“What would be interesting to chart over time if the data was available was Casual only cards versus Legacy only cards versus cards played in both. We might be able to filter out the relative impact each has.”

I’ve actually written an article on each but I haven’t done a comparison between the two…which is a pretty good idea (so special thanks for that one)

I am indeed based in Europe, The Netherlands specifically.

I can tell you that back when SCG started hosting Legacy opens (I could find them as far back as ’09 in their archives, perhaps they started before that?) EDH had a much, much smaller following. I really think the impact on casual usable cards will be fairly minimal, there are many, many more of us than there are tournament players.

What would be interesting to chart over time if the data was available was Casual only cards versus Legacy only cards versus cards played in both. We might be able to filter out the relative impact each has.

Another interesting thing to look at would be to go back equally far from 2009 (or whenever the first legacy open was) and look at how prices were then. I’m pretty sure back in 2005 or so a Trop would have also been a lot cheaper than it was in 2009. (Though Vintage was still going fairly strong back then and it would be hard to account for that influence).

I agree that if there are no tournaments to play them in Legacy only cards would drop, however, that is still assuming no other tournament organizers will step up. There could also be new formats using those same cards (like going from Vintage to Legacy), heck, there might be a huge wave of new collector’s for all we know (though I’m not counting on it). There are many outside factors, SCG hosting these tournaments is only one of them. It’s good to consider them, but, assuming they have this power is just as bad as assuming they have no power over this at all. In reality it should fall somewhere in between those extremes.

Also if the foil just looks fuckin’ sweet. sometimes you can just tell. the instant I saw the art for All is Dust I knew it would be a goddamn gorgeous foil, and when the set released I was right.

Um, foil angels get hella love, way outside any other factor.

well, legacy. uh, daze was right in the article. :/

While I can understand your desire to hold onto something because you believe it’s at it’s floor, my argument was more aimed at those who didn’t get in on the ground floor but instead at say level 2…..nobody knows how high the elevator the elevator will go, but when it starts going back down again you don’t want to be holding onto the cards when they pass your buy in price…unless you think they really are worth your buy in price. I really hope you’re right on lie #3, but I honestly can’t see it. I think a big part of that is you’re based in Europe (I believe) which doesn’t have SCG propping up it’s legacy scene (like it does here in the US). I don’t know the European market as well…but I do know that before SCG started hosting legacy tournaments legacy prices were MUCH lower (I remember getting a Tropical Island @ $40 for EDH). There will be a much lower drop for the casual/edh playable cards, but ones that are almost exclusively legacy only will take quite a hit.

That’s an excellent point. It is important to remember that in economics..Price IS the indicator of demand. If there is no demand then a high price can not be sustained, and if the price is low enough demand will often go up (at least in a free market).

In other words, you should view a card’s peak as not where the most profit lies, but only where its demand runs out.

This depends entirely on what you got in at, what you envision the cards doing and what you aim to get out of the financial side of Magic. I got my Alurens at $5, I don’t see the card go lower than that, being reserved and all. I can get out at $5 at pretty much any point and just maybe at some point Aluren will catch on in Legacy. Keeping some copies set aside in a box somewhere is not going to be a hinderance. I trade, buy and sell to pay for collection maintenance and in general take a very long term perspective. I could use more money, but I am not short on it. I don’t need to get that money out ASAP.

Lie 3a SCG stopping Legacy support will be a death sentence to competitive Legacy.

You are forgetting all about the rest of the world. You are also assuming no other party would step up. Also your argument covers all Legacy cards, yet it’s hard to look at them without also considering EDH and casual in general. If you want to look at Legacy exclusively Spiral is probably a fair choice, but Duals aren’t as a significant part of their value is likely caused by casual demand.

I would agree that SCG stopping Legacy support would cause some riples among Legacy card prices, maybe even some minor waves, but I am quite convinced that nothing for which casual forms a significant part of the price will face more than that.

Yep..I know I myself have fallen into this trap before…all you can do is get yourself out of that mindset as fast as possible.