Thanks! Yeah, to some extent it is a self-fulfillin prophecy, but it’s one that takes the entire playerbase to fulfill, not just speculators. After all, if the game at large decides Twin warrants $10, copies under that will be bought. If, like Obliterator, the price spikes high but has nothing to back it up, everyone wants to sell their copies instead of pick more up. At some point, “Prophecy” simply becomes what the market will support, not what we as speculators want it to be.

Nice to hear, thanks 🙂

What I find interesting about the “realness” of spec targets is that it’s kind of self-fulfilling. I traded into some Obliterators when it was still around 15, and I’ve had my position in Splinter Twin for a while now, but I would be more likely to sell Obliterator into the spikes, because I honestly believe Twin could go higher and is a legitimate Modern staple, whereas I have little evidence to say the same for Obliterator. If many others feel the same way I do, then it’s no surprise the new price sticks because not as many people are actually panic selling their copies to make a profit and trying to undercut other sellers.

Karn is a 3-4 of in Modern Tron. Also, got a list for the Legacy version of MBD?

It’s just groupthink coupled with someone deciding they wanted to buy it out. I don’t get it. Hell, If the deck takes off there could be more money in Geralf’s Messengers at this point. It’s just weird.

nykthos and grey merchant have made monoblack something that new players can try to make in modern ..with obliterator being one of the older cards in the deck it stands to reason the price will go up,considering the card ( obliterator) has been held up largely by casual demand up to about 13-15 bucks..i actually liked the card as a buy at 13-15 but not at 20 and above. trade is another story though..because if this card starts to win even a little bit it becomes a 30-35 dollar card very fast,and i think we will start to see it in more lists. mbd and maybe even the domri builds. the reason the card is as close to karn as it is is because most decks playing karn are doing it as a one or two of and casual appeal (for whatever reason) is much higher with obliterator and he’s a 3 -4 of in a developing modern deck.

Are we trotting out the ‘this creature is weak to spot removal’ fallacy? 😉

Also, last year, Flores built a Domri Rade deck featuring Obliterator and Demigod of Revenge, indicating to me that there’s room for innovating outside of Mono black. But I agree, at this point, there’s no substantial evidence this card will be used in a deck that is a top archetype. Lots of hype, no results yet. Fortunately, with the return of DEs and PEs, we’ll be getting better data soon from MTGO.

You hit the nail on the head. It’s not a terrible threat and it’s decently costed, but the fact that it is 4 black means that in all honesty only one deck is going to play it…a Mono-black one, which didn’t exist last modern season so it’s hard to say how good it would be. Modern is similar to legacy in that it has a massive card pool and most decks like to splash in order to use the best cards available, any mono colored themed deck chooses not to enjoy that luxury. And Path to Exile is still the defacto removal spell of choice in modern (just like StP is in Legacy) and Obliterator isn’t too good against path.