point to remind everyone that Wizards is changing, and may be using other means than just one set to pique Modern interest.

Wizards has stated that they will take chances at reprinting some key cards over the course of the year in this new block structure, and have already done so. Perhaps the alleviation of the issues created by Modern will be more spread out rather than just vested into one supplemental product. Though, with this structure they walk a fine line. They may attract more players to the format by lowering prices, but could negate that growth by driving away potential buyers in fear of their cards losing so much value. Time will tell.

The Modern Masters Brand

Now that the set is released we have information in our hands about its initial impact. On the surface it looks like Modern Masters 2015 has been lowering prices across the board, sometimes in drastic fashion.

I took the liberty to highlight the median prices of non-foils below, but cards have been posted on all sorts of outlets (including a vendor like TCGPlayer) well below that point. Some have been selling, others are barely moving even at a reduced price.

Looks great on paper, but didn't Modern Masters have a similar effect?

This historical chart shows that the old set drastically brought down the average card prices as well--for a period of time that is. If you continue to monitor the graph, the prices slowly appreciated over the following years to what we see today.

So, what can we expect? Well, that was before, we’re in the here and now. Conversations abound as to what exactly the “damage” is in the wake of this set release and what that could mean for investors. Should we expect similar growth:

Very valuable info. "@harberg: @MTGCritic @mtgprice email this morning. Retailers can order 3 more cases this week directly from WoTC."

— ChazVMTG (@BoltSnapBolt) May 25, 2015

So we know that there was a lot of product about to be shipped out, and I highlighted those specific numbers in previous articles as have other writers here on QS. This was a tweet sent out, and it highlighted that retailers could order more product directly from WOTC this week.

Let’s break down the math to make some ballpark estimates about how much product is out there right now and how much the new wave of product will introduce to the market. Keep in mind these numbers don’t take into account the triple GP weekend.

(Roughly 85 stores per state (using Event Locator) * 50 states = 4250 stores) * 3 cases = 12,750 cases or 51,000 boxes just on the re-order.

Here's a more national look at the numbers:

• Four cases per store initially (a conservative estimate)=
• Three more cases per store for re-order
• 4250 Stores
• 29,750 cases (for both orders)
• 119,000 total boxes
• One of each mythic in every 5 boxes (23,800 of each mythic)
• One of each rare in every 2.5 boxes (47,600 of each rare)

We almost certainly won't see all of those copies show up in online vendors and TCGPlayer. But that doesn’t mean that a lot of demand for these cards isn’t being satisfied. As I already pointed out, there are already many copies being sold even below TCGMid, and we also know that other variables come into play with such a price drop.

Tarmogoyf is really the ubiquitous format-defining staple, with others like Cryptic Command and Daybreak Coronet trailing behind it. So some cards may not reach their previous prices for a very long time, if ever.

So on the premise that these sets generate additional supply, they are a success I think (at least for now). I think that Wizards rectified their mistake in creating a much larger print run than last time, and I think the creation of such a high variance pack was deliberate, to keep boxes regularly circulated rather than tied up in the hands of heavy investors and distributors.

Sure the “feel bads” of opening that Comet Storm or Hellkite Charger are really awful; but maybe their intent is having that “lottery ticket” effect so normal players could readily spend 9.99 on the product and have a shot at getting a solid Modern-playable mythic.

Tarmogoyf

Time Spiral Remastered

$6.5

See Trader Tools

9%

Spread

$7.1

See Trader Tools

Click to load historical prices.

Though one has to question, if they really did care about everyone playing Modern, why make a card like Tarmogoyf a mythic? Why even make the set draftable as opposed to a box set that comes with X reprints at a time.

Is it because that type of product wouldn’t see the light of day, that investors would purchase up copies so fast? Why would Wizards really care, since selling sealed product makes them money regardless, they don’t make money off X person buying from Y vendor/person. Because at the end of the day, they need an incentive to sell the product, something to chase after. So why not let the “golden ticket” be Tarmogoyf? Since that’s what really this all boils down to anyway.

Everyone has been living with the current prices. They grumble and moan (much like with Legacy) but they just can’t accept the fact that Tarmogoyf is expensive! You can’t have it both ways, every card can’t be cheap either. It’s just not good for the long-term health of the game. Remember Chronicles?

If it’s good for Standard, why can’t it be good for Modern? Maybe branding Modern as an eternal format really isn’t the way to go. Maybe just start treating it like “Super Standard”, and people wouldn’t have as much an issue with it.

Now don’t get me wrong, having these drastic price decreases will help the format undoubtedly, but will it really bring in a mass exodus of players as the first Modern Masters did? Maybe the issue isn’t with the card prices at all, but rather the format itself. A lot of people think it’s healthy, but many others think it’s just a worse version of Legacy.

I could see their argument when Serum Visions is the best deck manipulation spell. Though that’s a topic for another time.

Looking to the Future

Doug Linn highlighted some important problems with the new release here. Now, it may not be as widespread as it seems, but this shouldn’t be an issue regardless. Weird printing and oddity boxes do occur in every set.

The packaging, on the other hand, is a bit egregious when charging $9.99 per pack. This could very well limit the growth of this product down the line, which may not mimic the same trends of Modern Masters (now averaging around $325 two years later). Players may forego purchasing out-of-print boxes to crack open for draft if the very cards aren't even packaged in a way to prevent damage. Don’t put experimental packaging on $9.99 boosters next time, Wizards, please!

So what does this all mean? Well, to get back to my original point: Do you think this set will be successful? It looks likely that this may well become a bi-yearly release to keep interest in the format and put staple cards in more players hands.

• The player in me welcomes the new brand of Modern Masters and what it can potentially do.
• The financier in me is much more skeptical. Isn’t this just selling to their bottom line and promoting purchasing rather than the format?

It’s an inner conflict, but what I can expect is that for a brief amount of time Modern Masters really can slash prices drastically, and that’s a good thing on all fronts. Gives us a chance at some profits as financiers, and cheaper copies to play with at the same time.

Some of the crude numbers make me believe that this product is far-and-away in higher supply than the first iteration, and it could very well damper prices on most cards for a long time, and others at least a little longer than before (mainly Cryptic Command, Tarmogoyf and Ignoble Hierarch). Hey, we are almost at the nine-day breaking point for Tarmogoyf aren’t we? That’s a good sign!

So, that’s all for today, just some topics I wanted to reiterate here for everyone about this product line that Wizards will probably stick with for a while. Do you think it’s successful? Should they approach it differently? I’d love to hear everyone’s thoughts.

Until next time!

-Chaz