Comments on: Insider: Time to Think About Selling Out https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/02/insider-time-to-think-about-selling-out/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Tue, 18 Jan 2022 02:27:03 +0000 hourly 1 By: Derek Madlem https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/02/insider-time-to-think-about-selling-out/#comment-422638 Sun, 22 Feb 2015 14:59:56 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=57015#comment-422638 In reply to Waffleophagus.

Courser and Brimaz both have applications in Modern, but these cards have already fallen from highs of $20 and $35, thinking that they won’t take a further hit once rotation comes is not something I can do. Just take a look at Voice of Resurgence for a good price comparison to Brimaz … with one exception: Voice was played in one of the most powerful decks in Modern, Brimaz is not.

As for Courser, the recent “Clash Pack” reprint puts downward pressure on this card as well as the simple truth that almost everything takes a hit when it rotates. EVERYTHING. In Magic liquidity ( high demand) is important for card prices, Courser is playable in Modern but doesn’t really have a place yet and favors a style of play that isn’t really what people do in Modern – durdling around.

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By: Derek Madlem https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/02/insider-time-to-think-about-selling-out/#comment-422635 Sun, 22 Feb 2015 14:54:39 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=57015#comment-422635 In reply to Lewis Brook.

Cards like Keranos that get their price bump solely from Modern often get held onto by people while they are in Standard. “If it’s good enough for modern, then I’ll probably need it for standard” being the mindset that people hold onto it for. As people realize the decks they would play Keranos in Modern are nothing like the decks they would pilot in Standard, they get rid of it.

Also, everything is going to take SOME hit, judging whether or not that convenience fee is worth it is going to be up to you. I’m not huge on Keranos (outside of FOIL printings).

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By: Derek Madlem https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/02/insider-time-to-think-about-selling-out/#comment-422632 Sun, 22 Feb 2015 14:51:54 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=57015#comment-422632 In reply to Ben Roome.

My thought is that it’s an EDH favorite and has now been heavily printed thanks to the Core Set, Wizards has made it clear that it is reprintable and I feel like it’s going to go the way of Life from the Loam … reprinted into oblivion

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By: Waffleophagus https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/02/insider-time-to-think-about-selling-out/#comment-421207 Thu, 19 Feb 2015 19:31:07 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=57015#comment-421207 Really? Courser of Kruphix definitely has applications in modern, I’d say about the same for Brimaz, but I think less than Courser. Outside of that and Urborg, I completely agree.

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By: ExpletiveDelete https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/02/insider-time-to-think-about-selling-out/#comment-420176 Wed, 18 Feb 2015 12:48:51 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=57015#comment-420176 In reply to Ben Roome.

Agreed

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By: jesse williams https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/02/insider-time-to-think-about-selling-out/#comment-419967 Wed, 18 Feb 2015 05:45:07 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=57015#comment-419967 In reply to Blake.

Journey temples in foil should hold value. Journey was all but unopened. Foil Mana Confluence is in the same boat.

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By: Lewis Brook https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/02/insider-time-to-think-about-selling-out/#comment-419694 Tue, 17 Feb 2015 21:40:29 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=57015#comment-419694 Isn’t Keranos’ price being held up by Modern playability. It hasn’t seen play in a while except for in some sideboards, but I believe that is what caused the price jump in the first place. And it doesn’t really see any standard play currently.

Thoughts?

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By: Ben Roome https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/02/insider-time-to-think-about-selling-out/#comment-419149 Tue, 17 Feb 2015 05:09:04 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=57015#comment-419149 I agree with everything except your call on Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth. This is a modern and legacy playable card with an extremely high price history. I don’t see it tanking on rotation as people will be keeping their copies for eternal decks. Thoughts?

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By: Derek Madlem https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/02/insider-time-to-think-about-selling-out/#comment-418971 Tue, 17 Feb 2015 00:00:19 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=57015#comment-418971 In reply to Becvar.

Thanks Becvar,
Obviously we would love a world where we are instantly able to evaluate our needs for the next year and solve the metagame right at rotation, but most of us are unable to do that.

Locking into a single deck for twelve months is pretty hard to do in an unsettled metagame, the idea of the article is more of a “last chance” than a “best opportunity.”

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By: Derek Madlem https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/02/insider-time-to-think-about-selling-out/#comment-418969 Mon, 16 Feb 2015 23:54:29 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=57015#comment-418969 In reply to JP.

This is why I mentioned that trading is always going to preferable to buylisting and rebuying … there are very few cards that I ever recommend buylisting.

I also mentioned exactly this same scenario in the article, short selling is often not going to be worth the hassle on cards that you’re looking to keep long term.

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By: Derek Madlem https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/02/insider-time-to-think-about-selling-out/#comment-418964 Mon, 16 Feb 2015 23:50:19 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=57015#comment-418964 In reply to Blake.

I really don’t know where to put foils post rotation, there was a ton of Theros opened so there will be ample supply. They will obviously take a hit at rotation, but there isn’t much precedent for rare standard dual lands that are all but unplayable in Modern.

The other thing to factor in is price memory, these cards may just hold their value because nobody is willing to accept that they are worth less …

So honestly: I have no idea

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By: Becvar https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/02/insider-time-to-think-about-selling-out/#comment-418811 Mon, 16 Feb 2015 20:02:33 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=57015#comment-418811 The one thing I think you could have elaborated on is that the absolute best time to sell your cards is at rotation (Theros when RTR rotated out, Khans when Theros rotates out, etc.) since as you said prices jump then every single time then go nowhere but down. You can apply the same concepts of “Im going to play UB mainly, so ship everything else” then as well, since there is still time to sell after the first tourney or 2. But outside of that, fully agree with everything, and a good article. Nice to see someone else getting it.

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By: JP https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/02/insider-time-to-think-about-selling-out/#comment-418807 Mon, 16 Feb 2015 19:53:26 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=57015#comment-418807 I’m pretty okay with holding onto my copies of Keranos. It’s the only god that has seen play outside of standard (and casual formats like EDH), and it seems like a card that could go into a lot of modern UR sideboards going forward. His higher-than-average price tag certainly isn’t coming from standard. If you do a search for “keranos, god of storms” on mtgtop8, you’ll see that the vast majority of the play he gets is in modern. His price was pretty similar to the other gods until people realized that having an indestructible enchantment as a possible wincon isn’t actually a bad place to be for decks like Splinter Twin, Scapeshift, Blue Moon, UWR control. (The Twin deck that won PT FRF had 2 copies in the board.)

In more general terms, Keranos is a mythic from an under-drafted spring set that sees play in a tier 1 modern deck. He’s no Voice of Resurgence, but it’s hard to see his price tanking come rotation. He’s not at his floor, and it might be worth trading him away for a few months, but I’m not going to bother trying to short sell; the idea of shipping him off to a buylist for $8 and then hoping you have a chance to rebuy for $8 post-rotation doesn’t seem like it has a whole lot of upside.

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By: Blake https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/02/insider-time-to-think-about-selling-out/#comment-418800 Mon, 16 Feb 2015 19:40:23 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=57015#comment-418800 Thanks for the article! I agree with your analysis on the Temples, as much as it pains me. I have to ask though, considering their Commander appeal and casual popularity, how do you feel about holding foils post-rotation?

Thanks again!

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