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The Projected Value of Zendikar Expeditions

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WotC dropped a bomb at PAX this year, announcing that 25 full-art foil lands will be randomly inserted into booster packs at about the rate of foil mythics. These lands will be a new allied land-cycle with basic-land types, all ten fetchlands, and all ten dual lands.

Expeditions

Some players are wondering what they'll have to do to acquire this new hotness, while others will be excited to dump any that they acquire for fat stacks. In either case, people want to know what these bad boys will be worth. Mythic foils come at a rate of about one per case, so even with expeditions coming "a little more frequently than a premium foil Battle for Zendikar mythic rare", that's still not a lot of supply. I assume this to mean two or maybe three per case, but even there you're looking at two shots in a 1/25 to hit the particular land that you want, with most players considering the new cycle to be whammies.

SCG will not be pre-ordering these cards, so there isn't a lot of data to work with. There are some completed eBay listings, though curiously they're all from the same seller with sub-1000 feedback in the Czech Republic. They were also all buy it now listings rather than auctions, so it's hard to say at this point what a good price point would be. These listings have shown Steam Vents and Arid Mesa for $150+ and the new cycle for $70+, but again, these prices are suspect.

If you're a QS Insider, Mike Lanigan did some analysis to help predict the starting prices for these amazing new lands.  Check it out here.

What I can say for sure is that if you open one early you'll obviously want to value it very highly. Scalding Tarn will be the most sought-after of the lot, though on week one I wouldn't value any fetch or Ravnica dual under $100 or any new dual under $50. It will be interesting to see how popular Battle for Zendikar is as a set compared to Khans of Tarkir, and if non-land cards from the set can retain any value. What I can say to a certainty is that you'll see the entire set devalue before you see price decreases on expeditions, unless of course they turn out to be a lot more common than projected- though this is very unlikely.

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Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

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