Comments on: Insider: Initial Look at Dragon’s Maze https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/04/insider-initial-look-at-dragons-maze/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Tue, 18 Jan 2022 02:46:01 +0000 hourly 1 By: Matthew Lewis https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/04/insider-initial-look-at-dragons-maze/#comment-52968 Mon, 29 Apr 2013 13:39:41 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=37597#comment-52968 In reply to lepongemagique.

Prices from a set are generally low when a set is being actively drafted. The switch to core set drafting is usually when prices start rising. The curveball this year is that Modern Masters is coming out in June, and we don’t know how this will affect DGM drafting.

As a general principal, timing the market on mtgo is hard, and even if you time it perfectly, the bots will react to aggressive buying by raising prices. This means that you might not be able to build up a large position if you wait for the bottom. Last year I was waiting on Restoration Angel, and by the time I started buying, I only got 15 copies before it started going up to prices I wasn’t willing to pay. I was going to go 100+ copies deep, and that would have been a nice spec, but I waited too long.

My general rule is to look for the approximate bottom during release events, and start buying the mythics that I think have value. Regular rares will often continue to drift down in price, so I am not so keen on buying these during release events.

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By: Matthew Lewis https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/04/insider-initial-look-at-dragons-maze/#comment-52966 Mon, 29 Apr 2013 13:29:23 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=37597#comment-52966 In reply to Lee Bosley.

We’ll see! I can’t wait for some results including DGM to come in.

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By: lepongemagique https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/04/insider-initial-look-at-dragons-maze/#comment-52560 Fri, 26 Apr 2013 15:55:30 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=37597#comment-52560 Great insight!

What’s your opinion about the timing? I was reviewing the AVR charts and for most (80 to 90%) of the rares and mythics the bottom was after about 1 week of release. To the exception of Bonfire which constantly rose after that 1st week, the others cards stayed at the bottom for several weeks until the release of M14.

My point is: It looks like there is no need for rush to buy? And especially if we target severals cards (5 to 10) there’s great chances of missing lowest than missing THE HIT if we precipitate our buys?

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By: Lee Bosley https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/04/insider-initial-look-at-dragons-maze/#comment-52558 Fri, 26 Apr 2013 15:18:36 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=37597#comment-52558 I agree, the Portfolio Update is fantastic.

I am sold on Council of the Absolute. Azorius just feels strong and reliable for the upcoming Block.

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By: Matthew Lewis https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/04/insider-initial-look-at-dragons-maze/#comment-52555 Fri, 26 Apr 2013 15:04:47 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=37597#comment-52555 In reply to Alexander Carl.

Thanks for reading!

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By: Alexander Carl https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/04/insider-initial-look-at-dragons-maze/#comment-52554 Fri, 26 Apr 2013 14:31:12 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=37597#comment-52554 Good article, as usual. The portfolio update is very helpful.

Don’t see too many strong constructed cards in DGM, but something always breaks out…

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