Comments on: Insider: Two Topics to Ponder – Standard Trends and Thoughtseize as Stock https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/11/insider-two-topics-to-ponder-standard-trends-and-thoughtseize-as-stock/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Tue, 18 Jan 2022 02:31:05 +0000 hourly 1 By: Shoey https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/11/insider-two-topics-to-ponder-standard-trends-and-thoughtseize-as-stock/#comment-248071 Wed, 05 Nov 2014 00:29:12 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=53222#comment-248071 What’s your thoughts on portfolio and risk management techniques as a logical next step to MTG analysis? For example since there are already Indices that exist for Standard, Modern and Legacy staples, perhaps it could be possible to quantitatively evaluate cards in terms of their alphas, betas and correlations? It would probably suit more of a long term holding strategy for eternal staples.

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By: David Schumann https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/11/insider-two-topics-to-ponder-standard-trends-and-thoughtseize-as-stock/#comment-245309 Mon, 03 Nov 2014 19:42:50 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=53222#comment-245309 In reply to Sigmund Ausfresser.

The only problem I see there…is that what decks are playing Damnation in modern now? The only one I can think of is Gifts control and even then it’s a 1 of. If U/R Delver continues to increase as an overall % of the modern metagame I’d question how much damnation will really see play…I know they don’t play any truly hard counters currently…but just spell pierce and remand can slow your wrath effect down long enough to kill you….I actually think Damnation is an easy sell right now.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/11/insider-two-topics-to-ponder-standard-trends-and-thoughtseize-as-stock/#comment-245177 Mon, 03 Nov 2014 18:23:17 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=53222#comment-245177 In reply to Justin.

Justin,

It would appear you are correct. There was no Damnation in the new Commander deck (which was to my surprise) and I don’t see it in Standard for a while. So if you’re sitting on some copies, it won’t hurt you to hold. I just don’t know what upside remains in the near term at these price levels, you know? I think the money could give you better returns elsewhere, but if Damnation is your choice for a steady stalwart card, I don’t think you’ll lose out for a while.

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/11/insider-two-topics-to-ponder-standard-trends-and-thoughtseize-as-stock/#comment-245174 Mon, 03 Nov 2014 18:21:50 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=53222#comment-245174 In reply to Colt Mitchell.

Hi Colt,

Thanks for the kind words! I know I kind of deviated a bit from my traditional article formulas, but I truly feel the way I indicated. To me, Magic Cards are like investments and they compete with real life stocks for my cash. Therefore it is perfectly reasonable for me to treat them as such. And when I have a blue chip stock rise rapidly, I know it’s time to trim back the position because upside in the short term is limited from here!

Old faithfuls of sorts should definitely be a part of anyone’s portfolio if they are looking to invest in Magic. 🙂

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By: Sigmund Ausfresser https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/11/insider-two-topics-to-ponder-standard-trends-and-thoughtseize-as-stock/#comment-245169 Mon, 03 Nov 2014 18:20:01 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=53222#comment-245169 In reply to Derek Madlem.

LOL I just saw your article title. Look forward to reading it. 🙂 I get the sense it will not differ in opinion based on the title.

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By: Justin https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/11/insider-two-topics-to-ponder-standard-trends-and-thoughtseize-as-stock/#comment-245166 Mon, 03 Nov 2014 18:19:07 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=53222#comment-245166 Based on the 5CC black wrath spoiled from Fate Reforged, I think it’s safe to say that we won’t see Damnation in the next set (and probably not the entire block). My guess is MM2 at the earliest, unless WotC decides to head back to 4CC wraths before then.

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By: Colt Mitchell https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/11/insider-two-topics-to-ponder-standard-trends-and-thoughtseize-as-stock/#comment-244991 Mon, 03 Nov 2014 16:24:54 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=53222#comment-244991 Interesting article. It’s true that Standard prices are tanking seemingly quickly, making speccing on current standard cards much less reliant. Your thoughtseize example is a good reminder to keep some “old faithfulls” in our portfolios.

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By: Derek Madlem https://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/11/insider-two-topics-to-ponder-standard-trends-and-thoughtseize-as-stock/#comment-244718 Mon, 03 Nov 2014 13:15:32 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=53222#comment-244718 Maybe all the Standard cards just have Ebola …

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