I would wait until the pre-release events start, that’s the point when supply should be highest, and at that point I imagine it will be a good pickup.

That makes sense… the titans being an exception then i suppose, or cards like phantasmal image; is it a good idea btw to pick up phantasmal images online atm (you can get 3 for 4 tic), will they go up again when modern season starts or when people realize they have more use then just standard ?

They’re opened less for many reasons. First of all, a set composed of many reprints does not bring out a ton of players. Secondly, because it is so close to rotation, there are typically only a few cards that impact the format, and even that won’t be for long due to rotation, so it is drafted way less than something as hugely popular as Innistrad or Ravnica.

Think about M13, there’s so few impactful cards from the set, it makes no sense for people to open en masse, and the lack of an overall theme means it’s not selling near as much as a flagship set like RtR.

As for not accounting it in my original analysis, it’s a trend I noticed back in M12 but didn’t full consider. Mistakes happen and I’m not perfect, but I do my best to refine my predictions for each set, and I’ve been pleased overall with how I’ve done over the last few years.

Thanks again for the feedback

I found that explanation weird for 2 reasons : i never heard of a rule saying core sets are opened less then other sets (i would expect the opposite due to it having a bigger audience) and it would be strange that someone who writes these articles a lot of the time would forget such an important issue.

There will certainly be a ton of rares hit the market, that’s true. On the other, these prices actually cannot go any lower, since they are priced at bulk (or very near-bulk) right now. If Martial Law or Blessing do anything in the first few weeks they’re going to triple or more in price, and the worst-case scenario is you picked up a card as a throw-in that does nothing.

Pack Rat is much more of a long-term call, so I wouldn’t expect much anytime soon from it.

Remember, Innistrad was opened a ton too, and cards like Parallel Lives are still real money. And, in terms of drafting, there will actually be less RtR drafted than Innistrad (as a percentage of the block). The massive popularity of RtR isn’t factored into that, of course, but Innistrad was incredibly popular as well, so we’ll see.

I do think it’s something you play in multiples, but I it’s probably 2-3, not a 4-of, which makes a big difference if it becomes a tier-1 deck card.

I think Populate is going to be a really popular casual mechanic, and Trostani seems like the real deal here, especially for Commander. I don’t see her making really big waves in Constructed, but she should be $5-10 forever due to the casual appeal.

What’s the issue with my Thragtusk explanation? I explained the thought process I took to the card, and identified the flaw in that process that led to an incorrect result.

Also, for the record, I pegged it as 7-10 and the card is $10.94 on TCGPlayer. SCG prices are out of step with the market more than usual here, otherwise it would look a lot better if, say, they had the card at $12.

This is actually something we’ve been talking about, and you can expect to see it coming in the future.

These cards that are bulk right now could remain bulk because of their lack of competitive play, and the number on the market being this set will be opened so much in the next 3 months?

Also, Grave Betrayal seems cheap enough to be worth picking up a few as a long term Commander spec (think Debtors’ Knell/Grave Pact combined in one).

What are your thoughts on Trostani? Her preorder price on SCG has moved from 3.99 -> 5.99 -> 7.99 -> 9.99 in the last several days.

I would rather see someone else of the QS-crew evaluate your primercalls in the future, cause you tend to undercriticize yourself. When I’m losing money on your calls, I’d rather have you be honest about it (unlike the thragtusk-explanation).