Comments on: Insider: When to Hold ’em, When to Fold ’em https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/02/insider-when-to-hold-em-when-to-fold-em/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Tue, 18 Jan 2022 02:37:34 +0000 hourly 1 By: Mathieu Malecot https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/02/insider-when-to-hold-em-when-to-fold-em/#comment-84277 Mon, 03 Mar 2014 05:25:55 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=43922#comment-84277 I have no problem moving my teferis, and yeah it is a sell as a sb card. I cannot get behind the logic of “safe” legacy staples, but you know that asbi have sold them on the cheap to you many times. Legacy will die without a change in reprint policy. Too many players too little along the lines of mana base. PS : wizards is all over modern. The remand reprint is the latest along the lines of modern masters price controls they imploy to keep the format accessible.

Shocks might not be appreciating in price but I am lining up a 250 $ sale at tcg prices for these things, and they continue to fly out of my binder. Demand and relatively cheap prices for land base = growing format.

Legacy is more fun, but modern without deathrite is making up ground quickly. For me, legacy is useful in trying to predict what is undervalued, overplayed and/or overpowered. Deathrite banning seemed obvious even if I could never have guessed how it leaving modern would effect the meta. Meanwhile, cards like pgantasmal image and izzet charm are under reoresented in modern for now but will see more play as the format gets its own true name/baleful strix. Rug delver in modern already took notice of the charm.

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By: David Schumann https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/02/insider-when-to-hold-em-when-to-fold-em/#comment-83953 Thu, 27 Feb 2014 03:13:52 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=43922#comment-83953 In reply to Mark pomerantz.

I will admit that I was the most on the fence about tec. edge…but just because it can fit into lots of decks..doesn’t mean they will just throw it in…the price isn’t so out of hand that WoTC would feel the need to include it..

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By: Mark pomerantz https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/02/insider-when-to-hold-em-when-to-fold-em/#comment-83881 Wed, 26 Feb 2014 23:26:25 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=43922#comment-83881 I’d have to call a Tec edge a fold em . It already quadrupled up… And is a very likely candidate for the event deck since it can go in any deck

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By: David Schumann https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/02/insider-when-to-hold-em-when-to-fold-em/#comment-83842 Wed, 26 Feb 2014 22:12:52 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=43922#comment-83842 In reply to chinesebeast69.

Original thoughtseize’s haven’t dropped to 15…sure they took a big hit, but they are still closer to $30-40. There’s a huge difference in what a mass reprint does (i.e. printed in a standard legal set) and a smaller reprint (event deck, duel deck, modern masters, commander product) does because the # added to the supply is drastically different. The beauty there is that it’s rare that a card as powerful as Tarmogoyf/Dark Confidant could be reprinted in a standard legal set. Thoughtseize/Mutavault are fine on their own but they can be put into just about any set without throwing it’s power level through the roof. Thus I tend to avoid speculating on cards which are good at what they do, but can fill set voids like that in order for WoTC to help reduce the secondary market costs for modern players.

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By: Jason CHurch https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/02/insider-when-to-hold-em-when-to-fold-em/#comment-83769 Wed, 26 Feb 2014 19:54:40 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=43922#comment-83769 Yup, couldn’t agree more with your words and your choices.

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By: chinesebeast69 https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/02/insider-when-to-hold-em-when-to-fold-em/#comment-83757 Wed, 26 Feb 2014 19:40:41 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=43922#comment-83757 actually man great points.

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By: chinesebeast69 https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/02/insider-when-to-hold-em-when-to-fold-em/#comment-83756 Wed, 26 Feb 2014 19:39:51 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=43922#comment-83756 thats a very great point, can you link me back to that article?, i just have a fear that the even deck can cause a thoughtseize effect, 70 dollar card to 15.

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By: David Schumann https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/02/insider-when-to-hold-em-when-to-fold-em/#comment-83642 Wed, 26 Feb 2014 15:01:03 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=43922#comment-83642 In reply to chinesebeast69.

Well to be 100% fair…WoTC CAN reprint anything (not on the reserved list) at any time for whatever reason…they choose not to for the most part because they understand that Magic cards need to maintain values on the secondary market or else people won’t feel as safe buying them (whether it be via secondary retailers or packs). That being said, they are showing a desire to keep modern affordable and they are willing to reprint the cards that they feel are getting out of hand, though they clearly are doing so from a very conservative point of view (Tarmogoyf/Dark Confidant/Vendilion Clique @ mythic, Thoughtseize kept it’s rarity, Mutavault kept it’s rarity, and only 1 copy of remand in the duel deck (when it could have easily been 2-4)). You will ALWAYS have the risk of reprint affecting your cards value, however, the good news is that (in one of my previous articles) I determined the typical value drop with a major reprinting was only around 27% (though it varied by card…one’s that used to be powerful and now are much more tame had a higher drop, whereas, one’s that are still just as powerful were a lesser drop). That being said, modern season hasn’t even “officially” begun, so any price drops caused by reprint (esp. from non-standard reprints) will likely be mitigated by increased demand for the modern season.

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By: David Schumann https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/02/insider-when-to-hold-em-when-to-fold-em/#comment-83640 Wed, 26 Feb 2014 14:55:36 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=43922#comment-83640 In reply to Sigmund Ausfresser.

Well to be fair..the official modern PTQ season hasn’t begun yet (that starts in like June or so)..though given we had PT:Valencia and GP Richmond which consist(ed) of modern it appears that the whole “shifting the PTQ season back” attempt by WoTC didn’t really work. I do agree that Inkmoth Nexus’s promise is not looking all that spectacular anymore. Celestial Colonade has taken over as the “man-land of choice” now and Affinity didn’t put up good results at PT:Valencia. It’s still a powerful deck, but like Storm/Dredge in Legacy…the cards that hose it..do so really well and are plentiful. Inkmoth will get a bump when people start shifting their boards to focus on the main decks of modern and then it’ll do well and jump back on everybody’s radar. I do believe that it’s nearing it’s peak of demand and I wouldn’t invest much more into them for now.

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By: chinesebeast69 https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/02/insider-when-to-hold-em-when-to-fold-em/#comment-83571 Wed, 26 Feb 2014 13:07:36 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=43922#comment-83571 I completely agree, but when do you know it’s time to fold card to a fear or reprint because we have the modern event deck and possible reprints in conspiracy?

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/02/insider-when-to-hold-em-when-to-fold-em/#comment-83566 Wed, 26 Feb 2014 13:01:10 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=43922#comment-83566 How do you feel about Inkmoth Nexus? I’ve sold a couple sets but am still sitting on a couple more. Not sure what upside is left for this PTQ season, but also don’t know if there’s anything else worth buying into here?

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By: David Schumann https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/02/insider-when-to-hold-em-when-to-fold-em/#comment-83554 Wed, 26 Feb 2014 12:49:01 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=43922#comment-83554 In reply to chinesebeast69.

Honestly…cards that creep up slowly are cards that are showing continuous increasing demand….thus they are not spikes. They are certainly not cards to just unload because you fear a price drop. Now that the Jace vs Vraska decklist is out everything but Remand appears to be safe for the moment (though we don’t know how many Remands you’ll get in the deck yet).

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By: chinesebeast69 https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/02/insider-when-to-hold-em-when-to-fold-em/#comment-83523 Wed, 26 Feb 2014 12:02:55 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=43922#comment-83523 Great Article. What is you opinion on the other big cards of the format, mainly, Liliana, Fetchlands, Geist, Griselbrand, Cavern of Souls, etc. who have slowly climbed recently, which is a fold’ em and which is a hold’em? What about Creeping Tar Pit?, is that a price correction?

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