Comments on: Insider: To Crack or Not to Crack (Specialty Product) https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/08/insider-to-crack-or-not-to-crack-specialty-product/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Tue, 18 Jan 2022 02:43:39 +0000 hourly 1 By: David Schumann https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/08/insider-to-crack-or-not-to-crack-specialty-product/#comment-60059 Sat, 10 Aug 2013 11:28:01 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=40109#comment-60059 In reply to Joel Falcou.

If past trends prove accurate (barring any major announcements…like JTMS being unbanned in modern or banned in legacy), then I expect the value on a normal (non-foil) JTMS to drop to the 100-105 range (basically 80% of his current value) or his pre-spike price. The rest of the cards in the set will also take a hit, the major exceptions being Hymn to Tourach and Swords to Plowshares, as those are the first “cheap” foils available. My gut feeling is that anything above $140 will either barely break even or lose you money in the long run. There’s a decent chance that similar to FTV: Realms if you can buy it and unload it quick you can make a decent profit, however, I have a strong feeling that like other FTV’s the fact that this one has such a huge discrepency between card #1 and card #2 means that likely people will crack them, keep the Jace and sell/trade off the rest to “recoup” the cost. Thus in the short term, pick up any of the other foils you like as they will flood the market.

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By: David Schumann https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/08/insider-to-crack-or-not-to-crack-specialty-product/#comment-60039 Fri, 09 Aug 2013 20:15:02 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=40109#comment-60039 In reply to Kevin Cox.

Well if you’ve invested $100 into it..and the 2 money cards only go for $90..the most recent ebay sales of this around around $110-140

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1x-MTG-Magic-Sealed-From-

So it’s up to you…I think you’re better off selling it sealed as it’s the first and honestly one of the hardest ones to find “sealed” because it didn’t get the kind of reception that the newer FTV’s got..as there wasn’t a “chase” card worth a lot of money at the time.

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By: Kevin Cox https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/08/insider-to-crack-or-not-to-crack-specialty-product/#comment-60004 Fri, 09 Aug 2013 02:16:36 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=40109#comment-60004 What is your opinion on cracking a FTV: Dragons? The Bolas and Koko go for $50 and $40 respectively, but most of the other stuff is between $5-$1. I only paid $100.

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By: David Schumann https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/08/insider-to-crack-or-not-to-crack-specialty-product/#comment-59985 Thu, 08 Aug 2013 18:26:54 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=40109#comment-59985 In reply to Corbin Hosler.

Thanks..and I actually allude to that issue a couple times myself…typically the “high dollar” cards are the ones that sell quickly for around their asking price and the less in demand ones just languish in your binder/store window…

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By: Joel Falcou https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/08/insider-to-crack-or-not-to-crack-specialty-product/#comment-59982 Thu, 08 Aug 2013 17:40:05 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=40109#comment-59982 What do you think FTV:20 will end up ?

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By: Corbin Hosler https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/08/insider-to-crack-or-not-to-crack-specialty-product/#comment-59975 Thu, 08 Aug 2013 16:07:22 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=40109#comment-59975 The amount of work (and time) required to piece these out is what makes up the difference. Honestly, I still prefer to take a small percentage less and keep these boxed up in the closet, because when I do sell, I’m guaranteed to move the entire thing all at once, to one person.

But I really liked this analysis showing the other side.

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By: David Schumann https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/08/insider-to-crack-or-not-to-crack-specialty-product/#comment-59898 Tue, 06 Aug 2013 15:37:11 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=40109#comment-59898 In reply to aregand.

Yep and they reprinted slivers in M14 which gave that already popular tribe another push. But compare that with the “Premium Fire & Lightning Deck” which is selling on ebay for LESS than MSRP.

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By: David Schumann https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/08/insider-to-crack-or-not-to-crack-specialty-product/#comment-59897 Tue, 06 Aug 2013 15:36:15 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=40109#comment-59897 In reply to Ram Palaniappan.

Exactly. It’s not that I believe ALL of the products are worth more opened than sealed, it’s just that is typically the belief everyone holds. What I hope people pull from this is to run the numbers of the individual cards instead of just assuming it’s worth more sealed.

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By: David Schumann https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/08/insider-to-crack-or-not-to-crack-specialty-product/#comment-59896 Tue, 06 Aug 2013 15:34:44 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=40109#comment-59896 In reply to Jim Russell.

Yep…my friend actually asked me to sell his FTV: Realms on ebay the other day and I mentioned that the parts were worth more than the sealed product which baffled him. I was just as surprised as everyone else with the actual results of my research, but that’s why I do it.

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By: aregand https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/08/insider-to-crack-or-not-to-crack-specialty-product/#comment-59891 Tue, 06 Aug 2013 13:42:16 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=40109#comment-59891 The Premium Deck Slivers that people couldn’t give away is now 80-90. Sliver Evolution theme deck is 55-60.

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By: Ram Palaniappan https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/08/insider-to-crack-or-not-to-crack-specialty-product/#comment-59890 Tue, 06 Aug 2013 13:31:37 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=40109#comment-59890 Great analysis! I think there may be a threshold where sealed product becomes more valuable than its components ie all the commander decks, ftv exiled dragons etc

Sealed sets are also an interesting are as well as sealed collectible decks like the dotp planeswalker decks

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By: Jim Russell https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/08/insider-to-crack-or-not-to-crack-specialty-product/#comment-59888 Tue, 06 Aug 2013 13:12:05 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=40109#comment-59888 Good article Dave! “Keep it sealed, it’ll be worth more” is one of those myths that everyone thinks is true so it’s nice to see some data on it. I cracked my Commander’s Arsenal rather than keeping it sealed because I wanted to play with the cards in Commander. At the time, I was thinking that this was not the best idea financially but it sounds like it may work out ok. I have started to de-pimp my commander decks and the high and mid-tier cards from FTV Realms and Commander’s Arsenal have been selling really well for me. I would be interested to see the breakdown for the other FTV products.

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By: David Schumann https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/08/insider-to-crack-or-not-to-crack-specialty-product/#comment-59882 Tue, 06 Aug 2013 12:01:27 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=40109#comment-59882 In reply to WeQu.

I was going to put those in the article regarding “event decks”, though you are correct they have the ability to fall within either category. I believe the more recent “duel” decks have much larger print runs and are closer to event decks than specialty product, but the original duel decks are closer to specialty product.

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By: WeQu https://www.quietspeculation.com/2013/08/insider-to-crack-or-not-to-crack-specialty-product/#comment-59880 Tue, 06 Aug 2013 11:39:50 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=40109#comment-59880 The old Duel Decks (Elves vs Goblin & Angels vs Demons) would like to have a word with you 🙂

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