Comments on: Shadows Set Review Pt. 2 and Post-Banning Theorycrafting https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Mon, 04 Apr 2016 03:56:16 +0000 hourly 1 By: Trevor Holmes https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125129 Mon, 04 Apr 2016 03:56:16 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125129 In reply to bunger1216.

I would play Vexing Devil over this, and Vexing Devil is bad. Past Guide/Swiftspear/and 2+ Grim Lavamancer are we really looking for more one drops? If Zoo wanted more they would just go back to Wild Nacatl, I guess we could imagine a metagame where we need a bunch of one drops but want to stay mono-color for damage purposes, but in that fictional metagame if we’re starting to look at cards like this why aren’t we just playing affinity? Memnite is probably just better…

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By: Trevor Holmes https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125128 Mon, 04 Apr 2016 03:51:06 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125128 In reply to Alexis Fougères.

I didn’t think long on this card, primarily because there aren’t many existing (or fringe) B/W decks that are interested in this type of effect. Token decks are more worried about discard than problematic permanents (other than hard hitting creatures like Goyf) and for that they already have Path/Dismember. Were we suddenly in a format where Jeskai Ascendancy/Pyromancer’s Ascension/Blood Moon/Ensnaring Bridge were all over the place than possibly, it just doesn’t seem that great of a card to begin with.

Add in that most B/W lists often have access to G for Abrupt Decay/Maelstrom Pulse (which are both much stronger cards) and the archetypes that would be interested in this type of effect assuming that it is good enough is very slim. So, not “no chance”, but probably low chance.

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By: Trevor Holmes https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125127 Mon, 04 Apr 2016 03:48:00 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125127 In reply to Darcy Hartwick.

I agree with you that I don’t think Arlinn would make the cut. Maybe as a replacement for Huntmaster of the Fells in some Jund lists, but I haven’t had a chance to test with it yet to find out.

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By: Trevor Holmes https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125126 Mon, 04 Apr 2016 03:46:33 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125126 In reply to Jacob Kellogg.

Jacob,

My issues with Relentless Dead mainly come down to how often we’re taking advantage of its ability. In a Zombie aggro deck looking to curve out, do you think we’ll have the extra B up often enough to get value out of it? If it returned to the battlefield a la Gravecrawler it would be worth it, but as it is I’m not excited to pay a B to “draw” a BB 2/2 that I will be then replaying on a later turn. Dropping this guy on Turn 3 or 4 doesn’t really interest me, it’s “just” a 2/2 menace for 2.

The other ability seems even more difficult to activate, sure, when topdecking we get to bring back Geralf’s Messenger or something if they Bolt our guy. I just don’t see us using that ability naturally over the course of the game unless we’re leaving up mana consistently, or using the ability to “sneak” through damage on our turn past a blocker (de-incentivizing blocking) which probably won’t be happening in the first place as he has menace.

Sounds a little like rambling, I’m just thinking through when this ability would come up naturally in a game and while synergistic, it seems like we have to jump through hoops to get it to work.

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By: Trevor Holmes https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125125 Mon, 04 Apr 2016 03:41:11 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125125 In reply to Roland F. Rivera Santiago.

Roland,

I agree with all your points, the more I look at Thalia’s Lieutenant in Humans the more I’m impressed. Champion of the Parish is definitely the best as it’s a one drop, but getting to anthem our team for just one more mana is absolutely huge, Thalia’s Lieutenant is a definite game-changer.

Thing in the Ice is interesting and is a card I will be looking forward to testing out once the set releases! Let me know if you get any games in with it!

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By: Jacob Kellogg https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125124 Fri, 01 Apr 2016 16:49:16 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125124 In reply to Neil Philip.

I’m not even thinking of a “zombies deck”. Even without a single other zombie in your deck, he’s a value engine, and having even a single other low-cost zombie in your deck makes him even better. I want to put him next to Kalitas, I want to put him in a deck with a Madness splash, I want to put him in a deck with Tidehollow Sculler… Maybe all at once.

Don’t think “zombie deck”. Think “deck that could use a self-recurring 2-drop in black”.

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By: Darcy Hartwick https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125123 Fri, 01 Apr 2016 16:34:07 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125123 In reply to Chris Striker.

no. Liliana comes in and either gets out of bolt range immediately (with a pretty relevant ability at that) or does something valuable before dying to the bolt (ie generating a 2-for-1).

Arlinn Kord comes in and either makes a wolf and gets bolted, or pumps a creature and doesnt get bolted (and cant use her only good ability either until you do make that wolf). Pumping creatures is not very good as there are too many situations where it means nothing. Maybe you don’t have a dude. Maybe it can’t attack even if its pumped. Maybe they kill it in response. Maybe they chump with a souls token. Sometimes all your liliana does is eats a souls token or half a kitchen finks, but that’s still way more reliable than kords + ability. And abrupt decay is barely played with twin gone so it is not the factor it used to be in terms of mana costs.

The only thing arlinn kord has in common with liliana of the veil is that they are both planeswalkers.

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By: bunger1216 https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125122 Fri, 01 Apr 2016 08:40:05 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125122 Could village messenger be viable as a sub par goblin guide?

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By: Alexis Fougères https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125121 Fri, 01 Apr 2016 01:51:17 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125121 Is there really no chance that anguished unmaking sees some modern play?

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By: Neil Philip https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125120 Thu, 31 Mar 2016 23:48:41 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125120 In reply to Jacob Kellogg.

I definately agree and was going to say the same thing but you beat me to it. 🙂

If for no other reason, I think it’ll see some fringe play in a zombies shell that undoubtedly many people will try (myself included), with the argument that all the deck needed was a good two drop to be ported from standard to modern.

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By: Neil Philip https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125119 Thu, 31 Mar 2016 23:26:45 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125119 In reply to Roland F. Rivera Santiago.

Well I have to say first-off that I haven’t played a lot vs GBx since the Eldrazi take over, but that’s because I haven’t seen it played much by others.

Kalitas is definitely one of their best cards in the matchup (probably the best). Like scooze or Olivia (but even moreso), if they can land him before you can combo or pull aways ahead and you have no answer to him, yes he takes over. But they still have to hit those conditions first. Damnations are less crippling, but can still be a major pain. Getting them together probably equals a win for GBx. But just because Kalitas can cause pseudo-blowouts doesn’t make the matchup bad – it just means you have to have an answer for him if you haven’t killed them/almost killed them before he hits the table.

The other thing to keep in mind is that most Abzan coco lists are currently tuned to beat Eldrazi and affinity, which means being built to be faster rather than resilient. That means giving up some percentage vs the less-played, slower decks like GBx or UW control. If GBx rises back to the top post-Eldrazi, Coco builds will adjust and go back to being more resilient.

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By: Chris Striker https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125118 Thu, 31 Mar 2016 18:54:32 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125118 Darcy Hartwick, you’re forgetting about Liliana of the Veil in your PW in Modern analysis. She also enters with 3 loyalty counters, and is by far the best ‘walker in the format. Arlinn’s CMC 4 in comparison is actually a boon in this regard: she also dodges Abrupt Decay, unlike LotV. I’m very much on Team Kord in Modern. Her +1 may require a creature to gain maximum benefit, but I don’t think the format will have sped up to the point that a resolved Arlinn cannot win you the game on her own. Unlike any other walker except Sorin, Solemn Visitor, she is able to produce an army and power it up (while also giving us lightning bolt 5+). Also like SSV, whose +1 requires a board presence in order to be useful, Arlinn will very likely see Modern play, though perhaps not in Jund. I think RUG decks will make great use of her, as it’s one more Queen to protect in a tempo shell with significant added utility for a variety of board states.

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By: Roland F. Rivera Santiago https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125117 Thu, 31 Mar 2016 18:05:22 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125117 In reply to Neil Philip.

Is that still the case with the advent of Kalitas? I’ve seen Abzan Company curl up and die when that card hits the board. And these days there are 1-2 Damnation floating around in the main, in addition to the Scavenging Oozes that were always there. I think Abzan Company may have been favored in a pre-OGW meta, but I don’t think that is the case right now.

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By: Darcy Hartwick https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125116 Thu, 31 Mar 2016 17:44:27 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125116 I’d be betting on prized amalgam seeing play in dredge decks, possibly making them competitive. Card looks very strong. I like relentless dead too, but I’m not sure zombies as a midrange attrition deck can do anything bgx decks don’t already do better. Arlinn kord is not going to see serious play – people will try it, but so far the list of planeswalker that see modern play thanks to buffing creatures is – zero. And the number that see play that die immediately to a bolt? Incidentally also zero. It could surprise us, but all the evidence points to a flop does it not?

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By: Neil Philip https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125115 Thu, 31 Mar 2016 17:27:14 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125115 In reply to Roland F. Rivera Santiago.

Abzan Cocos matchup is actually pretty good vs GBx, my experience is about 55-60% win, since you can actually grind really well as a backup plan.

The Tron matchup, on the other hand, is awful – probably 25-30%. Other sub 50% matchups are Elves and RUG scapeshift. Other fast combo decks, like Grishoalbrand and Ad Nauseam are dicey, but your sb helps a lot.

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By: Jacob Kellogg https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125114 Thu, 31 Mar 2016 16:59:10 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125114 I agree about Asylum Visitor looking promising, but I’m a little surprised you don’t think Relentless Dead has any shot at all. I mean sure, it’s vulnerable to graveyard hate, but weaker cards than RD have been vulnerable to graveyard hate and still seen play. Heck, I’d be considering it even if it didn’t have its last ability at all, or if the last ability could only hit additional RDs. I think it’s got a solid chassis worth taking a look at; the fact that it can recur a Tidehollow Sculler or Fleshbag Marauder when it dies is just gravy. I think it should at least make your “Niche” list.

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By: Roland F. Rivera Santiago https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125113 Thu, 31 Mar 2016 16:58:04 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125113 In reply to Roland F. Rivera Santiago.

Quick clarification since it seems that I misphrased a couple of things – I meant to say that Abzan Company has a questionable matchup against BGx Midrange and RG Tron.

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By: Roland F. Rivera Santiago https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/03/shadows-set-review-pt-2-and-post-banning-theorycrafting/#comment-2125112 Thu, 31 Mar 2016 16:57:06 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8664#comment-2125112 I’m 100% with you on Thalia’s Lieutenant being very strong. I’m thinking of jamming it and Champion of the Parish into Soul Sisters (where the creatures were mostly Human anyway), and perhaps adding some token-producers such as Gather the Townsfolk. This basically gives you a White Weenie Plan A with a Lifegain Combo Plan B.

I like Thing in the Ice in control decks (including Grixis) – its transition from defense to wincon is pretty good value for that sort of deck, and I don’t think you’re all that mad if it gets Pathed (since it can’t be Bolted).

On the subject of the post-Eldrazi world, I think Affinity is the clear “deck to beat” – Abzan has questionable matchups against BGx and Tron (particularly the latter), and the shares for those will rise enough to suppress it. Living End, as you mentioned, dies to graveyard hate and control decks, which we will also see more of. Given the tools available to stymie it, I also don’t expect much to be done with regards to future bannings, as it’s hard to envision a scenario in which it’s over 10% of the meta before being beaten back by waves of hate.

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