I don’t think you’re wrong – necessarily. The question is having the right amount of demand. Right now – you’re really seeing the early adapters preparing for the upcoming format. Early adaption is still relevant in the fact that it’s just now “becoming cool” to play Modern. GP Richmond was a HUGE success in that vein to give Modern legitimacy. Something that it has struggled with mightily in the past.

That fact will probably kick demand into 3rd gear by time we’re really preparing for the season to come. Relative to where you are and when your PTQ’s will be, this will be even more chaotic the first weeks leading into and during the season. I feel the appropriate window is probably going to be week 2-5, but it depends on how much info comes down and how quickly. I’ll be keeping a really close eye on price fluctuations during that time period.

I love your explanation of it though. I think you get the key movers and shakers in how you talked about it. Very well put.

@Mathieu – I agree. Fortunately, Wizards is also very very cautious on the amount of product they release, it feels. Again, it just comes down to “how ahead of the curve are you?” It’s probably going to become a game of chicken amongst speculators and whoever tries to actively manipulate the market. In the end, the only loser really is the player that wants to play a certain deck.

There’s a number of factors that you have to isolate in order to deal with the model you are using. In hypothetical situations – you can use constant in the example in order to predict pricing and supply as long as the elasticity of demand stays constant. If I remember correctly this also assumes a monopolistic or very few supplier frame of reference too – which is very very far from the application we’re dealing with in the realm of the Magic Secondary market.

I’m simply trying to communicate the basic concept to understand price fluctuations as you reach & exceed the public’s “price pain threshold” on a example item. Maybe in that context it makes more sense

And thanks @SicksEyeUrn – that was more the application I had in mind when referencing that. It was more the application of cause and effect when speaking of the price point for Magic cards

There’s a number of factors that you have to isolate in order to deal with the model you are using. In hypothetical situations – you can use constant in the example in order to predict pricing and supply as long as the elasticity of demand stays constant. If I remember correctly this also assumes a monopolistic or very few supplier frame of reference too – which is very very far from the application we’re dealing with in the realm of the Magic Secondary market.

I’m simply trying to communicate the basic concept to understand price fluctuations as you reach & exceed the public’s “price pain threshold” on a example item. Maybe in that context it makes more sense

No worries on the nitpick. I think Wizards likes to not make that differentiation. I’ve heard Modern referred to as an Eternal format pretty consistently but honestly – it’s all about stability in your investment. That’s all that really matters. So, whatever it’s considered – as long as it’s “forever” that’s all I’m concerned with.

Thank you, as well, for the kind words.

Couldn’t have said it better – there really is no “wrong time” just a time that you could either make more/less than before. I like where you’re head is at. 🙂

Thanks for the kind words, David. Much appreciated. I’m going to try to keep the balance of advanced concepts and basics when I write for my column. It’s much appreciated for the feedback.

After the Pro Tour, we entered a different phase. Demand is coming from players (high), dealers gearing up for the season (high), and not so savvy speculators trying to ride the wave(high). Supply is coming from dealers (low) and other sellers (low). The key here is that speculators are holding on to their copies in the hopes that cards that have gone up or spiked will go up more when the season hits.

As we get closer to the season, lets look how things might change. Demand will come from players (high), dealers (low), but not speculators. Supply will come from dealers (medium), and all those speculators looking to out their cards (high). My opinion is that the demand from players will not be as high as the supply from speculators. I think that price memory will keep modern cards where they are, but I don’t see the staples going up much between now and modern season. If they aren’t going up or have a chance to go down, it is time to sell so we can put money into other areas.

Any thoughts or things I am forgetting?

Marc

Anthony, while I do expect demand to increase and the Modern format to grow I also know retailers are actively manipulating on the supply side. This makes me very cautious

The increased rise of modern has definitely created an interesting time for us. Here’s hoping wizards can keep the modern demand up without over printing the cards that havent risen yet while printing the cards that have started to spike after we bought in.

Price influences quantity demanded which is the basis of price elasticity of demand. He simply used the word demand in the place of quantity demanded as he is speaking to real world cause / effect. E.g. if Tarmagoyf went to $400 people would still want it as much but would afford to only be able to purchase a smaller number, effectively reducing the global quantity demanded, (i.e. ‘demand’).

Also, price for a good will never be a factor in the movement of a supply curve.

This is the time to step back and understand our own personal goals in this space. For me, I hope to make money on Magic to support my son’s eventual college education. Therefore if I don’t sell at the peak, I’m not unhappy. As long as I’m making money, I’m approaching my goal – and let’s face it, it’s not like we’re going to run out of profitable opportunities. So what you sold out of Tarmogoyf too soon? Go buy 100 Chokes and then ride that wave for a month or two. You’ll make money somehow regardless.