Comments on: NPH Guide to Rares https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Tue, 24 May 2011 18:09:32 +0000 hourly 1 By: Corbin Hosler https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-16340 Tue, 24 May 2011 18:09:32 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-16340 In reply to balduvian horde.

Not that I should really even bother responding to this, but there is a finance team for a reason.
Compare this situation.
Non-Insider – Sees one person (this article or any other site with only 1-2 guys) say Spellskite is $2. Doesn't buy in. Loses potential profit.
Insider – Has an entire team of writers, many of whom suggested picking up Spellskite. For example, I wrote on May 12 (before the price jump) – "I’ve been toting Spellskite since it was spoiled. The card is nuts, in more than just Splinter Twin combo. Get in on these ASAP." There is a reason why the team concept works – With enough good financial minds together, you don't miss out on something like this that can slip past one individual.
I haven't seen one Insider complain about lost profit on Spellskites (the reaction has been quite the opposite).

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By: balduvian horde https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-16330 Tue, 24 May 2011 09:49:59 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-16330 "Spellskite – $2

The price is right"

lulz i really wanna spend $$ to sign up now…

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By: @adamzak https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15836 Mon, 16 May 2011 22:24:13 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15836 @Corbin

Why don't you move some of the old price prediction articles out of insider and into free. They're no longer of any exclusive value to insiders, and can help show what you guys provide. Just keep the timeless trading secrets articles wrapped up ;).

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By: @adamzak https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15835 Mon, 16 May 2011 22:22:08 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15835 In reply to Corbin Hosler.

"No one is 100% correct all the time, but our finance writers as a whole are consistently profitable."

Yes, and your writers frequently revisit predictions and grade their accuracy, so we can see how things went, why they went, and if they didn't, what went wrong.

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By: @adamzak https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15834 Mon, 16 May 2011 22:19:55 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15834 In reply to Corbin Hosler.

No lies… he did. Pretty sure you also told us when to dump them too.

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By: Prophylaxis https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15505 Wed, 11 May 2011 05:00:16 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15505 Yes! Someone finally agrees with me on Praetor's Grasp!

Great financial review, by the way. It works; it's a great read and convinces me to re-subscribe. Thanks!

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By: OMNI https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15442 Mon, 09 May 2011 18:40:18 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15442 Can you also share some predictions that went bad? And/or REALLY bad? I would be more interested in that (I'm serious!).

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By: Former Insider https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15435 Mon, 09 May 2011 16:36:41 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15435 QS is looking good now. Unfortunately I was not impressed in the first few months of Insider and canceled my subscription. Oh well. From what I hear about the forums, you guys are doing much better.

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By: Corbin Hosler https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15434 Mon, 09 May 2011 16:31:38 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15434 @Danny No one is 100% correct all the time, but our finance writers as a whole are consistently profitable. I don't recommend immediately jumping into buy and sells if you're really low on funds, because there are hidden costs associated with dealing in that side of speculating (shipping, time, hassle, etc).

You'll find that even if you buy into a card and it spikes 20% you'll have not always made much profit, and if you're low on funds to start its hard to make enough to justify your time spent. On the other hand, the tips on here also apply to trading (and some of the writers focus exclusively on trading techniques) which is the best place to start when you're just getting into the game. For instance, while you may not have had $100 to invest into Mystics at the time, you could easily have picked them up in trading and be sitting on a lot of cash now.

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By: Dynamite Danny https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15392 Sun, 08 May 2011 17:56:05 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15392 I for one appreciate this, and will definitely subscribe once I have the cash, one question though, how accurate are the predictions, telling me that stoneforge went up isn't much I need more examples, Im asking because Im considering dropping a ton of cash on the metamorphs and Im in the position where I cant regenerate the lost cash if it doesn't pay out.

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By: Kell https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15377 Sun, 08 May 2011 07:26:04 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15377 I read it, but it didn't contain anything new to me.

This level of passive analysis isn't anything that anyone familiar with the metagame, and 20 minutes on TCGplayer couldn't accomplish. If this is what I can expect from an insider article, I suppose I'll stay free.

However, this card buy alert program intrigues me. What exactly is it? Some kind of bot that watches ebay and store price fluctuations and notifies me when a spike first starts? A program like that might be worth the investment.

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By: Sven https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15336 Sat, 07 May 2011 12:06:59 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15336 In reply to @JoshJMTG.

How are the e-mail alerts for cards working? Where can I find the information about that?
Thx

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By: @JoshJMTG https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15317 Sat, 07 May 2011 00:28:17 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15317 In reply to S1AL.

Here's a very specific prediction I made in the Insider forum, paired with the BlackLotusProject graph for the same card.
http://i.imgur.com/t37ou.png

I'm not a Finance writer, but I do hop in the Insider finance forums quite a bit.

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By: @JoshJMTG https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15316 Sat, 07 May 2011 00:16:46 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15316 In reply to S1AL.

The entire point of Insider is finance, rather than strategy. That's why all the strategy articles are on the Free side of this site and the vast majority of finance articles are on Insider.

If you'd bought Candelabra of Tawnos when they sent out the Insider e-mail alert for the card, you'd have made something like $125. Each.

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By: S1AL https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15313 Fri, 06 May 2011 22:46:44 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15313 Well, I obviously can't go back and check old articles, which is why I'm asking =P. Unless your older articles are publicly available.

And yes, I picked up 20 Mystics when they were $2.00-2.50, and Tezz I held until he jumped up, so that's the information that interests me.

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By: Corbin Hosler https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15312 Fri, 06 May 2011 22:38:19 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15312 In reply to S1AL.

How about Stoneforge Mystic and Tezzeret? Just from my own work, I called Mystic when it was $6 and Tezz when it was $20. These type of calls are commonly made on here, far in advance of when the rest of the MTG world catches on. More recently, I called picking up Inferno Titan on Feb. 28, and it has more than doubled in price since then.
I get all my prices from BlackLotusProject.com, which tracks Ebay and MOTL prices in graphical form, and most of the writers here do the same.

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By: S1AL https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15311 Fri, 06 May 2011 22:18:15 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15311 Alright, those are fairs answers. So, some more specific ones:

Where are prices pulled from?
Can you give me some specific examples of predictions that worked out well, perhaps ones that nobody else saw coming?
I am a bit concerned by some of the calls… several of the ones in this article are like "OMG WOW," but with a $4-6 price tag. Is that just the writer's style, or an unwillingness to go out on a limb?

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By: @adamzak https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15310 Fri, 06 May 2011 21:24:58 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15310 In reply to S1AL.

The email notifications easily make me enough to cover the cost. Just getting the tip direct to my inbox a few hours before it hits mainstream lets me snag up a few ebay auctions before the masses catch wind.

So really… if you subscribe you'll be competing with me. You know what, this site's a waste of money. Stick with CFB. It's all a scam!

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By: Corbin Hosler https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15309 Fri, 06 May 2011 21:04:02 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15309 @S1AL – I can understand your hesitation, but keep in mind this article is one of 8-10 financial pieces that run every week, all of which will easily make you back more than what you pay in a subscription. The other sites you mentioned have 1-2 articles a week max regarding finance, and they have very good writers behind them. But the financial world of Magic is much more than one or two people can cover in full detail. There's so many levels of traders, from the casual FNM trader to the hardcore trader at a GP, that it just isn't possible for a site without a dedicated team to cover it all. That, and, as Adam said, the forums and e-mail tips from the QS team are very helpful and more service than you get from any other site on the internet.
My two cents.

As for the predictions, they are spot-on. I'll be picking up all the Metamorphs I can in the first week, because as soon as it finds its way into a Top 8 deck (and it will), the price is going to spike. After Mystic leaves Standard, this card becomes any additional Swords you need to guarantee you don't get too far behind in the Swordfighting, not to mention the Titans it can copy.

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By: S1AL https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/05/nph-guide-to-rares/#comment-15307 Fri, 06 May 2011 20:15:05 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=13569#comment-15307 I'm unconvinced that a subscription to this site is worth it… let me explain: Starcity was $30. For a year. CFB is FREE. This is way more expensive and has pretty much the exact same content. Well, minus all of the strategy articles from tier-1 pros. Am I missing something?

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