The idea is maximum synergy with Company. I used to run Chord but found it interfered with Company too much for my liking. But I may go back to a 2-2 Chord-Shaman split or use some other configuration – the advantages may well outweigh the disadvantages.

Devoted Druid has been a big help for me, getting me that extra bit of mana when I need it, getting me the combo win when otherwise I wouldn’t be able to win, allowing me to be be aggressive and defensive, helping me recover better after wrath, and allowing me to pay for things while still attacking. Still, I may drop some.

Thanks for these lists! Elves were my favorite tribe many many years ago and it’s nice to see them make a come back!

I didn’t see Mark of Asylum when looking through white options for some reason. Definitely a solid card. I’m more interested because it protects against Pyroclasm, but it’s certainly nice against those cards, too. I’d take out Tactics, an Ooze, or Worship for it. I’m not a big fan of including multiples of cards that do nothing in multiples, plus the less non-creature spells, the better Company is, so I’d just run the one, personally.

Good point about Junk, but it still works against Twin, Affinity, Delver, Jund, Bloom, Merfolk, etc.

Yeah I said that there were too many variables to ever really know 100%, but given his ratio its safe to say its over 90% most of the time. Good call though I dont really know how to do the math with that many variables.

Love this site and all the analysis you do. A few notes: why no mention of Mark of Asylum? That seems like one of the bigger draws for white, allowing you to assemble everything with nigh impunity. I understand you’d need to run 2-3 to see it often, but it beats facing down an army of lightning bolt, electrolyze, snapcasters.

With regards to worship, it may not be so good outside of burn. It stops damage, but not loss of life. If worship has an effect on the game, it means you got to 1 life. Junk can kill you with a siege rhino then. And if it is only for the burn matchup, I think simple life gain is better.

Your math is off, or you are making a bunch of assumptions that are not helpful for actual deck building. With 38 viable hits, you have a 97.85% chance to hit 2, and moving down to 37 makes it 97.31% chance. I still agree with your conclusion about craterhoof, but your math is not correct. You are giving only the odds for a very specific draw with X lands, X creatures, and X specific ratios in hand on turn 3.

4 mana is nothing for this deck and permanent effects are more useful than one time effects for us overall (keeping in mind we no artifacts or enchantments main excepting the 1-of Skite, and only one side, so they’re either not going to side in removal for it, or they’re going to lose more than they gain by doing so). It’s not about setting up a combo (we rarely combo), it’s just about grinding out decks with a lot of speed and/or removal, and also for beating Burn. That said, I’ve never actually played with Worship before, so I’m not 100% on it.

it’s better than nothing! I understand by turn 3 (earliest you could get it out) it’s not as relevant, but honestly if it even buys 1 extra turn that can make all the difference between winning and losing.

The calcs could never be 100% correct, it depends on how many creature/non-creatures you draw by the time you cast CC. But just taking your initial ratio and running the calcs, those are the percentages you would have. So it’s safe to say they are accurate with a couple % buffer for variation. at worst were looking at 96.3% chance to hit 2 creatures with 1 craterhoof, and that’s on turn 3 on the play with 2 lands in play, 2 mana dorks, and 4 more creatures in hand with converted mana cost 3 or less(aka removing the maximum amount of targets). With two you go to at WORST 95%, and thats running the calcs for you having all creatures in hand and no lands and spells (which it would be impossible to cast CC anyways because you have no lands in play).

This is the calculator i use:
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx

You’re sure that’s right? That doesn’t seem right. What if theoretically we run 2? I found when running 2 Chord, Company was getting me 1 creature a lot more than when I was running none.

Yeah I definitely considered it. Burn is extremely popular, and it’s a relevant card against some other top decks. It’s just so dead against a lot of others, too, which bothers me. But it’s a preference thing, so go for it if that’s your jam. I will say I’m not sure how effective it’d be against Burn as a 1-of, though, – I’m inclined to think not very.

sorry I meant 99.5% vs. 99.7%. My B

I like the addition of spellskite main, but I still think that if I was playing this deck in an MTGO event I would run one essence warden main to tutor for G1 just because of how prevalent burn/aggressive linear strategies are online. Thats just me though.

On the craterhoof thing, I ran the calcs on a hypergeometric calculator, and your chances of always hitting TWO creatures with CC drops from 99.8% of the time to 99.7%. And thats calculating for a turn 3 CC on the play, they go up if it’s cast any later in the game/ if youre on the draw. I still think that the singleton craterhoof would be worth it.

Reactive cards like Charm aren’t what we want in a deck like this. We need to be as proactive as possible, with any reactive effects serving as a bonus (like Company). Leaving up mana feels bad if we’re not a tempo deck. Charm has other modes but they’re unreliable/not very relevant. Decay is sweet but what do we really need it for? We can go over the top of or block/regen most creatures, and we don’t care about most other permanents. I might be missing some cards but I don’t think so. Legacy is NOT Modern. Very dangerous to think what works there works here.

I certainly considered maindeck silver bullets but decided against it. I think we’re best if we’re just a flat out Elves deck (with the exception of Ooze, but that has synergy with Shaman, so it gets a pass — you could make a case for Skite, too, since it protects our guys). Our silver bullets are just dead or bad against too many top decks for my liking (they’re good against a lot, too, but I don’t like being ~50/50), so I leave them to the side. That and yeah, it’s best with Chord, and Chord is bad with Company (in my experience and opinion, anyway). The hatebears/toolbox approach is better in other shells, I think, but this could just be my preferences showing.

I hate the anti-synergy between Hoof and Company, and Ezuri is as good or better 90% of the time anyway.

Edit: Made a bunch of tweaks to the list. Feels pretty slick now.