menu

My Worst Prediction Ever

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

In MTG finance, our success is somewhat predicated on our ability to predict the future. There are a lot of ways to approach this matter, but with it being spoiler season and all the best way to make the most money immediately on a new set is to properly evaluate the power level and projected popularity of the new cards.

A few spicy spoilers trickled in this weekend, with three more of the new two-sided planeswalkers spoiled. I'm a little floored by the potential of the new Jace (which you can check out here), but for now I'm trying to express caution. The reason being that like all nerds, I have the tendency to be a little excitable.

The most humbling story of missing on a new set release for me was when Shadowmoore launched and my pick for the card that would revolutionize Standard was... Augury Adept. Fortunately for me, this was well before I did much speculating, so I merely shelled out $20 on a single playset, but I must say that the impending thrashing I took at the first Standard tournament I played with the card was extremely humbling. Ophidian just wasn't what it used to be...


That wasn't the first time I picked wrong and it certainly wasn't the last. So now I'm curious- what's the worst card you've ever paid too much for upon release?

Avatar photo

Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

View More By Ryan Overturf

Posted in FreeTagged ,

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

8 thoughts on “My Worst Prediction Ever

      1. The QS notification through Twitter and the URL for this article reads “my worse prediction ever,” even though the title for your article uses correct grammar. I think he was pointing that out without being clear.

        My worst spec ever was probably Lingering Souls. I thought I was so crafty picking 100+ of those up for $0.75 – $1 in trade. Then they were reprinted on everything but the back of a grocery store receipt annnd now I have a lingering box of shame.

  1. Can’t find the name, but it’s the card that exiles all your creatures and returns them back at end of turn.
    bought a playset in preorder. Never did preorders again after that one.

  2. Grimoire Thief back in Morningtide. Traded a Thoughtseize, Bitterblossom, and Vendillion Clique for a playset…regretted it ever since. I also was obsessed with Tarmogoyf in Future Sight. As soon as he skyrocketed to $30 from being a bulk rare I sold off my 4 playsets and 1 foil….all for less than the price of one future sight foil now…fml

  3. I was forking out $20 cash for Abyssal Persecutors during the release of Worldwake. I even traded a Jace the Mindsculptor straight across for one. I wawas just convinced that demon was broken with cards like Bone Splinters and other sac outlets in standard. Of course the deck was completely outclassed by Baneslayer and Mindsculptor in U/W control.

  4. Almost a month late to be relevant to the article, but my worst prediction was when I was convinced Megrim was busted when Stronghold came out. I bought all that my LGS had (only 5 copies fortunately) and told anybody and everybody “That card is just busted. I can’t believe it is only an UNCOMMON!”. Then I built a discard deck that usually literally had no targets after turn 3 and died to just about anything on the battlefield. Oops.

Leave a Reply to Ryan Overturf Cancel reply

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.


Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.

Quiet Speculation