Comments on: Insider: My Modern Misstep https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Tue, 18 Jan 2022 02:43:44 +0000 hourly 1 By: Brian kang https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58185 Thu, 27 Jun 2013 19:11:25 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58185 I was so lost as to what to do I actually instant got a membership for advice. I expected some all clarifying answer but that was unfair to expect. In the end we are just betting on stocks, but more importantly, trying to predict human behavior; a near impossible task. But I did take away something from what you said. It is probably better to diversify a little bit into more liquadable assests. So I plan to trade off the foil goyfs

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58128 Wed, 26 Jun 2013 01:14:49 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58128 In reply to Brian kang.

Yikes, not sure but that’s a lot of money you’re sitting on there. Seems risky to hold it all, but these will only go up as Modern season approaches barring a reprint. It’s really your call on whether or not you think there will be more MM printed.

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By: Brian kang https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58123 Tue, 25 Jun 2013 22:09:55 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58123 What’s the game plan on foils? I have two foil goyfs and two foil bobs and a foil clique but I don’t know if to sit or trade. Any advice?

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58101 Tue, 25 Jun 2013 12:23:17 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58101 In reply to Justin Leonard.

It’s all about diversification. The time to buy Thoughtseizes/Oozes/Vaults hasn’t arrived yet. We need to wait for M14 to be out a couple months first. In the meantime I’ll try to have my money work for me in Goyfs. Hope to sell these for some profits heading closer to Modern season and then buy other underpriced cards at that time.

You certainly voice a legitimate caution. But Goyf has been this expensive before, so I don’t think we’re necessarily in a bubble yet.

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By: aregand https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58089 Tue, 25 Jun 2013 02:30:19 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58089 In reply to Justin Leonard.

Since Bloodbraid was banned Jund has been wounded- not many other decks regularly run both – new Jund variants, Junk and BUG but none have been dominating. If you like other decks you are OK. There are tons of options.

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By: Justin Leonard https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58085 Tue, 25 Jun 2013 00:00:29 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58085 In reply to JonyFerreira.

I agree – it seems like the uncertainty has lead to a “buy into the hype” mindset. Look at the top 16 from Portland – Bob and Goyf are almost absent, but people feel like you must have them! I think a lot of people are scared of scarcity locking them out of “the deck”, so they are aggressively buying. Is this just SCG playing the Wal-mart ‘rollback’ game?

I for one think the opportunity cost of locking $500+ down in a playset of Goyfs is way too steep – I’m willing to risk them jumping 20% for modern season if it means I have the chance to grab foil Thoughseizes/Oozes/Vaults to sit on for a few months/years.

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By: JonyFerreira https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58081 Mon, 24 Jun 2013 21:29:29 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58081 Isn’t there a possibility that this modern prices are a bubble?

-SCG have a very aggressive buylist prices.

-Don’t think many players who didn’t have a modern deck during the last 2 years will go now when the card prices are this high.

-Modern continues to be just a seasonal format.

-we are out of season

-In europe, which have a much lower MM supply, the prices continue much lower than on US.

something inside me don’t believe this is normal

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By: Mathieu Malecot https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58078 Mon, 24 Jun 2013 20:15:44 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58078 4000+ blowing out charlotte #s = more demand. SCG buying goyfs on the floor for 110 FROM VENDORS is an artificial supply constraint in the works. if you got in under that price you did very well. serious props, sell into modern prix events if you are specing.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58077 Mon, 24 Jun 2013 19:36:21 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58077 In reply to CHARLES KONG.

May be a slight impact, but everyone recognizes nonblue Zen fetches as $20 and blue as $30 (minimum, likely higher). Price memory will keep these prices higher even if ONS fetches are introduced into Modern. Just my opinion of course.

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By: aregand https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58075 Mon, 24 Jun 2013 19:01:23 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58075 In reply to Sigmund Ausfresser.

Once they revealed bob at mythic I felt best to hedge not knowing print run AND that more people might jump into format.

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By: CHARLES KONG https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58074 Mon, 24 Jun 2013 19:00:05 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58074 In reply to Sigmund Ausfresser.

the last part refers to if the zen fetches have not been reprinted and then they decided to go ahead and do the onslaught fetches

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By: CHARLES KONG https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58073 Mon, 24 Jun 2013 18:59:01 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58073 In reply to Sigmund Ausfresser.

Thanks Sig, I will look forward to your articles, I was 100 percent in your mind frame that onslaught fetches should always be higher however I feel like the ones played most could possibly tie them because of their multiple format applications and the growth of modern before the actual reprint or announcement when they eventually do. What’s your take on those factors? Do you think they will print the onslaught fetches one day and how might those effect the zen fetches if they did in your opinion?

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58071 Mon, 24 Jun 2013 18:38:02 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58071 In reply to CHARLES KONG.

Hi Charles,

Thank you very much for your comment! Your compliment means a lot to me – I hope I can continue making your Mondays just a tad bit better 🙂

Zendikar Fetch Lands don’t really have a “ceiling” barring reprint. They’ll never be more expensive than respective Onslaught fetches, but they will continue to climb as long as they’re not reprinted. I personally have my set of 20 Zen fetches plus 2 or 3 extras and that’s it. They’re great for facilitating trades in either direction because they’re as good as cash and no one minds having them. But it seems inevitable they’ll be reprinted some day…so I wouldn’t want to be sitting on dozens when that happens.

Sword has limited downside here but it’s not played a whole ton, is it? It may even be played more in EDH than in Modern, and it’s only a 1-of in Legacy at most. That being said, they won’t really drop in price (unless they show up in Modern Masters II or something).

Thanks for the article suggestion! Will keep it in mind.

Sig

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By: CHARLES KONG https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58069 Mon, 24 Jun 2013 18:06:21 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58069 Hi Sig, How are you, Love your articles. I never miss a monday without reading your stuff, what’s your impression of the zendikar fetchlands, do they have a ceiling barring reprint, They just keep rising and tarn is apparently the most important. How about sword of feast and famine, it seems super underpriced? I would love for you to write maybe an article on the unreprinted mythics and staples if you could one day, thanks 🙂

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58068 Mon, 24 Jun 2013 17:53:42 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58068 In reply to chester moon.

I’ve seen this argument in the forums. The counter-argument is that Ooze is in Legacy but Goyf is still played constantly. Deathrite Shaman was also in Modern last season and this didn’t hold Goyf back. If you’re best answer to my Goyf is to spend a dozen or two of mana removing our graveyards from the game 1 card at a time, I think I’m OK with that.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58067 Mon, 24 Jun 2013 17:52:17 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58067 In reply to Richard Kho.

Nice! I refresh my search on eBay every couple hours with the hopes of getting lucky. But now that I’ve bought my Goyfs back I’ll likely just watch from the sidelines.

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By: chester moon https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58066 Mon, 24 Jun 2013 17:43:03 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58066 My problem with Tarmogoyf, Is I keep seeing the vision of two players during modern season, both playing the exact same deck. One can’t afford goyf so plays ooze, the other can. The ooze player wins those matchup’s 9 out of 10 times. the goyf player is left wondering why did I spend 100$ for a card that gets beaten by a card 10$ card half the tournament has maindecked.

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By: Richard Kho https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58065 Mon, 24 Jun 2013 17:39:49 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58065 In reply to Sigmund Ausfresser.

On Saturday, I found a seller who listed 3 Goyfs @ $240 in NM/M condition and snap-bought them a few minutes after he listed. Also found 4 Goyfs @ $340 on MOTL that I just picked up. I’m pretty sure my luck’s run out on those by now though.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58061 Mon, 24 Jun 2013 13:18:21 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58061 In reply to aregand.

Well done! I was reckless by not buying a month ago. I wanted to wait for GP Vegas, which apparently isn’t having the impact I predicted.

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By: aregand https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/06/insider-my-modern-misstep/#comment-58059 Mon, 24 Jun 2013 12:48:22 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=39170#comment-58059 I sold back in January and hedged about a month ago buying back 2 bobs, 2 goyfs and one clique. Still a little profit as I didn’t overpay on ebay. Opened a clique from release event and goyf at GP 🙂 nearly back to even.

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