Comments on: Insider: Grading My Avacyn Restored Predictions

By: @Chosler88

@Chosler88 — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 06:38:14 +0000

To follow up on this, it looks like Bonfire is being played in Pod sideboards, likely for the mirror.

By: @Chosler88

@Chosler88 — Tue, 19 Jun 2012 15:30:59 +0000

@knx I don't know much about MODO, nor have I ever offered or promised any advice on how to get into it. I'm sorry I can't help you more there, it's simply not a market I know or have the time to learn well enough to offer advice on. What I do know very well is the paper market, and I know our forums are very helpful when it comes to MODO specs.

@Gervinho Good idea, I'll make sure to do that next time.

@John & Steve Thanks! Watching "financial" writers a while back talk about how awesome their calls were without mentioning the negative ones is why I started both this series and the prediction tracker in the first place. I feel that accountability in this area is hugely important, since people spend their hard-earned money on your suggestions, so I'm glad to see it come across well. I know Chas agrees with me, and he's very good about this as well.

By: JasonAlt

JasonAlt — Tue, 19 Jun 2012 04:42:47 +0000

In reply to John. Meanwhile Entreat is played in Legacy and Bonfire is not.

By: John

John — Mon, 18 Jun 2012 03:51:40 +0000

Nice read Corbin. It is very refreshing to see a financial writer own up to his mistakes. Thats why you and Chas Andres are my two favorite financial writers.
I agreed with a lot of your calls except for Entreat. I was unimpressed with the card and instead went in with Bonfires at 7.00. I think that card is just insane at the Miracle cost and I felt it had potential in the older formats, where Entreat doesn't.

By: knx

knx — Sat, 16 Jun 2012 19:11:40 +0000

but i made a lot of losses also, for instance i'm still sitting on 47 Visions from beyond and 31 champion of the parish (allthough these still are the same price as when i purchased them); the Skaab Ruinator fiasco cost me 52 tix so far :(…

My lesson learned : do NOT follow the guidelines for paper cards into the online environment. Almost all paper cards are worth a lot more then their online copies, and you can not count on doing good business with someone who really needs a card cause they can be purchased anywhere so easy.
So it's very important to me to know in advance if a card is gonna rocket online, like primeval titan and the swords…
Perhaps now you understand my sadness about the lack of tips in this direction (and most of them are found on the forum but those are not as trustworthy to me because anyone can give tips there).

By: knx

knx — Sat, 16 Jun 2012 19:10:23 +0000

Well, when i started using this site i just took over all information and tips i got and bought the cards online… but modern especially and standard also doesn't seem to follow the same price changes as in the real card world. This costed me a lot of tix (aka dollars/euros)… i was hoping, like everyone else, to break at least even between the subscription fee and the profit we make, but so far i haven't been able to take advantage of the articles on this site._The only card i made good money of so far was Tooth and nail (28 tix won on 13 copies)

By: @thepricesignal

@thepricesignal — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 18:44:08 +0000

Generally speaking, card recommendations are a good starting point for evaluating the speculative potential for cards on modo. However, if the market understands a cards fundamental value, then most set reviews are a bad guide for speculating on digital objects because most will fall in price over time due to the amount of supply created by 24 hour drafting. This is even more true of rares and uncommons as these cards are worth so much less compared to their cardboard counter parts.

However, picking out under valued cards like Consecrated Sphinx can still net you nice profits though, which was sub 3 tix and widely available after release. Also, junk or near junk rares that are under valued by the market can be profitable if something changes to make them playable in Standard. Set reviews can be useful in mining this area of speculation.

By: Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund Ausfresser — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 16:30:59 +0000

I don't use MTGO, but I do feel this is an untapped market in the realm of MTG FInance writing. I agree with stric9 that it would be really interesting to hear how MTGO and paper Magic differ financially. In theory, cards used more often should still be more valuable, right? Especially with Standard.

By: stric9

stric9 — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 15:21:52 +0000

In reply to knx. Point taken. If you feel like you've been promised content on something specific then I can understand your frustration. You also point out that I don't understand MTGO which is fine. Can you explain how speculation for MTGO would be different than for MTG paper though? Conceptually, I would think that you'd still be going after the same cards so I honestly don't understand how the speculation doesn't translate. Please elaborate.

By: knx

knx — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 13:31:16 +0000

"did you need specifics" ??? Of course, why else bother reading this articles and pay for it ?
It's obvious you don't care about online otherwise you wouldn't make the assumption we could follow the guidelines for the real card environment; as I stated with 2 examples there are a lot of differences.
Perhaps it's not this writer but several promised during the past 2 months to take care of the online environment but nothing happens, and that is just really irritating for a paying consumer !

By: Steve Mock

Steve Mock — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 03:45:52 +0000

I don’t care about mtgo and enjoy reading Corbin’s articles. So, he didn’t tell you what tics to buy at? Did you need specfics that badly? Why not use his speculation as your jumping off point? Or don’t expect someone to write on mtgo when that’s not what they do.

By: @gedforrest

@gedforrest — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 14:02:01 +0000

Avacyn Restored was the first set I've ever speculated on during prerelease/spoiler season, and I bought in on Bonfire of the Damned for a sizeable amount of cash when they were $6.50 a piece. Feeling pretty smart about that one right now.
Also traded for a tonne of Restoration Angels at $4 on prerelease weekend, that turned out well.
Things I called poorly; Reforge The Soul. I still think this card has mega potential if the right supporting mechanics get printed for the R/x guilds (assuming they're back) in RTR, but we'll see.

By: knx

knx — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 12:56:52 +0000

Once again not a word about the online world… greatly disappointed about that and seriously asking myself why I still pay for this…
Cavern of souls : 6 tic, Vexing devil : 1 tic…
So your predictions are worthless in the online environment, wich means they are worthless to a lot of your readers.
Do we really ask that much ?
Or just admit you don't care about mtgo so at least we don't get disappointed anymore !

By: @gervinho_

@gervinho_ — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 11:54:40 +0000

Can you maybe put italics [i],[/i] in between the ''Then: ____ '' part? It is a bit easier to read what you have written before by quoting it & putting it into italics 🙂 Thanks!