http://mtgstocks.com/interestsfoils

I agree that an article about the vagaries of TCG player/MTG stocks prices needs to be addressed. (I also agree this is a great article.)

Here is another example for you about the problems with TCG player/MTG stocks. High end, low volume cards not at risk of a buyout. Take a look at the price chart for Time Vault, both Beta and Unlimited. Now take a look at what TCG player has in stock. Note that there are no NM or LP versions of either card on TCG player right now. Did the demand for these cards tank 20% in a month? NO! The NM copies just got sold, causing the price average to drop to the level of Moderate play copies.

Now check the ebay prices for NM unlimited copies. Not 1 below $400, and most are at least $500. Obviously TCGmid/MTG stocks is not strictly accurate about the value of Time Vault.

I propose that it is time for a new algorithm that contains price memory on MTG stocks.

This would slow the insane spikes of some cards and help people actually gauge the real value of a card rather than the “hype” value. Display the numbers produced by the standard algorithm side by side with the “price memory balanced” algorithm and then let people decide for themselves what a card is actually worth. There would have to be lots of tweaks to this new algorithm to get it right, but I think its definitely something that needs to happen.

Selling into hype is almost always the play. Sometimes buying those last 5 copies and THEN selling into the hype is the real play and I want to make sure my readers aren’t buying after someone does that.

I notice a lot of the critical responses focus a lot on cards that are actually selling out. It’s not like there is a run on foil Hinder all of a sudden; what’s likely is that there have been 5 copies for weeks, not that there were 300 yesterday and you’re going to miss the boat if you don’t buy those 5 copies now. That analysis took about 3 seconds, so I doubt that was the difference between missing out and snagging the last five copies of a hot card.

This isn’t about being risk averse, it’s about not being a sheep and thinking for yourself. If you can reasonably deduce there were more than 5 copies yesterday, sure, buy in. But too many people use the phrase “Almost Gone” to disingenuously trigger buying behavior in the follower population and I’m urging you to exercise caution.

I’ve learned to detect spikes and use that to SELL. I accepted that I can’t profit from every spike, and it’s not smart to try to do that. If you notice a shortage, there are two options:
A) price will go up
In this case, the hype will only last a few days. Too late to sell the cards you bought just before the hype. I have some cards that raised in price, but there is just not enough demand anymore.

B) nothing will happen and you receive a bunch of stupid cards you spend money on.

Even if I have 2 successes for every failure, it’s still too much to spend my time and money on.

I rather collect craprares and see if something is spiking that is in my craprare box.

I don’t think were on the same page man. I can understand your perspective. For the average/noob speculator, you shouldn’t go deep on whatever flavor of the month crap pops up on mtgstocks, and happens to have a low supply on tcgplayer (evolving wilds, guttural response, whisper silk cloak, dead bridge chant).

But for people a little more involved in mtg finance, low supply is often the first sign that a card is about to spike and if you’re in the right place at the right time you can buy up the cheap copies and make a profit when they spike.

All depends on who your audience is I guess!

Boom. QVC’d

If you think, as you claim below, that low supply is the best metric, you sound like someone who is a follower and considers buying into hype being “involved on [sic] the trenches”. I think you should probably reread the article because there is a lot you are glossing over. You can think of 100 examples? That’s great – maybe that is why I included an entire section comprising nearly half of the article about how you need to take other factors into consideration such as how old and rare the card is instead of just running around like a chicken with their head cut off saying ” Zomg, only 5 copies” when there have been 5 copies for the last 3 months.

Time and time again, there are cards with low quantities in stock on tcgplayer. Speculators notice, buy the card out, the price spikes and then the price sticks. I understand that the cards listed on tcgplayer are just the tip of the iceberg of supply for any given card.

But I disagree with the way Jason argues in this article that low supply is something that should be brushed off as either

A. Cards in low supply because they’re old
B. Cards in low supply because there’s just not a lot out there, but there’s no increased demand for them
C. Card that someone bought out to create a frenzy and artificially spike prices

The truth is that a lot of times low supply on tcgplayer does usually indicate something. If it didn’t, then why is it that cards in low supply frequently spike soon after? Scourge of the throne was in low supply at $5. The supply isn’t so low anymore, but the price is doubled. Order of white clay was in low supply at $5 a month ago. I sold a copy at $30 yesterday.

If low supply is really “the worst metric for determining card desirability” then why do cards in low supply spike all the time and the prices stick more often than not? Low supply is the best metric.

Ironically, just today a card that was in low supply disappeared from tcgplayer. There were only 5 copies of judge foil command tower left at around $20. They’re gone now. I bet supply won’t be so low a week or month from now, but the price will be considerably higher

I think you are being overly critical and slightly missing the point. The author is not denying that the concept of “Supply and demand” is worth considering. He is claiming, basically, that your average speculator doesn’t have a full picture of the supply. This can generate the illusion of a shortage which may cause you to make some ill-advised financial decisions. He’s just cautioning against thinking you have all the information when you may not, so there’s no need to make assumptions.

I like the word of caution too on the motives of people claming a shortage exists. Hmm, what possible reason would one have to broadcast a lack of availability for a certain commodity…?

It’s also worth noting that just because there are only 5 copies left of a card on TCG Player doesn’t mean it’s nearly close to selling out. JR messaged me the name of the card he was citing on Twitter – there were, in fact, only a few MP/HP foil copies left as he stated. Except there were like 17 copies on ABU Games. Suddenly the prospect of inciting a buyout is a bit steeper because more capital needs to be committed to truly make a run on the card.

Otherwise you’re stuck holding cards you overpaid for while the rest of the market barely feels the bump because copies were available elsewhere.

Then again, it IS TCG Player that moves markets because that’s what MTG Stocks uses every day to update pricing. Perhaps this could be a good next article – the props and slops of basing an MTG economy off TCG Player. Hmmmm….