So I hear there is a new set coming out in the next couple weeks.

With new sets comes new opportunities for profit and growth, but how do we narrow down our prospects? There's the option of just following the obvious historical trends for middle sets, rares, mythic rares, and all-star uncommons. But we ultimately know that the underlying motivator for card prices is player use and demand.

Initial Hype

Spoiler season is the ultimate hype machine, pushing most prices much higher than the cards are likely to settle. Fate Reforged has obvious hype-cards like Ugin, the Spirit Dragon and Monastery Mentor. These cards are almost certain to go down upon release, but we're generally looking for cards going the other direction.

One of the best examples of the hype machine running away with a card in recent years is Jace, Architect of Thought and his $50 price tag shortly after release. How the mighty have fallen.

Solid Like a Rock

Hype and well wishes can only sustain prices for so long, so we're forced to make connections in search of that diamond in the rough.

With each set, the first place I look for prospects is in the cards passed over by the hype machine. Some cards just don't seem as exciting on first pass. New mechanics are often hard to understand in the abstract without proper playtesting, and proper playtesting is not something most groups are capable of conducting.

Great semi-recent examples of cards that players simply didn't understand before release include Huntmaster of the Fells // Ravager of the Fells, Bonfire of the Damned, and Entreat the Angels. After Innistrad's lack of (initially) relevant flip cards, Huntmaster just didn't catch the imagination of the public and was completely ignored. The miracle ability was just unprecedented before release, so we had no frame of reference to evaluate these cards.

Fate Reforged exists in a block and format that relies heavily on synergies, so the cards that have the greatest chance to rise are going to be cards that have strong interactions with existing cards.

Whisperwood Elemental is a card that seems like a slam dunk to me. This card has already received a ton of speculation hype because $5.99 just seems too low for a mythic rare with so many abilities. There's a small laundry list of qualifications that make this card seem like an all-star:

• Being mono-colored opens it up to appearing in a larger variety of decks
• Two green mana symbols makes it a strong candidate for devotion strategies
• The card provides "virtual card draw" every turn
• Four toughness dodges Lightning Strike and Anger of the Gods
• The second ability synergizes well with devotion strategies and their propensity for dumping creatures on the board

Manifest is an ability, much like flip cards or miracles, that we don't yet have a great understanding of. I'm fairly sure that as players get a chance to play with manifest, it's going to be obvious how much more powerful than morph it really is.

Torrent Elemental is another card that's already experiencing preorder buyouts, and for good reason. At $1.99, this card is a very low risk spec' target with a pretty high upside.

Torrent Elemental pairs extremely well with existing delve strategies and presents itself as a resilient finisher that has the ability to attack unimpeded. The prevalence of Murderous Cut, Treasure Cruise, and Dig Through Time give Torrent Elemental a slew of companions that ensure it will have little problem finding its way to exile.

Soulflayer is a card that I keep coming back to again and again.

Soulflayer casts out a lot of threads with it's checklist of desired abilities. Simply synergizing well with Torrent Elemental might be enough all on it's own, but the bubbling up of Sidisi, Brood Tyrant strategies to the surface or Standard is likely to keep Soulflayer in contention for heavy standard play for the remainder of the block.

The biggest key will be what cards can come along for the ride to grant him the assortment of desired abilities. Cards like Erebos, God of the Dead and Pharika, God of Affliction seem like a great place to start because delving redundant copies away grants Soulflayer indestructibility. He also adds two black to the devotion count, meaning both of these gods will be that much closer to taking physical form.

Soulflayer comes with a preorder price tag of $2.99 and a good chance he dips right after release. That will be a great time to pick up a couple playsets.

Prospecting on Existing Cards

With a new set's release, there're a lot of places to find value outside of those new boosters. Some cards and strategies were just one friend away from getting their day in the sun. The great thing about prospecting on existing cards is that price has probably already bottomed out and many copies of the cards have already left circulation or found their way into dollar boxes.

When existing cards spike, its usually the mythics that spike the hardest. These cards have a less elastic supply/demand relationship so their prices rarely climb reasonably. Two cards I already mentioned above that fit this mold are Erebos and Pharika, but these aren't the only ones on the cusp of greatness. Additionally, Gods are a solid pickup because they've probably hit bottom and carry tremendous casual appeal.

I'm a big fan of Purphoros, God of the Forge. He already pairs wells with cards like Hordeling Outburst that put multiple creatures into play at once, but there's a new card that brings something just a little spicy to the table: Flamewake Phoenix. Combined with Ashcloud Phoenix, we see a recurring pair of creatures that will trigger Purphoros time and time again . And if they don't, you just fly over for the win.

Mono red devotion was a strategy that was reasonably powerful before Boros Reckoner and Chandra's Phoenix rotated out, but I think this new Phoenix revitalizes that strategy while giving it a new angle of attack.

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx is another card that's been just a couple cards short of viability. Theros block, by design, was very short on devotion enablers and Khans of Tarkir's multicolor theme sure didn't help matters. With Fate Reforged, we're seeing a number of cards that enable devotion, while hopefully pushing the various iterations of this strategy back up proverbial ladder.

Another strategy we can expect to see more of in the upcoming Standard format is tokens. Between Monastery Mentor, Mardu Strike Leader, and existing token producers, we're likely to see a format that is chalked full of tokens. This is likely to trigger the format's immune system response and cause a rise in the usage of Doomwake Giant and Drown in Sorrow;.

Fully expect these cards to continue creeping up slowly as more and more decks resort to these defenses.

This last card might be going a little deep, but I think there's a good chance we finally see Spear of Heliod in action. The card simultaneously defends your tokens against Doomwake Giant while triggering prowess effects. With the density of prowess creatures increasing, it's likely that we can can expect decks like Jeskai Tokens to drop a color to increase speed and consistency and Spear of Heliod can slot easily into that role .

And at 50¢, you don't have to commit much to catch this potential.

Wrapup

Capitalizing on new sets provides great opportunities, but all opportunities come with risk. As always, put your money where you're likely to get the best return for you. If you're a "player first" investor, always assign resources to prospects that you can still play with if they go bust.

Fate Reforged on the whole doesn't strike me as a high-value set after release, so there's a good chance that it suffers a similar fate to Born of the Gods in terms of long term pricing. The standout cards are likely to stand higher and the last man to sell is going to get the best profits, much like we saw with Courser of Kruphix in a set where little else existed to encourage people to crack those packs.