Thank you for the thoughtful response! The PT made writing this article very challenging exactly for the reasons you stated: the numbers I use for analysis work very well in a sort of MTGO-only kind of bubble, but may struggle with wild swings in the metagame. I’m glad I recorded my thoughts on Sunday when I wrote this, because now it gives me the opportunity to reflect on how things have changed since, and learn a few lessons!

Maybe later today when I have a moment I’ll comment updated numbers for the 4 cards listed, and see how things have progressed over the past couple days. I’m at the point where I have good numbers, I just need to figure out how to effectively use them, and that’s an area where feedback like yours is incredibly valuable!

Clearly the PT shook things up compare to what we know/though 2 weeks before.

I would bring another point that is more specific to Mtgo and that maybe confused things: during any new set release events prices all over Mtgo go down a little bit.

Here we have 3 things mixed together that affect prices of cards:

– The PT, which increase prices of “new” cards and decrease prices of “disappointing” cards.

– The pre-existing Metagame as we knew it for 2-3 weeks as that drove the prices of some cards (UW and mono red for instance)

– THS release event that drives prices down whatever happen.

For instance, Chandra’s Phoenix was on a nice up trend before the PT. It did not see much play at the PT (almost as expected, as aggro and mono red decks are known not be favorite of the pro when a alternative exists). The “problem” is we don’t really know if THS events and/or/ the PT results contributed to a decrease of the Phoenix price.

At the opposite of the PT, mono red and aggro decks are favorite decks for Mtgo players: cheap, easy and good enough to win.

Chandra’s Phoenix is already back to 2.00 Tix on buying list (mtgotraders was 2.02 at some point yesterday)

My point is, in “normal” conditions your 2 stats are certainly useful, but when multiple events that can influence the price occur, how to adjust your decision. To which extent the decrease in price of the Phoenix was due to the PT? or THS events? or people disregarding mono red?

I was close to sell my Phoenix after the PT results, but thinking about all the parameters I mentioned I delayed my decision, with the “happy ending” we know now (phoenix back on track). I still think it can reach 3+ Tix.