Still write it. I like your work.

I’ll be honest here, when I see someone say “dumb people get upset about card spikes” I know they don’t really get it yet.

Magic finance literally doesn’t exist without those “dumb people.” These are the people that buy your cards. These are your customers.

You should be spending all your time understanding their behavior so you can careful work within it. Players who are repeatedly on the wrong side of price spikes will eventually get sick of it and stop falling into that trap. In other words, they will become Magic financiers. Once everyone is a Magic financier, Magic finance ceases to exist.

Don’t scare the fish.

Here is another example for you about the problems with TCG player/MTG stocks. High end, low volume cards not at risk of a buyout also display inaccurate values due to the features of the TCG/MTG stocks measurement system. Take a look at the price chart for Time Vault, both Beta and Unlimited. Now take a look at what TCG player has in stock. Note that there are no NM or LP versions of either card on TCG player right now. Did the demand for these cards tank 20% in a month? No. The NM copies just got sold, causing the price average to drop to the level of Moderate play copies.

Now check the ebay prices for NM unlimited copies. Not 1 below $400, and most are at least $500. Obviously TCGmid/MTG stocks is not strictly accurate about the value of Time Vault. Just as you say in the article: non-TCG sources have different prices, but only one price signals an action in the market.

I propose that it is time for a new algorithm that contains price memory as a parameter. This measurement should also include values from other non-TCG player sources.

This would slow the insane spikes of some cards and help people actually gauge the real value of a card rather than the “hype” value. Display the numbers produced by the standard algorithm side by side with the “price memory balanced” algorithm and then let people decide for themselves what a card is actually worth. There would have to be lots of tweaks to this new algorithm to get it right, but I think its definitely something that needs to happen.

This would be the true tool to help quell the practices of market manipulation that seem to be occurring.

It’s not suboptimal finance though. Sure it’s better to buy from card shark or wherever if copies are cheaper there. But if I can buy something for $25 and sell it for $50 I’m going to do that all day everyday.

And worrying about people getting upset is not my job. I’m in it to make a profit, not to worry about whose feelings it’s going to hurt. Cheap magic cards are not an entitlement. If you can’t wait for your maralens to dip down in price then suck it up. That’s your problem. Or wizards problem, since they control the supply. But they’re in it for a profit too, so it’s your problem.

Just because “dumb people” get upset doesn’t mean we need to continue behavior that upsets them, especially when that behavior is suboptimal from a finance perspective.

No, because I made the point, twice, that if the demand is real, someone else will buy the cards on TCG Player and I made the point twice that signalling the market obscures whether the demand is real. If someone misinterprets the article that way, they are doing it willfully.

Here’s the thing. Dumb people get upset about card spikes, but what they’re really upset about is that they can’t afford all the magic cards they want. When Maralen the Mornsong spiked, people lost their minds. Why? You didn’t even know the card existed last week.

Price spikes and buyouts are only a big deal because people like you make it one. If in a year from now, command tower is still the price it is now, then it was underpriced before, and the people who bought the copies when there were only a few left to do so made a smart move. If command tower dips back down, then there you go, people can have their cheap command towers again. The market has a way of adjusting itself and finding an equilibrium, so if prices are high or low, supply and demand works it out in the long run.

So try and see the forest for the trees. Leave the freaking out about buyouts to reddit. Yes cards might spike, but if a card gets spiked and inflated for no good reason, then it will come back down to earth. If a card spikes and sticks, then it probably should have gone up in price much earlier than it did.

What do you think of pointing out fundamental trends in the QS forums? Just as bad as tweeting about low stock or is it a little better? While I certainly want to maximize profits to an extent, I also enjoy sharing my finds with others so they can also benefit.

Basically, you’re saying. If you want to manipulate the market: this is how to do it in secret…

Another thing I noticed is that the focus on TCG ignores the rest of the world. Now more than in the past, there is a connection between the markets.

Some US retailers buy cards frequently on magiccardmarket for example. I sell some cards on magiccardmarket and there is one big US shop who buys cards from me every two weeks. Enough for me to partially focus my trading strategy to that.

for some years, I use this rule to translate US related articles:
If I see a change on magiccardmarket, the change is real. If not, it’s stupid spike without any meanings. In the last case, I check whatever copies I have and sell put them for sale. There is always someone who thinks the US price jump will be followed in Europe. Mostly it doesn’t.