Comments on: Insider: The Value Barrier of Standard https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Tue, 18 Jan 2022 02:54:33 +0000 hourly 1 By: Jason Stinnett https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-37043 Wed, 14 Nov 2012 04:04:52 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-37043 Right now I am almost purely in the play magic as a hobby camp. Engaged, bought a house, just got a new dog. Spending money budget supports playing as much as I have time for so playing is my choice – time is more scarce than money. Recently realized how much I could save / how many more deck options I have just by trading between rounds.

Considering getting into cash specs and if I did I would treat it like I did when I played online poker- I am buying this video game with spending money and the money is now virtual. Keeps you emotionally divested from risks and losses and keeps you out of trouble with needing the money.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36871 Thu, 08 Nov 2012 14:18:30 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36871 In reply to Jason Stinnett.

You make a valid point, and one worth considering. This blurs the line between investing in magic and playing magic as a hobby. I used to strictly do the latter and I had a ton of fun playing. But as my friends moved away, I got married, and had a baby my time to play has diminished and so I’ve shifted to investing in Magic. It’s difficult to keep both separate in my mind. How do you do this?

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By: Jason Stinnett https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36854 Thu, 08 Nov 2012 02:10:00 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36854 I think there it is a fallacy that you can’t have a collection reserved for playing and a collection for profit. Think about cash – you have cash to pay the bills, some for savings, and some for going out and having fun. If an old friend calls you up to go out to dinner, you (hopefully!) don’t say ‘going to dinner used to be fun, but now I can’t justify spending the money when I could be investing it’. Spending money is designated to be spent on memories and experiences.

Do the same with magic – use spending money or cash out some investment to buy a deck and a season of playing and think of it as completely separate from your investment bankroll.

On the topic of playing standard on a fixed budget, rather than recommending investing in specific tier 1.5 – 2 decks I recommend investing in your favorite color combination or shard. Get all the expensive cards and tweak your deck all season. Learn when U/W should be be aggro/control and when it should be slow control – Restoration Angel and Snapcaster are good in both. If you buy all the good Bant cards learn when you should be playing G/W ramp and when you should be playing U/W tempo. Be open minded enough to play cards that don’t see high level play when they will be good in your local metagame – Champion of Lambholt can be a blowout if no one plays much removal. By committing to a color combination and brewing a new strategy in those colors each time the metagame shifts you can play the same cards competitively all season.

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By: pi https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36781 Tue, 06 Nov 2012 19:03:07 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36781 In reply to Sigmund Ausfresser.

I last had a Type 2 legal deck during Invasion/Odyssey blocks Type 2…

Back then I didn’t yet have nearly the collection I have now and many of the players at the university were playing Type 2. Even then I wasn’t all that fond of it, though I liked how one of the guys top 8-ed with a Last Stand deck with Necrologia tech that I suggested. It turned out that Necro-ing in response to an end of turn Fact or Fiction was pretty decent.

Not too much later I started aiming more and more towards serious casual decks and started building my casual oriented collection. To me playing something of the beaten path has always been more fun than the latest and greatest in Type 2. I was also already somewhat aware of the effects of rotation by then and this awareness quickly grew.

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By: Mathieu Malecot https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36746 Mon, 05 Nov 2012 22:02:20 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36746 In reply to Mathieu Malecot.

i ran a psychic spiral deck at a GPT locally. no epic experiment ’cause i flipped it but i still went 3-2-1 tieing and losing to 2 that made top 8.

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By: Mathieu Malecot https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36745 Mon, 05 Nov 2012 22:01:10 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36745 In reply to Sigmund Ausfresser.

play modern/legacy. draft standard. in legacy there are multiple deck archtypes to choose from. thragtusk isn’t in every deck, etc.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36744 Mon, 05 Nov 2012 21:12:50 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36744 In reply to drackmorph.

Thanks for the comment, drackmorph! It’s reassuring to hear that there are others in the MTG community experiencing the same dilemmas as I am. Balancing competitive play with family can be tough, and when the competitive play also drops the value of your collection it is almost too much for me to stomach. But I feel like this format is a lot of fun and I am missing out by not playing. I may try one of these Tier 1.5 decks. Epic Experiment does look fun and cheap…

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By: Daniel Yang https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36742 Mon, 05 Nov 2012 20:20:41 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36742 In reply to Sigmund Ausfresser.

Right now, it seems like there’s RDW for hyper-aggro, GW-Midrange (doesn’t use thragtusk) with a combination of rancor, silverblade, silverheart, Sublime. Epic Ex mill seems to be possible with temporals, and UR tempo control with electromancer, guttersnipe, and counters. Finally, I’m using a man-artifact removal build that has: 4x Supreme, 4x Sever the Bloodline and the GW and UW keyrunes. The other slots are all situational and based off of the meta at my LGS. Each of these decks are have hard counters that exist (besides maybe the RDW and GW) so they aren’t exactly T1, but they’re close in the right meta.

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By: drackmorph https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36741 Mon, 05 Nov 2012 20:17:33 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36741 Man… This seems repetitive…but i couldn’t agree more with everything you said…is just you read my mind :D. Even the baby issue applies :). I used to play standard a lot and assume that as a natural loss, for fun. However, after rotation, knowing that RTR was overpriced I shifted to EDH….and waited. Now i am going back to standard, mainly because of a GPT trial for lisbon that is going to be done in my local magic club as T2 (as Bant or U/W/R)… However, I am still not sure what I am going to do after. Maybe I will stick around for a few time (At least the shocklands shouldn’t drop that much 🙂 )… but without doing big deck changes.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36739 Mon, 05 Nov 2012 17:10:36 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36739 In reply to Daniel Yang.

This is an interesting approach and one I should consider trying. I enjoy playing Tier 1.5 Standard decks as a challenge to “get there” against all the expensive decks. What deck would qualify for this description now?

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36738 Mon, 05 Nov 2012 17:08:39 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36738 In reply to pipdickenz.

This is a strong point. My personal situation holds me back at times because of my wife and baby boy. Going to FNM’s until 11:00 at night is very suboptimal for my family, so I often cannot stay long enough to earn those prizes. A personal choice but an impactful one nonetheless.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36737 Mon, 05 Nov 2012 17:06:59 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36737 In reply to pi.

@Pi – It does sound like we have the same value equation holding us back from Standard (although I do enjoy the format from time to time). I hate holding Standard cards for too long, and the knowledge that the hot potato may end on me deters me from enjoying the format to its fullest.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36736 Mon, 05 Nov 2012 17:04:29 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36736 In reply to Matthew Lewis.

In the absolute you are correct – market forces of supply and demand dictate a card’s price and this is an objective process. The problem is, most decisions we make have an emotional slant associated with them. In this case, it is my emotions interfering with my ability to enjoy a format like Standard. I know that if I want to play a winning deck I need to drop 80$ on Thragtusks (for example) and by the time I want to move my Thragtusks, they’ll be $10 each. While I would certainly get enjoyment from using the cards, the logical side of me says why take on that additional cost when it is unnecessary?

It’s an ongoing battle between my desire to enjoy the hobby and my desire to make money from the hobby.

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By: Daniel Yang https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36732 Mon, 05 Nov 2012 16:40:06 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36732 I take the expensive price of ‘staple’ standard cards as a challenge. There are always enough bulk rares and semi-bulk rares that add up into a competitive deck. It might not quite be tier 1, but it gets close. Instead of a deck of >$20 rares, use a deck of $10 rares that don’t fluctuate as much.

For example, while Delver was the format I built a mono white that could match or even outpace Delver with Silverblade, Nearheath Pilgrim, and Angel of Jubilation. W/o Phyrexian mana almost every Delver deck got shut down. The most expensive cards in my deck were caverns to ensure the angel. Once the angel was down, I just hold faith’s shield to keep it from being bounced. I consistently won every fnm so I used the winnings as funding for the deck and got stuff like Champion of the Parish and Elite Inquisitor (which combined with Celestial Purge destroyed zombies easily).

Mainly, I just hold onto dual/shock lands regardless of price (only exception has been woodland cemetery). They’re sure to be worth money later, so I don’t mind keeping them so that when I do build a standard deck my mana base is solid.

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By: pipdickenz https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36730 Mon, 05 Nov 2012 16:20:02 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36730 If you do maintain a tier 1 standard deck and are a reasonably good player you should be balancing out the loss of value with prizes won from tournaments. I feel like it’s very much worth attending FNMs for the prizes,trade opportunities and to further understand the market. When you go to fnm and every third person there is asking for Swagtusks (still) you’d understand why he’s able to command and hold a $25 price as well as witnessing first hand the reason entreat the angels is going down (sever the bloodline) or sigarda is probably still a pickup.

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By: Thomas Dodd https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36727 Mon, 05 Nov 2012 15:47:26 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36727 I strictly view my standard deck as an opportunity cost. I want to be viewed as a player at FNM who trades for fun. I do not want to sit in a corner and be a faux dealer.

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By: pi https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36726 Mon, 05 Nov 2012 15:32:41 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36726 In reply to Matthew Lewis.

While I agree with you in principle, I am in a situation where it simply does not make much sense to me to trade for high value standard cards. I have little use for them myself outside of the possible lone copy I might need for EDH and I have few people within easy reach who are looking for standard cards, making me likely to be holding the hot potato if/when the card drops in value. Of course if that changed I should make sure to understand high value from a Standard perspective, but for me in my current position there would be little benefit to trying to formulate a hypothesis on why a card like Thragtusk currently has a high value. My time is better spent trying to do the same for a card like The Abyss that is within my scope (and for which I admittedly am also not sure why it’s suddenly rising, though I do have a guess). I like to stick with what I know.

Similarly the cost/benefit equation for Sig might have a similar result.

@Sig, I’ve pretty much stayed away from standard for the reasons explained, however contrary to yourself, the format does not really draw me either. I find it rather frustrating to know there are better cards in my collection than I could play in the deck but I am not allowed to (specifically Duals). Still, should a card be nice for EDH I do try to obtain a copy, even if I know full well that the price will drop. Thinking of Baneslayers purchased for 30 euros still hurts.

I should probably not even set aside the single copies for EDH usage but just trade or sell them if I come across an opportunity and repurchase/trade only when I absolutely need them for a deck.

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By: Matthew Lewis https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/11/insider-the-value-barrier-of-standard/#comment-36725 Mon, 05 Nov 2012 14:45:46 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=33189#comment-36725 “I simply do not agree with the current price of Thragtusk and I personally feel the card will drop in price from here.”

I feel like your approach to prices is holding back your analysis. A price is just a data point that represents the collective actions of market participants, and the more efficient the market the more objective that price is. Ascribing a subjective perspective on prices seems limiting to me. Basically when you say a price is ‘absurd’ or ‘baffling’, you are saying ‘I don’t understand what is going on’. Why not forward hypotheses and then refine and develop your ideas? If you can develop your understanding then it will lead into being able to take advantage of future opportunities.

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