yeah, i know these portfolios won’t reflect real returns thanks to good mtg finance habits. when first deadline hits (release of theros) i’ll make an article comparing the two. we can cover shortcomings of methodology then in the comment section.

Ok, sounds fun. I tend to do a lot of bargain shopping to minimize risk and maximize reward… And also buy collections and sell what I don’t want and keep cards that I think have potential to gain. But sure I’ll compare retail prices of specs for fun. I have some other stuff I forgot to mention too…

9 winds of rath. This has already been gaining steam from the EDH audience, and if enchantments become popular in EDH this will blow up. Got these at 1.50 each.

4 Enchanted evenings… this has potential and is cheap. Picked them up as trade throw ins and kept one or 2 from collections bought.

this looks good, d-sphere is solid. to compare gains we can only choose price @start date and price at fixed future dates. theros release date looks like at least one good checkpoint, if you want to add feel free, you can virtually hold positions- it would be easier to compare returns if we start with portfolios of similar values.

Right now I have:

9 Kor Spiritdancers

1 Foil Kor Spiritdancer

18 D spheres

8 Serra’s Sanctum

6 Idyllic Tutors

So I’m not nearly as deep as you are, but a lot less less risk I’d say…

The spiritdancers have been gaining for months. They went from bulk to $4 long before it was spoiled that Theoros would have enchantments. Barring a reprint, will almost certainly keep gaining as people start building casual and EDH decks with new Theoros enchantments. Bought these all for like $1 – $1.50 this winter. The foil one was 2.49

The D Spheres have little to no risk, have a good chance of gaining even if enchantments aren’t relevant in standard (o ring is leaving and blue/white has a lot of other good cards to play this with). Picked these up in trades and bought collections.

Got the Sanctums for around $16 each after the enchantment theme was spoiled… Reserved list so almost no risk. I could see these exploding in price if enchantments become popular in EDH.

Idyllic Tutor is probably the riskiest of my picks because a reprint seems probable but I got them for buylist prices after enchantments were spoiled but I’ll gladly trade or sell these into the hype soon because I don’t want to have to worry about a reprint.

mark: are you equal weight your picks and how much per position? trader tools will make tracking your returns easy.

with less than 30 positions, i have a real hard time buying diminishing returns mattering. if you’ve read my previous article, you’d know i have a keen understanding about the dangers of over diversification. i actually quote studies that demonstrate the diminishing returns you are talking about.

you can still be diversified and specialized. hosing standard cards that don’t move in tandem for a standard portfolio is probably all the diversification you’d need.

still no competing portfolios makes me a sad panda.

I think the meat of my point is that if we’re just speculating with a “fund” of stuff that could be affected by Theros, Standard legal cards just aren’t the way to go. Especially with rotation coming up, none of the cards that matter with regards to enchantments are going to be in short supply. None of them are mythics. The only one that I think goes up (potentially a lot) in standard is like foil/foreign foil ethereal armor, and I still think you’re probably making a risky bet there (you’d basically be hoping for some insaneo hexproof enchantress in standard that’d see play in Legacy & Modern too, not saying it’s not going to happen, but enchantresses are rare). That being said, we do have a precedent. We got a random enchantress (Mesa) in FS, and the last two times a set was enchantment-centric we got one too (Saga, and ROE). So it might be worth it to hope for this.

Also, I think your argument about diversifying is a little bit flawed. As someone else pointed out, sticking with Standard legal cards isn’t diversity. Moreover, diversification has diminishing returns, as it negatively correlates with exposure.

Something to think about.

I think going with a portfolio is a good idea, minimize risk and diversify. But by choosing only standard cards you’re doing the opposite of diversifying… If you only pick standard cards that might gain value because of new enchantment themes, then you’re putting all your eggs in the “enchantment matters having an affect on standard competitive play basket”. I don’t think its a good idea to buy a bunch of standard junk and hoping that new cards come out to make them good ((37 copies of barrage of expendables?) You’re better off picking up things from all formats, especially staples in formats where “enchantments matter” is already popular like EDH… Because there’s already a demand for this niche of card and any new good enchantments are just going to make demand for the old staples even greater. Idyllic tutor, Serra’s Sanctum, Kor Spiritdancer, Detention Sphere would be on my list of things to pick up. Forget shit like mana bloom and legion’s initiative.

yes. a portfolio i’d like to see is a cube one. card changes are smaller, but the format has a lot of room to grow. modern isn’t bad either.

if you want to make a play in standard you find cards that typify the format today and cards that attack or run counter those trends. i think the white angel producing enchant does the latter and i like that card at today’s prices.

also, why wouldn’t you want apostles on the cheap? while i agree the premise behind the portfolio is weak (theros enchants) you are both undervaluing any portfolio’s greatest strength : forcing you to make enough bets. we have our best ideas and hopefully the best ideas when we make a portfolio and those are not always the same thing.

i think i lay out good reasons to play theros enchants in standard: “If you want to take advantage of spikes in pricing it is easier to do that playing Standard, if only because the card pool is smaller.”

David rejects that premise off the bat by choosing cards outside of standard. i don’t think he’s wrong to seek out cards that get better with more enchantments being played regardless of format legality but that is outside of the bounds of this example.

if you were looking for a card to do something similar in standard then you want the white event deck 3/3 that makes tokens when enchants are played.

i wasn’t being dismissive of his comment, rather looking for another portfolio.

if you thought your idea was better, what better way to measure it than to put it against mine anyway?

I think David has made some good points!

if you want to play enchantments in standard you have to chose from a limited pool. that was a basic assumption in the formation of this thing and might help you make sense of why only opalescence seems playable outside the format.

this is an exercise in constructing a portfolio. i welcome your input and encourage you to construct your own.

“Enchantments Matter” has _kinda_ happened before: Both in Rise of the Eldrazi, and Urza Block. This was a block that was overwhelmingly infatuated with enchantments, and were it not for Tolarian Academy, I don’t think people would’ve been as dismissive of that aspect of the block.

Starting with Urza Block, we can see that the most creative way they had to make auras not suck was the Rancor Cycle(s). Replenish is an expensive spec, but with only a potential $3 loss on each (per mtg.gg) you’re not doing awful (I know you were mostly looking at standard, but then you moved out of it)…

There are two similar effects that are modern legal: Retether, and Open The Vaults.

The former actually seems insanely powerful in the event that there are myriad auras in Theros.

I think it’s also important to remember that they’re going to explore new design space. Living Weapon for Auras? It’s been talked about since before living weapon was a thing. Licids coming back? Doubtful, but not impossible. I don’t think buying enchantments up willy-nilly is the move to make money on speculating for theros, because the likelihood isn’t that enchantments that already exist will get better, but that Enchantments in theros will BE better.

That doesn’t mean _anything_ for a card like Sanguine Bond, or Blind Obedience, but it means a LOT for Sigil of the Empty Throne, Mesa Enchantress, and Kor Spiritdancer.

Enduring Ideal, copy enchantment, auratog: all get better with each new enchantment printed. Greater Auramancy, Zur, Verduran Enchantress… those are the _kinds_ of cards you’d want to pick up in my opinion (even if not those cards specifically).