Comments on: Insider: Timing the Market https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/12/insider-timing-the-market/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Tue, 18 Jan 2022 02:54:28 +0000 hourly 1 By: Matthew Lewis https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/12/insider-timing-the-market/#comment-38754 Tue, 18 Dec 2012 21:58:13 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=34205#comment-38754 In reply to John Gwak.

The great thing about using a ratio, it doesn’t matter what the number is as long as you have something to compare it to. Removing junk rares from the values would shift the ratio, but does the resulting number mean anything? No, you’d have to compare it to other ratio values, and it’s in the comparison that some knowledge can be gained.

By comparing ratios, you can get a feel for how prices are moving. At this point, for the particular ratio that I am calculating, 0.33 seems to be the low end and 0.80 seems to be the high end. It might be that I could further refine the ratio, but I haven’t yet considered what might be a good approach or if it’s even necessary at all to change it.

Thanks for reading!

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By: John Gwak https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/12/insider-timing-the-market/#comment-38615 Mon, 17 Dec 2012 23:38:56 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=34205#comment-38615 Thank you for the MTGO Market Report graph! I help a lot to me when I decide what to redeem. One thing, can you the mtgo to paper ratio without crap rares(SCG price 0.49 rares)? The crap rares don’t worth and it usually 0.05 on mtgo and 0.49 on SCG. I compared the Modern block now and realize the lots of mtgo mythic price is much expensive than SCG Thanks anyway!

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By: Matthew Lewis https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/12/insider-timing-the-market/#comment-38574 Mon, 17 Dec 2012 12:08:11 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=34205#comment-38574 In reply to koen_knx.

Keep in mind that although cards do not get destroyed or lose quality online, the player base is churning, and some players who stop playing won’t sell their cards into the market. So, in sense, digital cards also get stacked away.

I have no idea how many copies of a given card exist.

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By: koen_knx https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/12/insider-timing-the-market/#comment-38562 Mon, 17 Dec 2012 09:07:52 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=34205#comment-38562 In reply to Matthew Lewis.

I have been wondering about this, and perhaps this might be a reason : there are a lot of new players online, wizards tell us there never have been more and they stick around longer, meaning much more product is opened.

But those new players rarely go into playing standard (or any type of constructed) I suppose, so the demand for these possibility-cards doesn’t rise accordingly. With real cards a lot ‘disappear’ from the grid, getting stacked away, worn out,… whereas all online cards stay mintyfresh.

What I also always wanted to know : do you have any idea of how many of a given standard card exist online ?

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By: Matthew Lewis https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/12/insider-timing-the-market/#comment-38477 Sun, 16 Dec 2012 13:33:36 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=34205#comment-38477 In reply to Trevor Holmes.

Thanks! I agree it’s probably a good bet to get to 1 tix at some point, but not a sure thing. Sounds like you got a nice stash at a good price, so I want to emphasize to other readers to not overpay for a card like Counterflux. At 0.1 tix or higher, that’s too much to speculate on a card like this.

I’ve been reviewing the rares I speculated on from Innistrad, and my binder is littered with cards I saw potential in, but in the end have gone nowhere. Only Stromkirk Noble and Gavony Township turned out to be profitable specs for non mythics. Overpaying on too many junk rares is a quick way to lose tix.

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By: Matthew Lewis https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/12/insider-timing-the-market/#comment-38476 Sun, 16 Dec 2012 13:26:35 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=34205#comment-38476 In reply to koen_knx.

Thanks for reading!

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By: Trevor Holmes https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/12/insider-timing-the-market/#comment-38447 Sun, 16 Dec 2012 05:23:58 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=34205#comment-38447 I agree with your assessment of Counterflux, plus it’s currently getting love at the Invitational. I napped 59 copies for just over 5 tix, could have gotten better prices but most bots only had 1 or 2 copies. It’s impossible for this card to not reach at least 1 ticket at some point in it’s life, and GerryT or some other pro will eventually make it cool to play and all the fanboys will jump on it 🙂 Great article!

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By: koen_knx https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/12/insider-timing-the-market/#comment-38427 Sat, 15 Dec 2012 15:55:26 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=34205#comment-38427 I agree that the best moment to start buying these cards comes in about a month; your previous article about them was perhaps a bit too soon on that. Only 2 of the buys i made back then are allready up (Utvara and Necropolis), most went much further down. I must say I didn’t expect Vraska (or Jace) to drop this low and I can only hope it will folllow Garruks priceline. Once again I learned a lesson though, wait to buy gatecrash until april (unless some weird onecard opportunity should arise).

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By: Matthew Lewis https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/12/insider-timing-the-market/#comment-38381 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 19:27:23 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=34205#comment-38381 In reply to Mateusz Kniżewski.

Thanks! Glad you enjoyed it.

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By: Mateusz Kniżewski https://www.quietspeculation.com/2012/12/insider-timing-the-market/#comment-38369 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 14:02:02 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=34205#comment-38369 Greate Article.

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