I can tell you as a Burn player that I’m not at all concerned. The major most popular decks I see taking advantage of these lands are the mirror, Infect, Abzan, Grixis Control and Delver, and Jeskai. We can take the mirror out of the conversation, and Trevor already covered Jund versus Abzan accurately. The rest of the metagame will keep it in check, and I think we’re favored on Abzan regardless from sheer racing ability. Infect and Delver are some of our strongest matchups, and its not because they shock themselves for two at the start of the game. It’s because they rely on protecting a handful of threats, and our deck is made up of kill spells. Our game plan is the same; kill their threat and play the long game with our superior consistency.

The major decks I see this having an effect are Grixis Control and, moreso Jeskai Nahiri. I’m not even sure it strengthens Grixis Control that much because they don’t often have the lifegain to take advantage of it, and the deck is in recession right now anyways. Either we race them before they land a Delve threat or we Path to Exile or Deflecting Palm it, or we don’t. The fastland does help them, but not a huge amount. Nahiri Jeskai warrants discussion. They have the Lightning Helixes and Timely Reinforcements to make strong use of saving every bit of life they can from us, and Nahiri is harder for us to answer than a Delve threat. Does this worsen our matchup versus them? Absolutely, and it needs to be accounted for. Is it enough to take Burn off the map? Like I said, I’m not at all concerned.

Samuel,

I have not tested the switch, but I have played Sulfur Falls in Jeskai/Grixis enough to comment on that card specifically.

Sulfur Falls is often great, but can get us into trouble particularly in Jeskai, where we have four Celestial Colonnade and often 2 colorless lands. It doesn’t happen often, but there are hands where we dont have a dual, or need RW on turn 2 for Sulfur Falls and have to fetch to make it happen (either fetching a tapped shock on turn one when we’d rather play Colonnade, or playing Colonnade and have to fetch a basic or shock later). Doesn’t happen often, but enough that it has made an impression.

Now, in those situations would we rather exchange the possibility of awkwardness in the early turns for a 5th-6th land that comes in tapped in the midgame? I think if we’re living to turn 5/6 we’re often fine anyways, so I’m leaning towards moving away from Sulfur Falls. Still, there is an opportunity cost there we have to keep in mind.

Trevor

Beau,

You make good points, and I don’t have extensive experience with both decks personally but have played against both extensively. In my opinion, I disagree that Jund is played ‘because of Blackcleave Cliffs’. Lightning Bolt is much better against most creatures than Path to Exile, Raging Ravine is much preferred to either Shambling Vent or Stirring Wildwood, Kolaghan’s Command is too different from Souls to compare but Souls probably gets the edge, and then there’s Terminate.

I think it’s safer to say that Jund is played more due to its efficiency and strength against the field, while Abzan is better against a specific look. Blackcleave Cliffs does good work in Jund, but by no means does it ‘make the deck’.

Thanks,
Trevor

Jesse,

In some Grixis lists I’ve been known to play two Darkslick Shores, depending on if I’m playing maindeck discard or not. In those decks I’m usually playing Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, and the ability to dodge Choke with another pseudo-Island like Creeping Tar Pit is helpful in corner scenarios.

Darkslick Shores was preferred to Blackcleave Cliffs in those situations because I couldn’t cast Serum Visions T1 off a Blackcleave, but I can definitely see the UR land replacing Darkslick as a way to cast Lightning Bolt on T1 without having to shock (or fetch basic Mountain, as you said).

Does this fundamentally shift any matchups, however? Burn can be close depending on if we’re building for it, but I’m not sure the extra two life (not having to shock on T1) to kill a Goblin Guide changes the matchup in any significant manner. This was the premise of the article. I expect to play some number of the UR land in Grixis depending on my configuration, but I don’t expect the change to sponsor any significant shifts in the metagame.

Thanks,
Trevor

Roland,

I agree, and hopefully I made my position clear in the article that ‘significant impact’ excludes small play in a few archetypes here and there. Blackcleave Cliffs does great things in Jund, but the deck would look relatively the same without it, and probably play out very similar in many matches. Just look to the matches where Jund doesn’t draw Blackcleave; this is how those games will play out were Blackcleave Cliffs not in the format. I’ve yet to find a Jund player lamenting ‘not drawing Blackcleave Cliffs’ as the reason they lost the match.

I think we can apply this same thinking to most archetypes across the board; some manabases will get slightly better, which could shift a couple points here and there. I’m looking for significant changes: Burn dropping out of top tier because everyone has much better mana; a deck that couldn’t compete can now do so. I don’t think that will happen, which was the premise of my article.

Thanks,
Trevor

Decklist?

I’m interested to hear your feedback, even more interested to see an example from this ‘huge swath of decks’ that weren’t viable and are now.

How will the U/R land fundamentally change Modern? You’ve made some bold claims in two sentences and have my interest!

Noah,

You make good points and I agree with everything you’ve said. I think we most likely will see a situation where a couple decks in the format take on average (over a many game set) 1 or maybe 2 less damage over the course of a game. Whether that shift will be enough to change gameflow within certain matchups is hard to tell, but I think that’s the only “impact” enemy fastlands could sponsor in Modern.

The way I see it is: the only time that Sulfur Falls is strictly better than Spirebuff Canal is if it is the 4th land you draw, delaying Nahiri by a whole turn. Jeskai plays relatively easily with 4 lands so the 5th entering tapped is no problem, and Spirebuff comes in untapped even if the rest of your hand is plains and Celestials.

Has anyone else got any thoughts/done any tests?

Dude that is an excellent point. Not so much which decks these lands buff but the side effect of nerfing burn. I find it funny how I win 3 out of 5 games vs burn or zoo with my budget mono green stompy because of my 23 forests not dealing dmg to me. It’s only 1-3 life points that determine games. It doesn’t seem like much but in a environment like modern that 1 little life point determines games vs burn (which is my main go-to deck in modern). Other than that, infect welcomes the UG land, Abzan like the WB one, UR = painless bolt or serum visions T1, and I for one will be using the BG one in Living End. The UR has to be the best tho.

Blackcleave is the reason you play Jund over Abzan against the field, and while pathing a threat on t1 or during their upkeep isn’t ideal it falls right in line with their removal package and play patterns. Not having to give burn or affinty and additional -3 / -5 in life is huge, those decks no longer get that virtual card advantage they’ve gotten since the dawn of Modern. With concealed courtyard Abzan will become the GBx deck de jour because of the new fastland and collective brutality escalating binning souls.

Grixis and Delver have desperately wanted a UR fastland forever, to either play delver bolt or serum or if on the draw hold up bolt/scour.

No one is saying burn is going to fall off the map as its a great intro deck for new comers to modern but it will be taking a further step back.

There is a huge swath of decks that weren’t previously viable because they couldn’t beat burn AND the rest of the field, now they have a land to turn that around

For the most part, I agree with you. I don’t think these new lands will be the next KTK fetches. One thing I do want to note is that the red/blue fastland may have a home in Jeskai Nahiri, as it lets you leave up mana for Bolt or Spell Snare without shocking yourself, in the same way Jund can Bolt or discard with Blackcleave Cliffs. This in turn lets you fetch a basic white on turn two and meet all your colors at 19 life. Similarly, I see these as strengthening aggressive two color decks (or decks that only splash a third color) against their aggressive matchups, specifically the RW land in Burn and the UG land in Infect. If this becomes popular, it means the big three aggro-combo decks of the format (Burn, Infect, Affinity) all have a minimally painless manabase to go off of. This might be scary, or it might turn the tide from trying to race them into trying to answer them, allowing for more diversity in the format as answers don’t just stay secondary to faster threats. Outside of this, however, I see somewhat limited use for these lands. Great article!