I feel every buyout/spike is fueled by one catalyst or another and it’s valuable to understand at least what that catalyst was. I agree there could be a dozen other “Norin the Wary” type spikes and Norin just got lucky. But the bottom line is that staying on top of the market by participating in the forums gives you slightly faster information than otherwise.

That’s how I was able to buy a dozen copies of Norin on TCG Player for $1 each, only to sell sets for nearly $10 each on eBay. Doesn’t matter if this could have been Saffi or some other card – it was Norin this time, and the forums alerted me to the trend. I acted (with minimal risk, since $13 wasn’t much of an investment) and was rewarded for my decisiveness.

When it comes to irrational spikes, it’s not about predicting the future as much as it is being one of the first to react to information. I agree this whole speculation thing is a dangerous game when it comes to sketchy buyouts, so there’s no harm in sitting out if you don’t see the information soon enough to make a certain profit.

Saffi Eriksdotter, Sickening Shoal, Gilded Lotus, Reveillark, Lord of the Unreal, Groundbreaker, Horobi, Teysa Orzhov Scion, and Magus of the Disk

That’s right, nothing. I just pulled out a random collection of rares from my memory, and each one of these, like Summoner’s Egg, has something of a 0.05% chance of spawning a fringe deck in Modern. There are hundreds of cards at this level! Unless you are the one who would brew a really good Saffi deck and secretly playtest with your friend, against many serious Modern decks and manage to win a good share of games… How the hell could you have predicted this kind of spikes beforehand?

My personal belief is that if you couldn’t have foreseen a spike in all circumstances, then it isn’t even worth mentioning. If you missed a spike like Desecration Demon, there is something to learn. Not so much with Norin.

Everyone has their own level of risk tolerance. I only bought 12 Norins personally, and only because they were a buck each. I missed out on more profits for sure, but I also didn’t want to be stuck holding these after all the hype passes. I don’t believe in Norin, personally, so I didn’t go deeper.

Something like Inkmoth Nexus I do believe in, so if a buyout were to occur there I would seek greater quantities if the price was right and I’d be inclined to expect the price to remain higher (for example).

You hit the nail on the head, David! People need to be ok with missing out on some opportunities. Nobody’s perfect, and nobody can fault you for questioning some activity and deciding to sit on the sidelines once in a while for safety. After all, we are dealing with real money here.

In some ways it sucks. But it does mean I “miss out” on spikes like that.