Somehow I got it into my head that junk mythics would be more profitable if bought after their relevant draft format revolved out and being sold to redeemers during the high season… I thought that they would be a safer bet because they’re not affected by changes in the meta… I’ve spent a bit of time on excel and found that isn’t really the case.

Back to the drawing board.

But given a starting point you can track how cards, weighted or not (as their are from their origin) evolve and compare to the MtgoGoldFish.

Probably not the easiest way to do it, but you could that you buy 1 tix of each of the 15 mythics of M14 at day 1 (whatever is that day).

Then at any time point, look at the progression of each of the 15 mythics (+20%, +54%, -31%…) affect in consequence the 1 Tix starting value, add all the 15 values, and see whats the progression compare to the 15 Tix initially invested. And finally compare that progression to the M14_M indice progression.

Monsieur Sylvain wrote a long post in the forums, I guess you’ve seen it, where he concludes:

“Second, and in addition to my reason 1- above there is a trend that I observed with all the M12 and M13 mythics: cheap mythics are more likely to yield better %…”

I think some kind of weighted index would help to demonstrate this.

But as to how one would weight it, I have no idea. I’m interested in statistics but don’t actually know anything about it… I think I’m going to have to have a go at it with excel…

Based on M12 and M13 mythics indices, cheap cards affected more the avrage than expensive cards, during their 1st 6-9 months (I didn’t look at it during post redemption period).

I see! What do you think the weights could be? I guess price weights? Do you think there’s a practical advantage to adding weights? Generally I just use data that’s available and don’t collect much of my own. Adding weights would probably mean that I’d need individual data series for at least the mythic rares. Not sure hoe the cost/benefit of adding weights would work out.

There is one example of a well known index that does not use weights, the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The index is an average of all cards of a certain rarity, and it’s going to be skewed / distorted by statistical outliers. it’s not ” weighted” in any way.

If you bought one of every card of a certain rarity, you would replicate the index, but the thing is, no one ever does buy one of every card of a certain rarity, they buy more of the cheaper ones than the more expensive ones.

Ands cheaper ones are going to be more affected by redemption, because changes in playability don’t affect them. Example: reap intellect. No one plays it, so out has hit absolute bottom.

I think weighting the index should be its next evolution. let me know if you need help from someone who can use excel!

Thanks for the comment!

Unfortunately we don’t have a ton of data yet, and so when looking at something like this, we are subject to bias due to the small sample size. But we do what we can, and the theory is lining up with reality pretty well on average.

One of the hidden advantages to investing in an index of mythics is a reduction in transaction time. It’s much easier to buy/sell 4x of every mythic because bots are usually willing to buy/sell a bunch of different mythics rather than a lot of copies of one mythic. “Buying them all” reduces our own bias around pet cards, for better or for worse.

Like, last year, I figured the SOM planewalkers would be good bets. But Mindslaver was probably the top performing SOM mythic, % gain wise. That was not what I expected.

Lastly, for timing purpose, yes, individual cards do peak and trough at different times, especially ones that are not played competitively. In the summer of last year, the NPH praetors were cheap, and I loaded up on a lot of them. Vorinclex and Jin Gitiaxias both yielded 100%+ profit from August through November, an atypical time to be speccing on mythics in this way. By the middle of November rolled around, these ‘premature’ price jumps on the preators definitely reduced the potential gains on the NPH index as a whole from that point onward.

Average indices as presented by MtgoGoldfish are not “weighted” meaning they reflect more the variation of expensive cards than cheap cards.

Still in this idea of comparing the average prices between Nov and post rotation peak, constituting a portfolio of each mythics bought for the same amount of total Tix would probably result in even highest profit that the one you mentioned, providing the rotated mythics behave the same way that M12 and M13 mythics when released (as I was saying in on of my posts: cheap mythics see higher increase, but are less significant in absolute price compare to expensive mythics).

Also, and this is trickier to adjust, it is possible to yield bigger profits by selling individually cards when time is best for a given card. At least for M12, even if the average indice increases, some mythics (maybe because reprinted and/or standard playable) literally evolve at opposite of the indice (ex: Jace, Memory Adept)