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Insider: MTG Stock Watch 3/29/15

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Welcome back readers! This article shifted a week on account of prior work obligations, but it's one of my favorite series to write (predominantly because it's pretty formulaic, but also because it forces me to look at cards outside of my normal focus).

Penny Stocks

1. Savor the Moment (+148.4%) - We had a lot of chatter on our forums this week and it seems to have caught on. This is one of the very few “take an extra turn” cards available in Tiny Leaders (with the others being Lighthouse Chronologist, Sage of Hours, Second Chance, Stitch in Time, Time Sieve, and Time Walk).

Of those options, only Time Walk requires less starting requirements (Chronologist you have to sink a lot of mana into, Second Chance you have to have 5 or less life, Stitch in Time could give you nothing and Sage of Hours requires counters on him).

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                        </div> savor the moment

2. Surrak, the Hunt Caller (+146.3%) - My pick for most underappreciated regular rare in Dragons of Tarkir, it's no surprise he had a big jump. At worst he’s a 5/4 for four mana that adds two green devotion. At best he's a 5/4 haste beatstick on turn three that gives one creature per turn that you play after him haste.

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                        </div> Surrak, the Hunt Caller

3. Dromoka's Command (+36.8%) - This is one of the commands getting the most hype coming out of the SCG invitational on account of the strength of G/W/x (usually black) and it's quite often a two-mana two-for-one.

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                        </div> Dromoka's Command

4. Sidisi, Undead Vizier (+36.5%) - Another card that owes its bump to the SCG Invitational, this card is an EDH all star and the ability to demonic tutor in Standard is nothing to scoff at. When Diabolic Tutor was last legal it didn't see a whole lot of play...but you add one colorless mana to it, make it 4/6 creature and voila, success!

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                        </div> sidisi

5. Obelisk of Urd (+21.1%) - This one likely comes off the fact that with a Standard that's almost the maximum size card pool (after Origins we'll have the largest card pool we can have) there's often a lot of tribal synergies available and an anthem effect that can be cast cheaply and provides a large pump is a huge boon for this style of deck. I imagine the most common creature types chosen will be goblin and warrior for the next couple months.

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                        </div> obelisk of urd

Blue Chip Stocks

1. Tarmogoyf (-4.61%) - This one is no surprise. With MM2015 impending, a larger expected print run, and Tarmogoyf being reprinted his price will likely continue to decline for the next few months (until MM2015 supplies have been opened and all new copies of Tarmogoyf are basically accounted for).

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                        </div> goyf

2. Jace, the Mind Sculptor (+2.06%) - This one may be due to some speculators hoping/praying that he'll be unbanned in Modern. While I don't know if he'd warp the format too much (with no free counterspells to protect him, you can't really jam him until turn five or so and plenty of decks can win before then), I think he'd be interesting to try out in the format. However, the fact that he's still over $90 and is only legal in EDH, Vintage, and Legacy means that an unbanning would cause him to skyrocket (my guess would be $300) and I really don't think WoTC wants any Modern cards that high.

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                        </div> jace

3. Dark Confidant (-1.91%) - Poor Bob, he still continues his downward trend. Despite the elimination of Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time in Modern, the shift in the metagame towards Siege Rhino-style Junk decks (i.e. midrange decks with higher curves) seems to be pushing Bob out of the way. My friend (an avid Junk midrange player for the past year) has replaced Bob with Courser of Kruphix and found it to be a pretty solid swap. Rather than lose life, you gain it, and while you don’t always get a card per turn the fact that Courser falls out of bolt range is a pretty big benefit.

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                        </div> bob

4. Underground Sea (+1.48%) - We’re beginning to see a gradual shift back towards Esper Stoneblade (or Deathblade decks) which means Underground Sea will begin to shift upward as Volcanic Island likely starts to shift back downward. The Legacy metagame is usually slower to changes (compared to Standard) and even when you do get a major shift it’s typically there to stay (until we see a banning or unbanning).

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                        </div> sea

5. Savannah (-0.86%) - While there’s been rumors of a Bantblade deck starting to gain traction (Knight of the Reliquary is just a really powerful “fair” card and couples well with Stoneforge Mystic), it’s not really showing up in SCG Top 8s yet.

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                        </div> savannah

Opportunities

This week’s opportunities focus on Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged cards. While I normally don’t like to target Standard cards, with the release of Dragons of Tarkir this past weekend we can expect a lot fewer cards from these sets to be added to the overall supply moving forward (though I am aware that the draft structure for Dragons includes one Fate Reforged pack in the third spot).

As you all know a large majority of the newest Dragons of Tarkir cards will begin to drop in value in the next month as more product is opened and the supply skyrockets. So now is the ideal time to unload any Dragons of Tarkir cards you aren’t currently using and as many people are weary of buying cards they expect to decrease in value they often seem far less concerned about trading for them…so if you can’t sell them at least trade for stable/good speculation targets from Khans/FRF.

    1. Siege Rhino - I realize he’s not at his lowest (currently sitting at around $7), but this card is dominating Standard and even has a home in Modern. He’ll be around for another year and a halfish and it’s unlikely he’ll be outclassed anytime soon. It’s important to note that with the fetchlands in Khans, pack cracking likely met an all-time high and the supply of these is massive (luckily so is the demand).
    2. Clever Impersonator - Being mythic this guy has a much higher ceiling then regular rares. Again, he’s in Khans so there are still a lot of them in the supply, however he’s currently sitting at around $3 (with some copies available for closer to $2). Given the retail price on the bulk mythics is still usually $0.75-$1.00 he doesn’t have much more room to drop, but is a casual all star. I plan on starting to pick these up aggressively in the coming months.
    3. Bloodsoaked Champion - He hasn’t really found much of a home in Standard yet, but creatures that can return from the graveyard almost always find a home somewhere (granted it’s better when they return for free, but that’s usually the sign of a mythic rare). Gravecrawler once sat at $3.50 and now he’s over $6, Bloodghast was $3 and now he’s almost $11.
    4. Tasigur, the Golden Fang - He’s currently selling retail for slightly under $8 and up until about a week or so ago was buylisting for $7 (it’s now down to more like $5). He is a very efficient beater with a card advantage engine built in, in colors that rarely get it (B/G….not blue obviously, blue has tons of card advantage).
    5. Temporal Tresspass - Every card that says “take an extra turn” deserves more than a cursory review. It’s a mythic in a much less opened set that has delve (which has proven to be an insanely powerful ability). Its biggest downfall is the “exile itself clause"--unless you count the stupid high 11 CMC. However, you can now pick them up for under $1.50, it’s very close to “bulk” mythic status.

6 thoughts on “Insider: MTG Stock Watch 3/29/15

  1. Siege Rhino et al don’t have “a year and a halfish” left in Standard but rather less than a year. Khans and Fate will rotate out with the introduction of the large Spring set due March/April 2016 as per the new block structure.

    1. You are correct…their legality is in fact shorter than I was thinking…I will make sure to verify these dates before submitting next time.

  2. So I’m coming from a Legacy perspective here, but Jace has gone up due to more grindiness in the format. Shardless BUG is coming back in a big way and they play 1-2. Also, Miracles is still the dominant legacy deck and they play 2-4.

    Shardless plus BUG delver(also on the increase) decks alone, I believe, help explain U sea’s price increase. Esper stoneblade and Deathblade are actually not very well positioned right now and Jeskai is probably just better with REB being so good. This in turn hurts Deathblade because of Blood moon. While Thoughtseize and lingering souls remain lackluster for esper.

    1. That’s what I would have thought originally, but looking over a lot of the BUG decks are running at most 1-2 of him and usually it’s closer to 0-1. It’s possible that’s the reason, but looking over how many copies have shown up in the top 8’s recently it’s not a lot…

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