Exactly what you just said. It’s an excellent guideline to make an educational guess as to where prices might fall/bottom out using relevant available data.

Thanks for this write up!!

But again my point is that from a % of the population of mythics (i.e. 2/15) that went up compared to the % of the population of mythics (13/15) that went down, it seems foolish to bet that a small % of mythics going up will offset the losses from the much larger % going down. Your math is correct in that if you had 10 of each it would have been more profitable to hold all 10 then sell all 10 and rebuy, however, if you have more copies of NOT tarmogoyf/bob…then that might not be the case.

I didn’t mean for that to come off as brash or aggressive by the way. I did the original calculations too quickly (it took me about 2-3 hours to gather all my data points..and I was a bit out of it by the time I’d completed that part).

I was more thinking about it from a “hold/sell all” scenario of course.

I don’t see why it would have been foolish to hold them all in such a case? If you had 10 copies of each, selling them all around release would result in $4,145.50, while selling them later would result in $4,263.20 according.

What I am trying to say, if this set has again Tarmogoyf/Dark Confidant kind of mythics (price starts increasing iso declining) and we can’t identify upfront which ones that are, it might not be so foolish to keep them all and wait a bit to see which ones to sell.

The money you lose by selling the declining mythics later, might be more than compensated by holding on to the ones that actually will increase*.

* if we have Tarmogoyf/Dark Confidant kind of mythics of course! -> Can these cards do that again? Will MM2015 increase popularity in modern once again?

Yes, correct. I was on the phone this morning while reading and did a quick (wrong) calculation “29×1.06×1.02” iso “1.29×1.06×1.02” which indeed leads 39.47% increase!

You are correct in that it’s not technically correct…however, you’re also wrong.

If I have a number (say 12,000,000 which is one of the last “playerbase sizes” I recall WoTC having published). If I grow 29% from that I now have 15,480,000 players…if I now grow another 6% on top of that, I have 16,408,800 players and if I grow another 2% on top of that; I have 16,736,976. This new number is a total growth (compared to the 12,000,000 original number) of 39.47%, so for that I apologize.

Sven, the aim was to look at the mythics as individuals in the group, if you’re sitting on 10 copies of all the mythics in M2015 (when spoiled) it would be foolish to hold them all because 2 of the 15 last time went up…when the other 13 went down..as a whole the typical mythic in the set decreased, which is what I was going for. I do appreciate the challenge to my reasoning though

29%, 6% and another 2% would lead to only a 31.35% increase over three years!

The total value of MM2013 mythics actually increased from $414.55 to $426.32, so actually +2.8% increase. In other words, the EV (for mythics) went up!

You are taking averages of averages, which is not what you should be doing in this case 😉

That’s why I mentioned to use it at your own risk….Engineering 101 we learn we aren’t supposed to Extrapolate from data, however, the problem is if you only want to look at MM2013 prices in hindsight, there’s no real financial gain looking at the past (save if you want to just consider the price changes as an overall trend). While I definitely agree that the weighted equation should be taken with a grain of salt, I list my assumptions because there are a lot of unknowns. I agree that it wouldn’t be wise to take a card (once spoiled) current price…multiply by 0.49 and ONLY buy it when it hits that point…but I do feel like you might want to pick them up when they get within 10-15% of said price point.

I don’t…the 2.66 is only used as a factor to consider MM2015…I compared it the drop rate to MM2013 ONLY to show that the # has statistical relevance as a historical precedent shows a very similar overall drop rate. I apologize if this wasn’t clear enough.

But formula’s are probably worthless for MMA15.

Best thing is that this gives me the data to shut up people who thinks mythics will go up in price again, just because 2 of all mythics got a price bump.

MMA13 was before a growth in popularity in modern. MMA15 will launch after (or during) a popularity growth in modern.

Goyf and dark confidant were the cards for jund, the one and only champion in modern decks in 2013.

Thanks Mike. I really enjoyed writing this one, though it took a good amount of time gathering data, I think the information we can gather from the data itself is very useful and I know I personally plan on utilizing the trends noticed with regards to my acquisition of MM2015 cards.