Comments on: Modern MTGO Deep Dive: Win Rate Analysis (Part 2) https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/04/modern-mtgo-deep-dive-win-rate-analysis-part-2/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Wed, 06 May 2015 00:57:28 +0000 hourly 1 By: Option: Dezzo https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/04/modern-mtgo-deep-dive-win-rate-analysis-part-2/#comment-2120607 Wed, 06 May 2015 00:57:28 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=1445#comment-2120607 How about 8 Rack? I find it a niche but powerful deck that rears its ugly head once a while.

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By: Sheridan Lardner https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/04/modern-mtgo-deep-dive-win-rate-analysis-part-2/#comment-2120606 Wed, 22 Apr 2015 14:38:53 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=1445#comment-2120606 In reply to Tyrannon.

Spoiler alert! This is definitely the next step and articles are in the works that will discuss this. My article for today, publishing in about 1.5 hours, does just this for one of the format’s coolest new decks. Sample size starts to become an issue when calculating matchups, but as long as a deck has at least 10 or so appearances, we can get some sense of MWPs against specific decks. I also try to incorporate this data in the explanations for why decks are doing well, so you can see some of this interspersed throughout the article.

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By: Tyrannon https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/04/modern-mtgo-deep-dive-win-rate-analysis-part-2/#comment-2120605 Wed, 22 Apr 2015 13:44:55 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=1445#comment-2120605 For me the next step (in addition to increase the datasize) would be differentiating between Matchups. I don’t particularly care about my OverallWinrate, but against my winrate among specific decks. What is the Winrate between Twin and Esper Mentor? How hard does Merfolk actually lose to Affinity? etc.

We can go even further:
Winrates on the play, winrate on the draw in each matchup.
Winrate Preboard, winrate Postboard.

And NOW i will look for EsperMentor lists, because you got me fixed….Damn YOU!

greets Tyrannon

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By: Sheridan Lardner https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/04/modern-mtgo-deep-dive-win-rate-analysis-part-2/#comment-2120604 Tue, 21 Apr 2015 17:49:06 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=1445#comment-2120604 In reply to Capn Wracker.

@ Trollistar and Capn: Thanks for your support on the site! We’re trying to keep our content quality high, so let us know if there’s anything more (or less) you want to see.

As for reddit, just want to echo what Sean said. Feel free to post any of the links to spark off discussion.

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By: Sheridan Lardner https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/04/modern-mtgo-deep-dive-win-rate-analysis-part-2/#comment-2120603 Tue, 21 Apr 2015 17:46:54 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=1445#comment-2120603 In reply to Roland F. Rivera Santiago.

That’s not a bad idea at all. I think there are probably a few ways to pool small N decks that would make sense. As long as the rogue decks had relatively similar plans, even if their cards weren’t the same, we could probably group them without too much danger. I’ll look into it and see if there’s anything worth reporting!

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By: Sean Ridgeley https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/04/modern-mtgo-deep-dive-win-rate-analysis-part-2/#comment-2120602 Tue, 21 Apr 2015 15:48:59 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=1445#comment-2120602 In reply to Capn Wracker.

Thanks very much!

We fully encourage people to post/link our content to reddit as appropriate. We’re allowed to submit it ourselves provided we are active redditors and not just posting and leaving (though even then, some people get away with it). We submitted our “launch post” there and articles have been submitted by others, all to great reception, so please do!

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By: Trollistar https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/04/modern-mtgo-deep-dive-win-rate-analysis-part-2/#comment-2120601 Tue, 21 Apr 2015 04:27:20 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=1445#comment-2120601 In reply to Capn Wracker.

Just wanted to agree with Capn – I was a bit skeptical at first, but the content is incredibly good so far. Keep up the good work!

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By: Capn Wracker https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/04/modern-mtgo-deep-dive-win-rate-analysis-part-2/#comment-2120600 Mon, 20 Apr 2015 21:12:39 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=1445#comment-2120600 Two things of note:

1) I’ve been surprised and impressed by the quality of content here. The bold claim of “The Premiere site for Modern” has actually been substantiated nicely.

2) Do the rules of the /r/spikes forum allow posters to reference your articles to springboard discussions? I know that content creators can’t spam their work onto reddit or they get banned, and I’m not sure how you guys feel about potentially moving discussion of articles onto a forum not your own.

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By: Roland F. Rivera Santiago https://www.quietspeculation.com/2015/04/modern-mtgo-deep-dive-win-rate-analysis-part-2/#comment-2120599 Mon, 20 Apr 2015 19:01:05 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=1445#comment-2120599 Awesome stuff. I’m not surprised to see Sisters performing as well as they have, because of (as you astutely noted) excellent matchups against most of the aggro decks in Tier 1. My curiosity is piqued by your comment in the Esper Mentor Midrange section regarding decks like 5C Humans, Zombies, and Tooth and Nail. Would it be productive to maybe slap several of those decks with broad-strokes labels, such as “Rogue Aggro”, and then see if there’s anything there to be derived? I’m just thinking out loud here, but maybe if the “Rogue X” share does well enough, it’s a handy reminder to not get metagame tunnel-vision in a format with such a large card pool.

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