This is just a basic analysis from my glancing through the numbers and remembering my opinions from April. It would be good for you to take a closer look at the numbers than I did and maybe decide whether your strategy might need to be slightly altered on those cards rotating out in 6 months or less. For certain, there are cards that do amazingly late in their Standard term, but they are few and far between compared to the normal trend.

Previous targets remain moslty valid when prices are unchanged or lowered from when we thought they were good buying targets. Some time a new info could make a target less attractive even if the price remains the same or is lower. But in general a good target is a good target as long the price doesn’t increase too much.

That’s a good suggestion. The vast majority of our suggestions are usually more a matter of timing than a matter of price, unless the price gets really too far off the range it is when we recommend it. For the case of Rending Volley for instance, anything between 0.01 and 0.3 is probably a decent price range since we expect this unco to break the 1 Tix bar at some point. This being said, even 0.5 Tix could still be a decent buy and this is where it’s up to each speculator to make the call.

For Damnation for instance, the selling price is inaccurate as the value at the time we recommended selling was around 15 Tix and not 2.7 Tix. The cumulative table is correct on that one though.

KotR has clearly been sold a little bit too early. But this is a rather rare example, and we have counter example where we should have sold earlier and have missed a peak a the time. I would actually argue that we are holding on too long for several positions.

Cycles is what is expected in average but on a case by case basis selling early with a loss is not necessarily a bad thing. It is not easy to track what has been done with the Tix collected from a losing positions being closed. These Tix could be even more profitable elsewhere that waiting for an unsure rebound.

Also, although I agree on the almost inevitability of cycles, especially with Modern, it is not a correct approach to judge a spec few months later while other events have occurred and have affected the price of the spec.

For ex. we are still holding on Vengevine, which has dropped by 50% since we bought it. There’s a long way to go to generate a profit on that one. It may have probably been better to sell it for more ORI positions for instance.

I though about the positive (or negative) impact of a higher inventory turnover. Once the 100Tix1Year project is over it would be interesting to see how the turnover of my positions and thus know the average gain/loss and holding time for my specs. We could do the same type of analysis after one year of MMR recommendations, although we’ll probably be holding a decent amount of open positions.