Comments on: Insider: Modern Drift and Power Shift https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/insider-modern-drift-and-power-shift/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Tue, 18 Jan 2022 02:35:20 +0000 hourly 1 By: Aregand https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/insider-modern-drift-and-power-shift/#comment-105337 Wed, 28 May 2014 11:27:59 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=47547#comment-105337 In reply to Tu Ta.

Send me a pic!

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By: Tu Ta https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/insider-modern-drift-and-power-shift/#comment-104761 Tue, 27 May 2014 02:40:21 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=47547#comment-104761 In reply to Aregand.

Good luck with the upgrade! I completed this quest about 2 years ago and just recently got everything graded. Too bad the Emerald came back a 6 (don’t know how) so I’m in the market to upgrade that one.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/insider-modern-drift-and-power-shift/#comment-104692 Mon, 26 May 2014 20:05:01 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=47547#comment-104692 In reply to Aregand.

Especially to this market, where so few copies are readily available on the market at any given time. I am certainly motivated to pick up a couple pieces of Power now simply out of fear that these get even more expensive and price me out altogether. I won’t be able to play with them, but I still think they are smart investments and I am happy to have Vintage be a part of my portfolio.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/insider-modern-drift-and-power-shift/#comment-104691 Mon, 26 May 2014 20:03:26 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=47547#comment-104691 In reply to Sam.

Sam,

Thanks for the kind words! So far I have picked up all of 1 MP Mox Pearl. My bankroll is not as large as others, and I have a bunch of funds tied up in sealed Booster Boxes right now. Hoping to get a move on those soon though, and I hope to pick up a couple more Moxen. That should be enough exposure for now.

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By: Sam https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/insider-modern-drift-and-power-shift/#comment-104662 Mon, 26 May 2014 17:36:39 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=47547#comment-104662 In reply to Sigmund Ausfresser.

Yeah, maybe someone with rather deep pockets (>100k) looking to corner the market bought most of the available power and then players picked up the rest. I wonder how much power was on the market at any one time during the last year. Also, the price of power was pretty much stagnant for the past several years, which likely contributes to the unwillingness of those holding extra power to sell it right now.

I would have bought some power myself, but I don’t have anywhere to play vintage, nor have the bankroll to pick up a full set. Re your article, great read.

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By: Aregand https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/insider-modern-drift-and-power-shift/#comment-104651 Mon, 26 May 2014 17:10:25 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=47547#comment-104651 In reply to Tu Ta.

I had a P9 playset of Unlimited and have been slowly trying to upgrade to Beta. I suspect others are doing similar. Also with such a small volume available I wonder if a slightly higher percentage was sent for grading or some sellers just pulled cards waiting to see if they would go up. All factors ever how small or few could contribute.

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By: Tu Ta https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/insider-modern-drift-and-power-shift/#comment-104646 Mon, 26 May 2014 16:51:38 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=47547#comment-104646 I don’t think there is any particular “group” of people that are “Debeersing” the P9. I acquired 14 pieces in the past 2 months, but only after I heard so many people saying that they are looking to complete their P9 set in the last 3-4 months. The release of Vintage Masters on MTGO is definitely driving interest in paper. Plus a lot of people, me included, are older and have more disposable income or would like to consolidate their collections into these iconic pieces. Furthermore, the price increases on Modern, and subsequently Legacy, staples have also allow people to buy these easier.

And Aregand is right, I am also looking at Time Vault, Workshop, Bazaar, Library, Mana Drain, and Mana Crypt as other major pieces that will see a bump sooner or later.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/insider-modern-drift-and-power-shift/#comment-104643 Mon, 26 May 2014 16:29:00 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=47547#comment-104643 In reply to Sam.

Sam,

I think your argument is absolutely true. I firmly believe in the trickle up effect, driving prices of power and the like significantly higher. As Aregand said, even Pseudo-Power cards like Tabernacle, Bazaar, Library etc. have all been on a rapid incline too. Surely the rising tide is raising all ships.

I only speculate on the conspiracy portion because of some conversations I’ve had/seen over the past couple months. I hear about a massive buyout of Power from SCG at a recent event, then I hear consistent rumors on Twitter, then I notice SCG has virtually no Power in stock (though I’ve been alerted that ABU Games has a decent stock). After hearing a rumor three or four times from different sources, one starts to believe said rumors know what I mean? By no means am I stepping out and calling shenanigans and conspiracy, but I could easily believe the possibility.

Vintage Masters driving up interest in Paper Vintage could also be a culprit here. But savvy speculators could be hoarding a few extra pieces of Power in anticipation of further increases – perhaps not a concerted effort to control the market but a group of wise investors hoping to make significant returns on their investment?

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/insider-modern-drift-and-power-shift/#comment-104641 Mon, 26 May 2014 16:23:22 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=47547#comment-104641 In reply to Aregand.

This is very true and a terrific add! I think there’s always something to be said about the icon-status of Power. But anything in the triple digits on the Reserved List could easily qualify. Tabernacle, Moat, and Candelabra have the added advantage of being Legacy playable.

Thanks for the comment!

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By: Sam https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/insider-modern-drift-and-power-shift/#comment-104632 Mon, 26 May 2014 15:56:35 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=47547#comment-104632 I’m not sure that I buy the ‘conspiracy’ argument for power disappearing. While it is theoretically possible, there may be a more parsimonious explanation. I haven’t read everything on the site so please forgive me if I restate what others have already said.

Many members on this site (and other sites) have discussed buylisting into multiple pieces of power. This was made possible by the huge increase in the ‘value’ of the secondary market over the past couple years when fetches went from $30 to $100. Many players jumped when they realized that they could sell one or two modern re-printable fetches and buy an ABUR dual. This triggered the rise in duals that we saw last month. At the same time, the more savvy investors were able to unload their fetches for moxes. It is crazy to think about, but you could have sold a playset of misties and tarns for ~$600 and bought a decent condition Mox. My theory is that whenever you have a market which grows in value significantly, as did the MTG secondary market thanks to the increase in the value of Modern cards, you’ll see a trickle-up effect where the expensive cards get more expensive.

Regarding the availability of power, has it ever been widely available online? Have there been ~500+ pieces of power available at one time? If not, then >50 people looking to purchase full sets of power would deplete the available supply. Also, there it little to no incentive to sell any power now, save a financial emergency, as waiting a month will allow you to list and sell your cards for a lot more money. Perhaps there was a conspiracy, but it could also have been a lot of people who had the same good idea at the same time and were a bit ahead of the curve. I would argue that the depletion of power is a direct effect of the modern price explosion. The addition of so much value to the secondary market lowered the effective cost of luxury goods (power) for those who were already heavily invested in the secondary market.

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By: Aregand https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/insider-modern-drift-and-power-shift/#comment-104584 Mon, 26 May 2014 12:43:49 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=47547#comment-104584 What about the new power- cards nearly as scarce and needed for Vintage and\or Legacy. Time Vault, Mishra’s Workshop, Bazaar of Baghdad, Library of Alexandria and Tabernacle of Pendrell Vale seem like easy inclusions. Candlelabra of Tawnos? These are basically following the same trend as the P9.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/insider-modern-drift-and-power-shift/#comment-104578 Mon, 26 May 2014 12:07:25 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=47547#comment-104578 In reply to phyrexian trader.

It’s very possible that both markets are approaching a natural equilibrium. But with Modern PTQ season just around the corner, I know Modern cards will go higher – especially since all the reprints in advance of the season are a known entity.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/insider-modern-drift-and-power-shift/#comment-104577 Mon, 26 May 2014 12:06:27 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=47547#comment-104577 In reply to marten.

Good to know! You think this is a long term trend of sorts? I may do the same. Or how sweet would a collection be? 1 of each foil!

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By: phyrexian trader https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/insider-modern-drift-and-power-shift/#comment-104574 Mon, 26 May 2014 11:59:01 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=47547#comment-104574 If I look at the EU prices of modern cards, I see them slowly going up.

my theory is that both markets have now time to reach a balance.

Locally, Modern is very hot, and people are trading all they can for their modern cards!

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By: marten https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/insider-modern-drift-and-power-shift/#comment-104544 Mon, 26 May 2014 09:42:57 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=47547#comment-104544 On your last sigbit, I’ll trade for almost any foil enchantment creature because of the pretty border

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