Comments on: Metagame Projections for the New Modern https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/metagame-projections-new-modern/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Thu, 14 Apr 2016 19:00:59 +0000 hourly 1 By: Sheridan Lardner https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/metagame-projections-new-modern/#comment-2125278 Thu, 14 Apr 2016 19:00:59 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8915#comment-2125278 In reply to Mike Papadopoulos.

It would have been hard for me to give any more disclaimers about the limits of this sample, which are everywhere in the article. There’s literally a paragraph about it, on top of numerous other smaller mentions. Based on what data we do have, we can draw some limited conclusions on format themes (that get more limited as we move down from Tier 1 to Tier 2), and that’s exactly what happened here. Plenty of players and authors have drawn conclusions on a single event in SCG Baltimore, and we are going to do the same thing here with an additional 23 tournaments and over 100 new decks.

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By: Mike Papadopoulos https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/metagame-projections-new-modern/#comment-2125277 Thu, 14 Apr 2016 18:54:05 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8915#comment-2125277 I’m not sure if there’s enough of a sample size here to draw conclusions. The difference between Tiers 2 and 3 appears to be whether a deck appears 3 or 4 times, and the difference between Tier 1 and 2 appears 5 or 6 times. The only confident conclusions that I can draw from this regards the top 4 decks being sold Tier 1 bets.

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By: Sheridan Lardner https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/metagame-projections-new-modern/#comment-2125276 Wed, 13 Apr 2016 23:26:53 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8915#comment-2125276 In reply to Zach Stackhouse.

I wouldn’t say they want aggro at first. The huge uptick in Grixis Midrange (from Tier 3 obscurity to Tier 1) and Jund’s early head start are great indicators of a healthy format. That said, I expect to get at least one more fair deck in Tier 1, whether another blue-based deck or a Company deck. Aggro should stick around, but the format should feel much slower than it has in the past. Win-win for Modern!

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By: Sheridan Lardner https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/metagame-projections-new-modern/#comment-2125275 Wed, 13 Apr 2016 23:25:30 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8915#comment-2125275 In reply to Jordan Boisvert.

He’s older than an Eldrazi hedron, but not quite as ceaselessly hungry as another candidate.

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By: Sheridan Lardner https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/metagame-projections-new-modern/#comment-2125274 Wed, 13 Apr 2016 23:24:32 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8915#comment-2125274 In reply to Tim Estes.

Fixed! Thanks for that catch; would probably have missed it for a while. Glad you enjoyed the metagame update! Stay tuned for more next week.

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By: Sheridan Lardner https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/metagame-projections-new-modern/#comment-2125273 Wed, 13 Apr 2016 23:22:39 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8915#comment-2125273 In reply to Roland F. Rivera Santiago.

Jund’s presence at the top is surprising to many, but I’m not sure why. Although AV is an uphill battle for the Jund mage, it’s a much better answer-deck for the aggressive strategies which struggle against Bolt. Moreover, with RG Tron out of the picture in any serious way, the deck looks much better than it was even before Eldrazi. I expect it to stay around Tier 1 for a while.

That said, the Company decks in Tier 3 (and Tier 3 generally) should move around a lot as the format keeps growing. I expect plenty of those decks to make it into Tier 2 within a month.

As for Eldrazi, it’s only been GW and BW so far, although I’m sure that will change as we get more events added.

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By: Jordan Boisvert https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/metagame-projections-new-modern/#comment-2125272 Wed, 13 Apr 2016 21:38:14 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8915#comment-2125272 Rude of you to call Bernie Sanders “Eldrazi-like,” even if he is as old as Kozilek.

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By: Ricardo Takeda https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/metagame-projections-new-modern/#comment-2125271 Wed, 13 Apr 2016 19:41:33 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8915#comment-2125271 In reply to Roland F. Rivera Santiago.

Hard to kill the “best 3 colors of modern goodstuff” deck.
That’s pretty much it’s greatest strength.

Now we just need a few good counterspells and make BUG/Sultai midrange a T1 deck and I’ll be happy man 🙂

Company decks will likely bounce back. Since the article itself pointed out the sample is quite small (not to mention the time since the banlist shift), I’m inclined to say It was just a meta call for these first few events.

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By: Zach Stackhouse https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/metagame-projections-new-modern/#comment-2125270 Wed, 13 Apr 2016 19:26:57 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8915#comment-2125270 It almost looks like the new standard in that people generally went aggro at first. Once the top aggro and to some extent combo decks are established, control and metagame decks will emerge.

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By: Tim Estes https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/metagame-projections-new-modern/#comment-2125269 Wed, 13 Apr 2016 17:23:43 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8915#comment-2125269 Your profile info still says “Editor in Chief” :).
Nitpicks aside, this was a wonderful article to read. Truly a job well done.

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By: Roland F. Rivera Santiago https://www.quietspeculation.com/2016/04/metagame-projections-new-modern/#comment-2125268 Wed, 13 Apr 2016 16:45:17 +0000 http://34.200.137.49/?p=8915#comment-2125268 Interesting to see Jund at the top of the heap after all of the doomsaying regarding the rise of the Thopter overlords (Reid Duke, of all people, was saying he wouldn’t play Jund in Modern. Reid Duke!). BGx Midrange truly is the format’s Terminator.

On the other hand, I am surprised to see a deck like Abzan Company languishing in Tier 3 (when it was widely predicted to be Tier 1 in the coming meta), while Kiki Chord is living it up in Tier 2. I get that the meta is currently geared pretty strongly toward aggro, but Kiki’s slower combo kill arguably makes it softer toward that sort of deck than Abzan Company, doubly so if the attackers are evasive. I know, I know, small sample size, but it’s still odd.

Lastly… do we have any data on what the Eldrazi decks that did show up look like? I’m guessing they will be Colorless Stompy decks in line with what Jordan presented on Friday, but I’d like to be sure.

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