Comments on: Insider: Financial Opportunities of the Scars Block Rotation, Part 1 https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/10/the-financial-opportunities-of-the-scars-block-rotation-part-1-of-2/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Tue, 18 Jan 2022 02:54:38 +0000 hourly 1 By: Ryan Abcede https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/10/the-financial-opportunities-of-the-scars-block-rotation-part-1-of-2/#comment-36094 Wed, 03 Oct 2012 14:10:16 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=32135#comment-36094 @Jared I will agree that Contagion Engine is a weaker pick and could stay stagnant. I may be accessing it wrong and maybe it isn’t appealing enough to casual players. We’ll see on that one. Sunblast is a card I would not go heavy into. But I do think the Wal-Mart promo is a good pick up. I just did a quick eBay search on them and they are going for $5+. I didn’t think they were this high already. Use this to your advantage using SCGs price. It is probably easier to find them in store than in binders though. You have the right idea trying to get any discount you can from a person reminding them they are rotating.

@Gervaise Having a list of “always wants” seems like a good idea. I have a mental checklist of cards that ready for price increases. Stuff like Rite of Replication. But having an actual list may be good to have on a smart phone. When looking through small binders I get every card I want, but with big binders or multiple binders I start to tunnel vision and sometimes miss things. Having this list would definitely help that.

@tragic In my opinion, Mimic Vat will be like Basilisk Collar or better. Basilisk Collar isnt even a Commander staple. I am actually surprised it is so high myself. It is good but only good for certain decks. Mimic Vat can fit into almost any deck. I personally think it is a high caliber staple.

My investment philosophy leans heavily towards diversification. My collection is huge and I have multiple specs going on all at once. I’m fully fine on waiting a year+ for a card to pan out as long as I bought/traded for it at its bottom. I used to buy playsets of any new cards from a hot SCG deck when the series started. Now that the luster of their series has dwindled I don’t do that anymore unless the deck is the real deal but you can see from that how my mind somewhat works.

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By: Jared Elick https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/10/the-financial-opportunities-of-the-scars-block-rotation-part-1-of-2/#comment-36082 Wed, 03 Oct 2012 02:32:08 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=32135#comment-36082 This seems like a good list, except that Contagion engine is one of those cards that never trades. I doubt too many casual players want it. Sunblast Angel is EDH exclusive, and is hilarious(Kamahl, pay G, destroy your land?), but it’s that card everyone has 30 of. I have never traded one away, and doubt I will if it’s non-foil.

I say pick up the foils of those two, all copies of the rest, and remember to mention they are rotating out. I picked up some Batterskulls off a guy who priced them at $4.

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By: Gervaise Pechler https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/10/the-financial-opportunities-of-the-scars-block-rotation-part-1-of-2/#comment-36080 Tue, 02 Oct 2012 20:38:03 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=32135#comment-36080 Thank you for this article Ryan 🙂 It made me ponder and brainstorm a bit in how to acquire these. I was thinking of printing off an A4 with these names + some others resembling a some sort of ”always wants” and their value next to it so people know what it’s worth trading for with me, what do you think?

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By: tragicslip https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/10/the-financial-opportunities-of-the-scars-block-rotation-part-1-of-2/#comment-36078 Tue, 02 Oct 2012 18:52:29 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=32135#comment-36078 In reply to Ryan Abcede.

while i admit that commander cards can drive card prices, there is no hurry to pick up anything commander specific rotating out because there is so much supply. i think that supply and its short term effect on prices means huge returns if you can pick up foily one-ofs. i also think it’s less risky to consider all formats when speculating on cards.

i certainly think your picks are discussion worthy but lets compare basilisk collar mimic vat:

http://blacklotusproject.com/cards/Worldwake/Basi

i could see mimic vat getting to 2.5 in a year but it isn’t likely to go from 1 to 5 dollars (as the collar did).

“I am also not saying to get every card on this list. Pick and choose which type of investments you are comfortable with.”

this is fine and i really do appreciate you sticking your neck out and making picks, i just want to better understand how you are reaching picks. what is your investment thesis? understanding that would clarify what i view as head scratchers (assuming my investment thesis is different) and help everyone pick and choose the RIGHT investment for their strategy.

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By: Ryan Abcede https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/10/the-financial-opportunities-of-the-scars-block-rotation-part-1-of-2/#comment-36077 Tue, 02 Oct 2012 18:06:16 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=32135#comment-36077 In reply to tragicslip.

I am not sure if you realize almost all of my calls are based off of Commander playability. They are absolutely not 4 ofs, they are actually 1 ofs. The power of the Commander market is huge and drives the price of the majority of non constructed cards. The reason I focused on Mimic Vat is because the buy in is so low.

I do talk *SPOILER ALERT* Birthing Pod tomorrow but its buy in is much higher. I didnt talk about Surgical because it isnt as Commander specific. The cards I talk about are the future Basilisk Collars or Rite of Replications of this block. Both those cards are definitely on their way up and they have everything to do with Commander backing them.

Broken down to its basics, I guess you can say what I am suggesting is loosely bulk buying but it is targeted bulk buying. I don’t see anything wrong with that. I am also not saying to get every card on this list. Pick and choose which type of investments you are comfortable with.

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By: tragicslip https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/10/the-financial-opportunities-of-the-scars-block-rotation-part-1-of-2/#comment-36076 Tue, 02 Oct 2012 17:45:26 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=32135#comment-36076 In reply to Ryan Abcede.

my problem with contagion engine and mimic vat is my inability to see either of those cards get a lot of play in different kinds of deck. caged sun will likely find a home in a couple of decks, but is it a four of? i think obtaining foils of these cards make much more sense as they still seem niche to me.

birthing pod and surgical extraction. spoiler alert?

what i mean by mutual fund is that they are generally over diversified. in the investing world i am pretty suspicious of mutual funds because they are a broker product. they sell you diversity but often that translates to: i don’t know what you should invest in so i’ll hedge.

that said getting any of the cards you say 4/1 for dollar rares or 3/1 is not a bad plan just as trading into bulk can grind out good profits. i just think there are easier targets with less risk AND greater reward.

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By: Ryan Abcede https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/10/the-financial-opportunities-of-the-scars-block-rotation-part-1-of-2/#comment-36074 Tue, 02 Oct 2012 17:10:37 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=32135#comment-36074 In reply to tragicslip.

I am not sure if sounding like a Mutual Fund ad is a good thing or a bad thing. Ill take it as good, but just not your cup of tea. 🙂

In regards to Vat, Sun, Engine and Destiny I think you are wrong. Do you really believe Mimic Vat will stay around $1 for the next year or two? If you do i think you are definitely wrong. The others are not as strong in my opinion but follow similar logic. Caged Sun seems like a no brainer as well, it just may take a long while for it to go up to extraplanar lens levels. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I’d wager something on it but it is such a long time from now who knows were either of us will be in a year let alone the day after the Mayan Calendar is finished.

In regards to Sun Titan, I may have been unclear. The “Pick up any version you can find. All will be sought after to fill Cubes and Commander decks.” line was only in reference to Sun Titan himself. He is the best Titan going forward as his power is much better suited to Commander. I skipped on talking about Frost Titan because I did not think he will be worth looking at. *SPOILER ALERT* I talk about buying into Primeval if he drops really low in tomorrows article so I guess we are on the same wave length there.

Thanks for reading and I am glad we at least agreed on some things. Long calls are not an exact science but most of mine are so low risk that they can at least help you diversify (more mutual fund speak).

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By: tragicslip https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/10/the-financial-opportunities-of-the-scars-block-rotation-part-1-of-2/#comment-36069 Tue, 02 Oct 2012 13:53:35 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=32135#comment-36069 the wider your focus, the more this reads like a mutual fund ad to me. while i understand the reasoning behind some of these picks and will personally be on the lookout for phantasmal image, phyrexian metamorphs, batterskulls and sun titan in that order i would hesitate to even chase your other picks outside of throw-ins.

also, there is a world of difference between the titans in terms of play-ability across formats. if primeval titans get VERY cheap i would go after them but presently most of the titans remain too high to justify their level of play. mimic vat foils? yes please. otherwise, no thank you. the same goes for caged sun, contagine engine, and angelic destiny.

consecrated sphinx is a good card, but what you describe in the article is not actionable advice.

i would expect to be able to sell phantasmal images @4 to dealers in short order. i also think this card has the potential to sell to dealers for up to 8$. it is good in multiples and splashable.

phyexian metamorph maxes out at maybe a dollar less, is more splashable and also good in multiples.

batterskull is mythic card advantage. it will likely see less play but be worth more than a phantasmal image in the long run. if i could trade one for one i would.

sun titan tricks are powerful enough to give this titan some staying power. 4 titans for one batterskull or the slightly less favorable 3 titans for one phantasmal image.

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