Charles,

I really appreciate your thoughtful rebuttal. By no means do I think I’ve solved the equation. The relationship just seemed a bit coincidental to me is all. With the Magic Card market there are so many factors: metagame shifts, tournament support, new set success, etc. etc. To think that currency FX could be a large factor would be way too short-sighted.

I hear a lot about how strong the Vintage scene is in Europe. Part of the reason Vintage was so popular in Europe could be related to the strength in the Euro. As you pointed out, the domestic market is fairly large. Perhaps players overseas took advantage of their stronger currencies to acquire Power and Duals at a cheaper price. I’d be curious to learn if there’s been a reversal in this trend, where cards like Moxen and Duals are more likely to go in the opposite direction. Even a small increase in supply from Europe could be enough to move prices measurably.

Alas, there are too many interfering factors to say for certain. I merely noticed the correlation and wondered if there was something to it via this article. Naturally there is no 100% right or wrong answer, and I always encourage dialogue in the comments section of my articles :).

Thanks again!

Great build! Appreciate the comment – I want to say the USD is very strong vs. the Yen historically speaking as well. Japan has been struggling a bit lately. So this could compound the effect.

Yeah, true. But if you look, a lot of cards began their decline a bit earlier this year. Underground Sea appears to have peaked in August, and drifted downward throughout all of the fall. What really surprised me was the Standard charts. I know the PTQ season wasn’t Standard, but I was shocked to see Standard all-stars plummet in price despite being very strong post-rotation. Sylvan Caryatid is everywhere in Standard, yet the price has done nothing but drop since late October.

You’re absolutely right in pointing out the seasonality – I’m merely presenting another possible factor. 🙂

Thanks, Doug! I REALLY enjoyed writing this one, and I actually think I’m onto something here. This isn’t just filler, either. I honestly think there is a legitimate correlation here. And I love incorporating “RL Finance” into my articles when I can!

Moreover it is not at all clear that global gold and silver price movements have a causal relationship to dollar strength, but that’s more of an ideological debate.

Following your commodity point, commodities often become very much dislocated from currency valuation movements due to “real market” factors. Correlation coefficients to the dollar vary and can seem ludicrously unimportant when, say, drought strikes grain or Saudi Arabia decides to stop defending $100/bbl crude. While it’s certainly worthwhile to be aware of the currency markets I’d say the fundamental drivers of a given magic card’s value are found far from the FX desks in New York and reside in Renton.